What are Trump's Chances in 2020? With poll.

cpwill said:

Which is why it would be foolish of Democrats to let him make 2020 a major policy election, with them holding a far left position. They'd be far better off neutralizing policy, and making this a referendum on his personal behavior.
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I'll refute the notion that this is a "far left" position
70% support M4A
76% for raising taxes on the wealthiest
45% supporting free college BUT 57% support 50K in loan forgiveness

It's a bit odd to think of over half of america as far left isn't it?

70 percent of Americans support 'Medicare for all' proposal | TheHill
Most Americans Support Increasing Taxes on the Wealthy: Poll | Fortune
Poll: Voters Oppose Free College, Loan Forgiveness

Fruityfact said:

I'll refute the notion that this is a "far left" position
70% support M4A

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Until they learn anything about it, such as that it would have to be paid for somehow, or that the proponents of it are trying to end private health insurance.

76% for raising taxes on the wealthiest
45% supporting free college BUT 57% support 50K in loan forgiveness

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Sure, again, until we have to pay for it, and support drops.

It's a bit odd to think of over half of america as far left isn't it?

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I wholeheartedly encourage you and as many Democrats as you can convince to continue to think this. Maybe you should argue for the nationalization of major industry, and child sex change operations without parental consent as well. Insist on it as a litmus test for candidates

cpwill said:

Until they learn anything about it, such as that it would have to be paid for somehow, or that the proponents of it are trying to end private health insurance.

Sure, again, until we have to pay for it, and support drops.

I wholeheartedly encourage you and as many Democrats as you can convince to continue to think this. Maybe you should argue for the nationalization of major industry, and child sex change operations without parental consent as well. Insist on it as a litmus test for candidates

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A position that a majority of Americans support is not far left. You and your party are just far right.
Maybe you should argue for the gassing of separated amnesty seekers? Insist on it as a litmus test for republicans.

cpwill said:

Depends on what you mean by "actions". His policy positions trend to be more popular than he is, due to his poor behavior and personal actions.

Which is why it would be foolish of Democrats to let him make 2020 a major policy election, with them holding a far left position. They'd be far better off neutralizing policy, and making this a referendum on his personal behavior. But, the Left has the bit in it's teeth, and the candidates seem pretty well cowed. Indeed, with a majority disapproving. Personally, I think it's embarrassing he's as high as he is with Republicans, but, the siren call of tribalism is a strong one.

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The context of this discussion is the 2020 general election. Trump's policies are the correct focus. This is why it is incorrect to say that a majority of people disapprove of his actions.

The Democrats find themselves in a situation similar to the that of the Republicans in 2006 and 2008. The party fragmented, with an old guard holding power long enough to nominate one of their own in 2008. Both elections were a disaster for the party but they emerged stronger in 2010, winning back much of their losses. In this case, the Democrats have a general election up first but I do not expect resolution to come before 2022 is in the books. Power struggles tend to take time.

Fruityfact said:

A position that a majority of Americans support is not far left. You and your party are just far right.
Maybe you should argue for the gassing of separated amnesty seekers? Insist on it as a litmus test for republicans.

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I am not a Republican but I agree more with him. Medicare for All only sounds good until you start looking closely. It is really Medicare for None.

Free college is pie in the sky, like M4A, but it could be done on a reasonable scale, say two years post-HS. The idea of four full years is what makes it far left.

The problem the party has is that these are candy positions. Meat and potato positions--the economy, jobs, law and order, international affairs, etc.--belong to the Republicans. While you were busy claiming he is uncouth and waiting for St. Mueller's rescue, Trump stole the whole podium out from under you.

If Democrats put up somebody who energizes their base, they win. If they put up somebody lackluster, they won’t.

Mycroft said:

None of the above.

It is 150% certain Trump will win.

Keep in mind that the **** is going to hit the fan that will prove the Dems, the Obama administration and some Republicans broke the law and actively conspired to try to prevent Trump from winning his election...and when they failed, they worked to sabotage his Presidency.

That will ensure his victory in 2020.

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As of now it's even money that he wins, if as you say it's understood that the evil doers on the other side
are exposed, which isn't a given as I see it, then Trump should win easily! That would be a win for Amrica.

Politics Other Sports Money Line
2020 US Presidential Election
Sun 11/10 101 Trump wins Presidential Election -105
8:00AM 102 Field wins Presidential Election -125

Helix said:

it's difficult to predict this far out. if the Democrats actually show up this time around, they have a chance.

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Define Democrats "showing up" if you don't mind. Are you talking about voters or the DNC actually putting up someone who can win?

Mr. Invisible said:

Define Democrats "showing up" if you don't mind. Are you talking about voters or the DNC actually putting up someone who can win?

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Let's hope. I would consider a 2008 level of participation or better "showing up." Additionally, though I don't see a real standout yet, every candidate in the field is preferable to Trump.

Jay59 said:

I am not a Republican but I agree more with him. Medicare for All only sounds good until you start looking closely. It is really Medicare for None.

Free college is pie in the sky, like M4A, but it could be done on a reasonable scale, say two years post-HS. The idea of four full years is what makes it far left.

The problem the party has is that these are candy positions. Meat and potato positions--the economy, jobs, law and order, international affairs, etc.--belong to the Republicans. While you were busy claiming he is uncouth and waiting for St. Mueller's rescue, Trump stole the whole podium out from under you.

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How about instead of listening to the media, you just go learn how much things cost by yourself? Your vague statements show me that your really haven't done the research to substantiate your "independent" arguments.

slick said:

As of now it's even money that he wins, if as you say it's understood that the evil doers on the other side
are exposed, which isn't a given as I see it, then Trump should win easily! That would be a win for Amrica.

Politics Other Sports Money Line
2020 US Presidential Election
Sun 11/10 101 Trump wins Presidential Election -105
8:00AM 102 Field wins Presidential Election -125

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If the election were held today,* Biden would win. He's three times outside the margin of error, which would give him an easy victory.**

As of today, Warren and Harris are only 2% ahead of Trump, well within the margin of error. Personally, I predict that Biden's star will continue to fade and Warren's and Harris's will continue to rise, eventually breaking well outside the MoE.

But the poll isn't asking who would win if the election were held today, but who will win in 2020, and that's just completely impossible to speculate on this early on.






*Yes, I know, it isn't going to be held today.
** This of course requires that voters show up at 2008 and 2018 levels.

cpwill said:

Yeah - it depends a lot on who Democrats pick. If they decide go to Full Socialism And Forcible Social Justice.....

....well, that hands Trump a fantastic platform to run against.

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I am worried that the Dems are moving too far to the left to win. No one that ran as a hard core leftist has ever won the presidency. Trump is an utterly despicable human being and a shameful embarrassment to this country. A decent, moderate / center left candidate should be able to easily beat him. The only way Trump wins is if the Democrats are dumb enough to run someone way too far to the left.

Cardinal said:

If Democrats put up somebody who energizes their base, they win. If they put up somebody lackluster, they won’t.

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The idea of the swing voters determining the election is largely a myth.

They are only like 3-4% of the public and most often split 50-50 anyways, which cancels out their usefulness.

MovingPictures said:

The idea of the swing voters determining the election is largely a myth.

They are only like 3-4% of the public and most often split 50-50 anyways, which cancels out their usefulness.

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Woulda been nice to have had that 3-4% in 2016.

SouthernDemocrat said:

I am worried that the Dems are moving too far to the left to win. No one that ran as a hard core leftist has ever won the presidency. Trump is an utterly despicable human being and a shameful embarrassment to this country. A decent, moderate / center left candidate should be able to easily beat him. The only way Trump wins is if the Democrats are dumb enough to run someone way too far to the left.

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Republicans campaign on promising to jail women for abortions, rip immigrant families apart, repealing the ACA, giving guns to lunatics, and undercutting worker protections every year.

They have no problem winning.

Cardinal said:

Woulda been nice to have had that 3-4% in 2016.

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It split about even for both candidates anyways.

It would have been way nicer to have had the 2008 or even 2012 turnout.

MovingPictures said:

It split about even for both candidates anyways.

It would have been way nicer to have had the 2008 or even 2012 turnout.

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Yes, but when you don't, then that extra little bit of cushioning is awful nice.

As I've said before, the wild card is the Democratic base.

If they fall in line with their candidate as the Republican base does, they'll win.

If they play another round of purity tests and both-sider-ism, they'll lose.

And Russia knows it.

Jay59 said:

The title says it. Open 180 days

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Voted "Very likely" or 75% to 95%.

The same number of idiots that voted for him before will be voting for him again plus all the folks not really politically astute will vote for him because they won't want to change horses (no matter the nasty nag we are riding) in mid stream if unemployment stays down and the market stays up.
Then you have younger voters who have never seen a one term president so they will vote for scum Donald cause they will think it is only fair.
But I have been predicting a second Trump term since January of 2017.

Polls have been TOTALLY effective in predicting the outcome of elections.......

People vote based on their bias and slant I reckon everything will depend on what people end up voting for. If the majority of voters are bent on their hatred and their pathetic greed for all the free things rats promise...they will vote democrat

SouthernDemocrat said:

I am worried that the Dems are moving too far to the left to win. No one that ran as a hard core leftist has ever won the presidency. Trump is an utterly despicable human being and a shameful embarrassment to this country. A decent, moderate / center left candidate should be able to easily beat him. The only way Trump wins is if the Democrats are dumb enough to run someone way too far to the left.

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Every time Warren and Sanders repeated their lines about wealth inequality and how the economy isn't working for everyone, I kept thinking, as true as that may be, if our economy remains in overall decent shape going into late 2020, that kind of economic populism won't fly. Voters tend to side with the incumbent when the economy is doing okay.

I think the Democratic base is taking a big risk by going after Biden as hard as they went after Hillary. They keep wanting to play the enthusiasm card while forgetting that there are voters out there who believe that they will be voting for the lesser of two evils. As dumb as that line is, their vote still counts, maybe even more statistically since they are the swing voters.

And now they're going after Harris, falsely accusing her of flip-flopping on busing. They won't take the time to read that she favors different solutions then than now.

It's Bernie-or-Bust all over again. I voted that the Democrat has about a 50% chance of winning. but I think I may have been too generous. Might be closer to 1-in-3 unless the base gets its **** together.

cpwill said:

...and I'm not convinced it will stay as solid as it is - that the market would dip due to a better than expected jobs report suggests it is well out of whack...

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We are way overdue a recession, and at this point, I do not think it will take much to push us there. And when it happens, it might be a nasty one.

Edit: And how you been cp? Have not seen one of your posts in quite some time.

cpwill said:

Until they learn anything about it, such as that it would have to be paid for somehow, or that the proponents of it are trying to end private health insurance.




Sure, again, until we have to pay for it, and support drops.



I wholeheartedly encourage you and as many Democrats as you can convince to continue to think this. Maybe you should argue for the nationalization of major industry, and child sex change operations without parental consent as well. Insist on it as a litmus test for candidates

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M4A, free college, and raising taxes is rather solidly middle ground in most countries.

The Democrats control the vast underclass voting block. They may not pay any Federal income tax but they do get to vote. They also control most of the MSM and have their share of big ticket donors. They have an edge with women voters. The Republicans have most of the working class and small business owners. They have their share of middle class voters. They control talk radio and mush of social media. It will be a dog fight no matter who is nominated by the Democrats. Remember, even a horrible campaigner like Hillary got the majority of the popular vote. People vote much more along ideological lines than they do for individuals. Trump is more in tune with the average working person than the Democrats, who are still obsessed with identity politics. The black vote is crucial for the Democrats, and they are losing that support. The whole reparations debate is a desperate ploy to hold that part of their base. So this election is up for grabs.

Jay59 said:

The title says it. Open 180 days

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First off, I have always said Trump chances in 2020 depends on whom the Democrats nominate. Until we know that, predicting Trump's chances this far out is way below an educated guess. That being said, we know the Democratic Party is still the larger of the two major parties. Trump must win the independent vote or lose the election. the Democrats have to only keep the independent vote fairly close.

Right now independents are siding with the Democrats. That could change depending on whom the democrats nominate. Only 32% of independents want Trump to run for reelection, 48% do not. Question 70.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ggh3e3308/econTabReport.pdf

That's not a good omen for Trump. But in the generic presidential vote, Trump fairs much better among independents. 29% of independents state they'll vote for the Democratic nominee, 26% for Trump, 19% say it all depends. Question 33. Those who say it depends I take it to mean, it depends on whom the Democrats nominate.

One last thing, Trump's favorable/unfavorable among independents. 40% view Trump favorably, 48% unfavorably. Question 52A.

I'd say the Democrats have the advantage today. With a candidate attractive to independents, a 55-45 result is foreseeable. With a candidate that has a hard time attracting independents, a repeat of 2016 is certainly possible. Today I'd go 55-45 Democratic subject to change once we know who is the Democratic nominee. That 55-45 in my book is very far from being a pick 'em. A pick 'em would be between 0-2 points with 3-5 points being a slight favorite or leaning Democratic. 6-10 would be likely Democratic and over 10 solid.