Unless something very drastic happens to alter the economic and military trajectories of the world's first tier powers, the USA has about another decade as an effective monopolar military and economic superpower. Then the world will slip back into a multipolar superpower situation with China and perhaps India emerging as effective economic rivals and regional superpowers. Russia will remain a very well armed but economically hamstrung power unless it can build alliances and markets in Eurasia and drive a wedge between Europe and North America.
The USA's monopolar, superpower position today is primarily based on economic and military power formerly supported by a strong network of alliances and dependencies. The US economy is changing for the worse and that degradation will eventually undermine your out of control military spending and thus your military hegemony. The economic challenges facing the USA are dwindling productive capacity, surplus labour pools which will grow worse as AI mediated automation and globalisation of production displaces more and more workers. Also you are losing your innovation and engineering primacy to places like India, Israel, Europe and China so out innovating your rivals will soon no longer be a realistic option. Abuse of the US dominated international financial system for political purposes such as sanctioning rivals and restraining trade is causing other nations to develop rival international financial systems which will be more resistant to US interference, so your financial might is also beginning to wane while your rivals adapt and wax in strength and independence.
This all means that the US will face real crises of economy, debt, employment and political isolation soon and these crises will rapidly erode liberties, democracy and social peace in America. This is the real threat to Americans. Your government and the private sector are conducting unprecedented surveillance on you. You police are being militarised and mercenary/Private Military Companies are conducting surveillance and suppression programmes on. American dissidents in America itself now. Your military is focusing on fighting in urban environments and mega-cities. Your Governments are becoming less tolerant of dissent and more prone to using draconian measures in the pursuit of maintaining control and secrecy. The greatest threat to America short of a thermonuclear attack or a crippling cyber attack is a domestic one, not a foreign one. Your have already crept into an elite-controlled panopticon ruled by militarists, some remaining industrialists, commercial interests, energy conglomerates, media and social-media conglomerates and extremely powerful private financial networks. 6.4 million Americans are already under some degree of penal supervision right now from incarceration to probation.
The next step will be an authoritarian police-state backed up by a significant fraction of a professional and permanent/standing military and a myriad of satellite private security, surveillance and mercenary companies which have been operating for the most part abroad but are now coming home to roost and are increasingly operating openly inside America.
Cheers?
Evilroddy.
India is unlikely to be a superpower. It is not spending enough on infrastructure and overall education to move up to a superpower level. It can and likely will be an upper level power, but will be beset by internal issues preventing it from getting to the top level. At least for the foreseeable future.
Potential Superpowers in 15 years
US, US will likely remain a superpower, and in 15 years still be the strongest of any, if only from legacy weapon systems that were built 20+ years ago (it will have 9+ nuclear powered supercarriers, and in 15 years, China might have 1 or two)
China, not a superpower at this point, but a very strong regional power. In 15 years, it should be at about 50% the strength of the US military in power projection. But it would be far more regionally focused, in that it is very unlikely to have military bases spread across the world, but along trade routes in Asia, and east Africa.
EU, with the UK leaving, the chances for a stronger union that has its own unified military is quite a bit higher. The economic, current military might a tighter EU would make them a superpower. Legacy systems would still mean a much weaker military than the US at the time when it comes to power projection. Not that it would need to project its power very far
Russia will not be a superpower, but due to its resources and nuclear weapons will remain a strong military power.
India will be around the same level as Russia at that point
So barring an economic crisis, in which the US has to retire much of the legacy weapon systems it currently has in 15 years it will still be the predominate military power in the world
