Yes, this is the 68th to-impeach-or-not-to-impeach thread, but I didn't feel those polls were created with the right premise in mind, which is that this is a no-win scenario.
Should Democrats move forward with impeachment?
a) Impeach. This will fail in the senate because being a Republican is now defined by the willingness to protect Donald Trump. After a sufficient number of votes in favor of removing Trump from office fails to materialize in the Senate, an exoneration narrative will be handed to McConnell and Trump which they will be sure to trumpet every day. Even though they went into impeachment hearings telling themselves that this was about laying out the facts for the American people, and even though they were intellectually aware that removal from office was never going to happen, Democrats will feel demoralized, which could be catastrophic if it happens before the 2020 election.
b) Don’t impeach. This will set the precedent that the punishment for a President being a criminal is determined at the ballot box. Also, Republicans will use this decision to create a narrative that not even Democrats believed impeachment was really called for. In spite of the fact that Senate Republicans are the reason why impeachment would never lead to the removal of Trump from office, Fox News will blast out the narrative, 24/7, that Democrats are cowards and that it was their choice not to impeach. Here on Debate Politics, we'll be repelling that argument every day. Also, the decision not to impeach could be demoralizing to Democratic voters.
Sorry, guys, you don't get a glass-half-full option, but if you have one of your own I'd be happy to hear it.
I think you are presenting this a "no good choice' dilemma, when its really an incredible political opportunity for the Democrats. The pony in the barn here is the Dems have a deck of strong cards to play and should work on playing them well.
Impeachment is a process, not an event. You can make this process work well for you if you cook it at the right temperature. The Mueller Report, in and of itself, while it contains enough to justify an impeachment, does not appear to be sufficiently compelling to the American people to produce the necessary political cover to go full bore on impeachment.
With over 16 ongoing state and federal investigations with Trump or TTO as a target or subject, there is likely far more ugly things revealed on Trump over the ensuing 18 months. What the Dems need to do is open the case.... A "
resolution to authorize the investigation of impeachable conduct". That will keep all matters in the forefront, allow congress to do additional investigations and allow many of the 16 cases to more fully develop. They should slow play such that it comes to a crescendo next summer.
If by next summer there is good ground (with political cover) for a full blown impeachment, the Dems would then two big options:
1) they could proceed and put all the Republican Senators on record just before the election (Republicans are defending 22 seats in 2020) OR,
2) they could make it clear that a 2nd term of the Trump presidency will see impeachment as the first order of business in 2021. That cloud over Trump would likely make him a toxic candidate to the swing voter that he needs.
Each of these options would be very disruptive to the Republican dreams of retaining the White House or the Senate
If, OTH, in the unlikely event there is no compelling case (measured by the voters appetite for it) for impeachment, Congress will have looked as if they did their oversight job. They could merely shut down the process and focus on the election.
I actually think the Dems are playing with very strong cards, they just need to play them in order and control the pace. I think Pelosi knows this and is already playing with burner controls.
PS: sorry for mixing the metaphors.
