The impeachment catch-22

Cardinal said:

Yes, this is the 68th to-impeach-or-not-to-impeach thread, but I didn't feel those polls were created with the right premise in mind, which is that this is a no-win scenario.

Should Democrats move forward with impeachment?

a) Impeach. This will fail in the senate because being a Republican is now defined by the willingness to protect Donald Trump. After a sufficient number of votes in favor of removing Trump from office fails to materialize in the Senate, an exoneration narrative will be handed to McConnell and Trump which they will be sure to trumpet every day. Even though they went into impeachment hearings telling themselves that this was about laying out the facts for the American people, and even though they were intellectually aware that removal from office was never going to happen, Democrats will feel demoralized, which could be catastrophic if it happens before the 2020 election.

b) Don’t impeach. This will set the precedent that the punishment for a President being a criminal is determined at the ballot box. Also, Republicans will use this decision to create a narrative that not even Democrats believed impeachment was really called for. In spite of the fact that Senate Republicans are the reason why impeachment would never lead to the removal of Trump from office, Fox News will blast out the narrative, 24/7, that Democrats are cowards and that it was their choice not to impeach. Here on Debate Politics, we'll be repelling that argument every day. Also, the decision not to impeach could be demoralizing to Democratic voters.

Sorry, guys, you don't get a glass-half-full option, but if you have one of your own I'd be happy to hear it.

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HumblePi said:

The sooner Democrats get off their see-saws on this issue the sooner we can move on impeachment. This isn't the time for fence sitting or procrastinating. Put the evidence up to a court of law. Clinton was impeached for far less. There's other things like conspiracy and abuse of power, and there's been plenty of evidence of that too.

The Mueller report is possibly one of the most incriminating insider portrayals of the White House has ever seen. It's not just another book written by Joe Schmoe citing anonymous and un-sourced accounts that nobody can really say if they're factual or not. Mueller's report has testimonies, contemporaneous records, there's phone calls, notes and emails. So when Trump goes on to Twitter and calls it "total bs" which is what he did, it really can't change this report or erase the contents of which will be in history books forever.

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Cardinal said:

Post #2 is a narrative that Democrats can expect after Senate Republicans vote against removing Trump from office.

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Cardinal said:

Yes, this is the 68th to-impeach-or-not-to-impeach thread, but I didn't feel those polls were created with the right premise in mind, which is that this is a no-win scenario.

Should Democrats move forward with impeachment?

a) Impeach. This will fail in the senate because being a Republican is now defined by the willingness to protect Donald Trump. After a sufficient number of votes in favor of removing Trump from office fails to materialize in the Senate, an exoneration narrative will be handed to McConnell and Trump which they will be sure to trumpet every day. Even though they went into impeachment hearings telling themselves that this was about laying out the facts for the American people, and even though they were intellectually aware that removal from office was never going to happen, Democrats will feel demoralized, which could be catastrophic if it happens before the 2020 election.

b) Don’t impeach. This will set the precedent that the punishment for a President being a criminal is determined at the ballot box. Also, Republicans will use this decision to create a narrative that not even Democrats believed impeachment was really called for. In spite of the fact that Senate Republicans are the reason why impeachment would never lead to the removal of Trump from office, Fox News will blast out the narrative, 24/7, that Democrats are cowards and that it was their choice not to impeach. Here on Debate Politics, we'll be repelling that argument every day. Also, the decision not to impeach could be demoralizing to Democratic voters.

Sorry, guys, you don't get a glass-half-full option, but if you have one of your own I'd be happy to hear it.

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washunut said:

It is almost May 2019. Do you really want an impeachment process going on taking all attention from the candidates trying to make their positions known? How would senators even campaign instead of sitting for the impeachment hearing.

If democrats put up a semi-decent candidate they will surely win the next election cycle. Why take the chance that impeachment gets in the way of that.

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Cardinal said:

Yes, Pelosi is almost certainly concerned that impeachment would suck all the oxygen out of the room. Also, remember that non-impeachment sets the precedent that the ballot box, not impeachment, is the process for removing a criminal President.

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Cardinal said:

Yes, but are you okay with impeachment failing in the Senate anyway? That's partly what I'm getting at: can you be okay with Trump surviving impeachment and claiming exoneration, since that will be the outcome?

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Cardinal said:

Yes, this is the 68th to-impeach-or-not-to-impeach thread, but I didn't feel those polls were created with the right premise in mind, which is that this is a no-win scenario.

Should Democrats move forward with impeachment?

a) Impeach. This will fail in the senate because being a Republican is now defined by the willingness to protect Donald Trump. After a sufficient number of votes in favor of removing Trump from office fails to materialize in the Senate, an exoneration narrative will be handed to McConnell and Trump which they will be sure to trumpet every day. Even though they went into impeachment hearings telling themselves that this was about laying out the facts for the American people, and even though they were intellectually aware that removal from office was never going to happen, Democrats will feel demoralized, which could be catastrophic if it happens before the 2020 election.

b) Don’t impeach. This will set the precedent that the punishment for a President being a criminal is determined at the ballot box. Also, Republicans will use this decision to create a narrative that not even Democrats believed impeachment was really called for. In spite of the fact that Senate Republicans are the reason why impeachment would never lead to the removal of Trump from office, Fox News will blast out the narrative, 24/7, that Democrats are cowards and that it was their choice not to impeach. Here on Debate Politics, we'll be repelling that argument every day. Also, the decision not to impeach could be demoralizing to Democratic voters.

Sorry, guys, you don't get a glass-half-full option, but if you have one of your own I'd be happy to hear it.

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Skeptic Bob said:

I vote “don’t impeach” but it isn’t an easy call for me. On one hand, I think what Trump did, trying to get others to obstruct justice for him, was worse than what Bill Clinton did. Granted, it would be obstruction of an investigation that ended up not implicating Trump anyway. Clinton didn’t rope anyone else in. He lied under oath himself. But it was a lie to cover up simple adultery, not a lie to cover up a crime.

So from Bill’s perspective all he did was get a BJ. Sure, that is reason to get in trouble with his wife but doesn’t have anything to do with the voters or his duties. So from my perspective it is a petty crime that I couldn’t justify impeachment over.

Then you have Trump. People were saying he colluded with Russia to swing the election. And they were going to have a whole investigation into it and the media would be focusing on that instead of his agenda. But from Trump’s perspective he knew it was BS. He knew for a fact he didn’t collude with Russia so from his perspective the investigation was a waste of time and attention. So since he knew for certain that he didn’t collude then from his perspective it seemed reasonable to shut it down. So from my perspective this means that he obstructed an investigation into a crime that didn’t actually happen, and that is a petty crime to me not worth impeachment.

Now, if I thought the vast majority of the country wanted it and that it would help the country heal its rift then I would probably be for it. But that is the opposite of what will happen if the Dems impeach. It will further divide the country, increase the animosity, and doesn’t have enough support to even succeed. All over a crime that I don’t find that significant. Yeah, it showed horrible character and judgement, but didn’t do any real damage.

The Dems need to focus all their energy on getting their message out for the 2020 election. Impeachment will be a distraction. The average American already views the Mueller report as exonerating Trump and hence a victory for Trump. If the Dems impeach Trump they will fail and it will once again, to the average American, look like Trump was exonerated.

Yeah, after writing this out I feel more certain than before. Don’t impeach.

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Cardinal said:

Yes, this is the 68th to-impeach-or-not-to-impeach thread, but I didn't feel those polls were created with the right premise in mind, which is that this is a no-win scenario.

Should Democrats move forward with impeachment?

a) Impeach. This will fail in the senate because being a Republican is now defined by the willingness to protect Donald Trump. After a sufficient number of votes in favor of removing Trump from office fails to materialize in the Senate, an exoneration narrative will be handed to McConnell and Trump which they will be sure to trumpet every day. Even though they went into impeachment hearings telling themselves that this was about laying out the facts for the American people, and even though they were intellectually aware that removal from office was never going to happen, Democrats will feel demoralized, which could be catastrophic if it happens before the 2020 election.

b) Don’t impeach. This will set the precedent that the punishment for a President being a criminal is determined at the ballot box. Also, Republicans will use this decision to create a narrative that not even Democrats believed impeachment was really called for. In spite of the fact that Senate Republicans are the reason why impeachment would never lead to the removal of Trump from office, Fox News will blast out the narrative, 24/7, that Democrats are cowards and that it was their choice not to impeach. Here on Debate Politics, we'll be repelling that argument every day. Also, the decision not to impeach could be demoralizing to Democratic voters.

Sorry, guys, you don't get a glass-half-full option, but if you have one of your own I'd be happy to hear it.

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Cardinal said:

Yikes. If you want to approach this from a tactical perspective, then I can get behind that. But Trump's crime wasn't that significant? Jeez, man.

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Cardinal said:

For any Democrats who are entertaining even 1% of a possibility that Senate Republicans can be swayed to vote to remove Trump from office, remember that the kind of person who wrote post #7 constitute their base.

And by the way, lest it be claimed otherwise, I'm not arguing against impeachment, because that would imply support for non-impeachment. I'm merely pointing out that this is a no-win situation and that whichever choice you go with, you have to go into it fully prepared and okay with the inevitable outcome.

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MovingPictures said:

Let's go back to 1998.

The Republicans knew in 1998 that public support for the impeachment of Bill Clinton was low, and most support came from their base. They also knew Congressional support was partisan and that a Senate trial would come nowhere near enough votes for removal from office.

But they did it anyways and we’re often told that it backfired, because support for Clinton skyrocketed. The reality though is that Republicans won the next election. Now, why is that?

Well, even though public perception of the impeachment was critical of Republicans, the Senate trial simply asked whether Clinton was guilty of certain offenses or not, so it looked bad when Democrats were voting “Not Guilty” in the during the trial, and they looked as political as the other side of the aisle.

Republicans were able to push the narrative that the Democrats were turning a blind eye to a clear crime, and regardless of initial public opinion, it cast a dark cloud over Al Gore and the Democratic party that Clinton became only the second president in history to be officially impeached in office, and that legacy persist and has become more significant with time, hurting Democratic politicians that got too close to the Clinton’s.

The Democrats face a cross roads now, where they have clear evidence the president broke the law with more events surrounding that narrative than for Clinton in 1998., But there’s an election in 18 months away, and no national or Congressional consensus for impeachment.

The evidence is clear: Trump did the exact same thing Felicity Huffman did in NY, he also committed obstruction of justice, abused is power, intimidated witnesses, and mislead the American people about important conflicts of interest during the election.

The Democrats must do something in response to these revelations besides “wait till the next election!” and simply promising oversight. If they won’t hold the president accountable in any way, they risk setting a standard where every Republican president will feel free to engage in official misconduct, corruption, and even break the law, knowing Democrats will be too fearful of appearing partisan to respond with consequences.

IMHO, the solution is to offer the Republicans a middle ground of severe censure. Otherwise, if they refuse to rebuke the president's actions, they should hold a simple vote on impeachment, and make the Republican Senate go on record saying “Not Guilty” to obvious criminal conduct.

The premise of one party believing it's above political reproach is unsustainable.

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Skeptic Bob said:

It is all relative, of course. But I don’t find it significant enough for impeachment. If he had colluded that would be more than significant enough. Or if he had obstructed justice to cover up an actual crime that would certainly merit it even aside from the crime he was covering up. But it doesn’t appear he tried to shut down the investigation to cover up a crime. It looks like he tried to shut it down because it was offensive to his ego and a distraction from his perceived greatness. THAT isn’t significant enough for me.

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Cardinal said:

Yes, this is the 68th to-impeach-or-not-to-impeach thread, but I didn't feel those polls were created with the right premise in mind, which is that this is a no-win scenario.

Should Democrats move forward with impeachment?

a) Impeach. This will fail in the senate because being a Republican is now defined by the willingness to protect Donald Trump. After a sufficient number of votes in favor of removing Trump from office fails to materialize in the Senate, an exoneration narrative will be handed to McConnell and Trump which they will be sure to trumpet every day. Even though they went into impeachment hearings telling themselves that this was about laying out the facts for the American people, and even though they were intellectually aware that removal from office was never going to happen, Democrats will feel demoralized, which could be catastrophic if it happens before the 2020 election.

b) Don’t impeach. This will set the precedent that the punishment for a President being a criminal is determined at the ballot box. Also, Republicans will use this decision to create a narrative that not even Democrats believed impeachment was really called for. In spite of the fact that Senate Republicans are the reason why impeachment would never lead to the removal of Trump from office, Fox News will blast out the narrative, 24/7, that Democrats are cowards and that it was their choice not to impeach. Here on Debate Politics, we'll be repelling that argument every day. Also, the decision not to impeach could be demoralizing to Democratic voters.

Sorry, guys, you don't get a glass-half-full option, but if you have one of your own I'd be happy to hear it.

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Skeptic Bob said:

It is all relative, of course. But I don’t find it significant enough for impeachment. If he had colluded that would be more than significant enough. Or if he had obstructed justice to cover up an actual crime that would certainly merit it even aside from the crime he was covering up. But it doesn’t appear he tried to shut down the investigation to cover up a crime. It looks like he tried to shut it down because it was offensive to his ego and a distraction from his perceived greatness. THAT isn’t significant enough for me.

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joko104 said:

Democrats who talk impeachment and those who fall for their crap are just fools or have no integrity whatsoever.

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President Trump could have shut down the investigation anytime he wanted to. So any claim that he "tried" to is just idiotic talk relying on extra stupid people to buy into it.

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