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Do you expect Kavanaugh to become a Supreme Court Justice?

Do you expect Kavanaugh to become a Supreme Court Justice?

  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
Trippy Trekker

Trippy Trekker

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Does this story by Dr. Ford of alleged teenage sexual assault derail Kavanaugh's confirmation?

On September 4th, Renae created a somewhat similar poll with four choices. At that time I thought Kavanaugh had a lock on enough Senate votes to win confirmation. Last I checked, only Cardinal voted the Senate would not confirm Kavanaugh.

This late breaking development regarding alleged teenage sexual assault has changed my mind. I now agree with Cardinal.

I have provided a simple poll with only two choices:

Vote 'YES' if you expect Kavanaugh to win confirmation.

Vote 'NO' if you do not expect Kavanaugh to win confirmation.
 
I'm still leaning yes, because I think Republicans will force this through, and will depend on red state Democrats to help them pull it across the finish line.

I'm not as certain anymore. If three Republicans say no, then that might give the red state Democrats enough cover to say there is too much doubt about him. But that's a long shot.

I figure the fence-sitting Republicans will say, "We gave him a hearing," and then mumble something about his strong judicial bona fides. And then vote yes.
 
I'm on the side of no. Last week I said it was all but a done deal. However this is a ****storm the President hasn't even weighed in on yet. Maybe they can't find anyway to defend him.
 
Given how Franken practically leapt out of his congressional seat during that slew of various people coming under fire due to sexual allegations, and given the Democrat's track-record when it comes to pushing and shoving, I think I'd be voting 'no' if it were their guy that was getting stuck with this. I don't think these allegations are going to phase the Republicans, though.
 
DH Kirkwood said:
Given how Franken practically leapt out of his congressional seat during that slew of various people coming under fire due to sexual allegations, and given the Democrat's track-record when it comes to pushing and shoving, I think I'd be voting 'no' if it were their guy that was getting stuck with this. I don't think these allegations are going to phase the Republicans, though.
Click to expand...

Considering the timing, Republicans have a right to be skeptical. As you said, these are allegations and in America you are supposed to be considered innocent until proven guilty. It seems rather crazy to derail a person's career on 3 decade old allegations that can't be proven. With Roy Moore there was considerably more information that lended credibility to the allegations, this case however we have nothing but the word of one person versus two, with a vague date and location.
 
This is such an odd scenario, it's very hard to call, but I'm going to just slightly lean 'confirmation'.

The whole thing is very specious, though:

1] Waiting until after the hearings, until the 11th hour
2] 3+ decades have passed
3] They were teens, 15 & 17 (and apparently drinking)

But then, she appears to be a credible person:

1] She's a PhD'd professional (educator)
2] She's passed a lie detector test
3] She has medical records discussing the assault with a licensed therapist

I believe it's going to come down to Ford's performance in front of the committee, in how she resonates with the public and thereby the voters.

The GOP are in a difficult position here. Unlike almost three decades ago during the Anita Hill - Clarence Thomas televised hearing, we are currently in the midst of the MeToo! phenomenon. They (GOP) are going to have to thread extremely carefully.
 
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Yes. I expect that if this hearing goes forward, there will be an avalanche of support for Kavanaugh, with first-hand accounts of his stellar track record with women.
 
Trippy Trekker said:
Does this story by Dr. Ford of alleged teenage sexual assault derail Kavanaugh's confirmation?

.
Click to expand...

Oh God no.

If Thomas was confirmed and Trump grabs ***** and no one cares, who is gonna care about a 15 year old girl who was not even successfully raped?

This is politics boys, no moral imperatives at play.
 
Chomsky said:
This is such an odd scenario, it's very hard to call, but I'm going to lean 'confirmation'.

The whole thing is very specious, though:

1] Waiting until after the hearings, until the 11th hour
2] 3+ decades have passed
3] They were teens, 15 & 17 (and apparently drinking)

But then, she appears to be a credible person:

1] She's a PhD'd professional (educator)
2] She's passed a lie detector test
3] She has medical records discussing the assault with a licensed therapist

I believe it's going to come down to Ford's performance in front of the committee, in how she resonates with the public and thereby the voters.

The GOP are in a difficult position here. Unlike almost three decades ago during the Anita Hill - Clarence Thomas televised hearing, we are currently in the midst of the MeToo! phenomenon. They (GOP) are going to have to thread extremely carefully.
Click to expand...

I see it pretty much the same way.
 
DH Kirkwood said:
Given how Franken practically leapt out of his congressional seat during that slew of various people coming under fire due to sexual allegations, and given the Democrat's track-record when it comes to pushing and shoving, I think I'd be voting 'no' if it were their guy that was getting stuck with this. I don't think these allegations are going to phase the Republicans, though.
Click to expand...

Yeah, ***** grabbing is chic in some political circles.
 
Nap said:
I see it pretty much the same way.
Click to expand...

I think the good Doctor needs her head examined.

She is putting herself and family through hell for naught.

maybe she is not old enough to see what they did to HILL.
 
DH Kirkwood said:
Given how Franken practically leapt out of his congressional seat during that slew of various people coming under fire due to sexual allegations, and given the Democrat's track-record when it comes to pushing and shoving, I think I'd be voting 'no' if it were their guy that was getting stuck with this. I don't think these allegations are going to phase the Republicans, though.
Click to expand...

Democrats are thanking Senator Gillibrand now.
 
noonereal said:
I think the good Doctor needs her head examined.

She is putting herself and family through hell for naught.

maybe she is not old enough to see what they did to HILL.
Click to expand...

Or Juanita Broaddrick
 
Trippy Trekker said:
Does this story by Dr. Ford of alleged teenage sexual assault derail Kavanaugh's confirmation?

On September 4th, Renae created a somewhat similar poll with four choices. At that time I thought Kavanaugh had a lock on enough Senate votes to win confirmation. Last I checked, only Cardinal voted the Senate would not confirm Kavanaugh.

This late breaking development regarding alleged teenage sexual assault has changed my mind. I now agree with Cardinal.

I have provided a simple poll with only two choices:

Vote 'YES' if you expect Kavanaugh to win confirmation.

Vote 'NO' if you do not expect Kavanaugh to win confirmation.
Click to expand...

Nope.

Flake has already pretty much given his thumbs down. It will be his parting gift to Trump. Frankly, the guy is more interested in flipping Trump the bird than he is in being a staunch supporter of the Constitution so this will fit his agenda just fine.

Flake's "deny" will give Murkowski and Collins cover for their "no" votes and, since the nomination won't go through anyway, Corker will probably also cave. My "sleeper" guess is that Rubio will try to appeal to "left leaning independents" and throw his vote on the "no" side.
 
hard to tell. i suppose that we'll see.
 
It all comes down to how credible Dr Ford is. Kavanaugh has been very sly and wishy washy on a lot of points, so if Ford is direct and straightforward it will look bad for him.

The funny thing is that if it's true and if Kavanaugh had come come clean and said something like, "I was 17 and stupid and I apoligize to Dr Ford and I'm ashamed of what I did then and I'm a different man now". I wouldn't have a problem with him. For him to say,"I didn't do it, I wasn't even there". That ticks me off.
 
I'm more confident that this nominee will not be confirmed or the nomination will be withdrawn.
 
noonereal said:
I think the good Doctor needs her head examined.

She is putting herself and family through hell for naught.

maybe she is not old enough to see what they did to HILL.
Click to expand...

So she should just shut up because standing up for herself and against attempted rape is futile.
 
Parrish said:
I'm more confident that this nominee will not be confirmed or the nomination will be withdrawn.
Click to expand...

Imagine if they pulled his nomination, and Republicans rushed through Amy Barrett. Lol, heads would literally explode.
 
bearpoker said:
It all comes down to how credible Dr Ford is. Kavanaugh has been very sly and wishy washy on a lot of points, so if Ford is direct and straightforward it will look bad for him.

The funny thing is that if it's true and if Kavanaugh had come come clean and said something like, "I was 17 and stupid and I apoligize to Dr Ford and I'm ashamed of what I did then and I'm a different man now". I wouldn't have a problem with him. For him to say,"I didn't do it, I wasn't even there". That ticks me off.
Click to expand...

What if he is telling the truth?
 
Amelia said:
I'm still leaning yes, because I think Republicans will force this through, and will depend on red state Democrats to help them pull it across the finish line.

I'm not as certain anymore. If three Republicans say no, then that might give the red state Democrats enough cover to say there is too much doubt about him. But that's a long shot.

I figure the fence-sitting Republicans will say, "We gave him a hearing," and then mumble something about his strong judicial bona fides. And then vote yes.
Click to expand...



And so it begins ....

Sen. Orrin Hatch said Monday that the woman alleging Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh assaulted her when they were in high school must be “mistaken” and that even if the accusation is true, Kavanaugh is a “good man” and senators should judge who he is now.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/09/17/sen-hatch-says-christine/
 
Lutherf said:
Nope.

Flake has already pretty much given his thumbs down. It will be his parting gift to Trump. Frankly, the guy is more interested in flipping Trump the bird than he is in being a staunch supporter of the Constitution so this will fit his agenda just fine.
.
Click to expand...

The things people say.
God Bless.
 
Lutherf said:
Nope.

Flake has already pretty much given his thumbs down. It will be his parting gift to Trump. Frankly, the guy is more interested in flipping Trump the bird than he is in being a staunch supporter of the Constitution so this will fit his agenda just fine.

Flake's "deny" will give Murkowski and Collins cover for their "no" votes and, since the nomination won't go through anyway, Corker will probably also cave. My "sleeper" guess is that Rubio will try to appeal to "left leaning independents" and throw his vote on the "no" side.
Click to expand...

I think you are wrong. The hearing is set for next Monday. It is an instant replay of Anita Hill. Ford according to her own account never told anyone about what she alleged happen until her couples therapy session in 2012 and then never mentioned Kavanaugh's name. It was her husband who recently said it was Kavanaugh.


Tonight we had a couple of women on The Story on Fox that once dated Kavanaugh during this time. They vouched for his character and one was aware of Christine Ford often showing up at their parties. She went to an all girls school in Maryland but somehow who was part of the party scene regularly. Yet she can't remember the night in question how she ended up at said party where she claims Kavanaugh tried to rape her. She can't remember who was at the party. She can't remember what time of day this occurred. She can't remember many important details. But the one who she claims allowed her to escape Kavanaugh was a guy by the name of Judge who says it never happened.

I don't think even Flake is willing to deny this man his right to sit on the SC. It is going to be another circus next Monday but the one with the most people vouching for their credibility and fighting for this man's integrity will be blocks long of a line.
 
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