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Do you expect Kavanaugh to become a Supreme Court Justice?

Do you expect Kavanaugh to become a Supreme Court Justice?

  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
vesper said:
I don't think even Flake is willing to deny this man his right to sit on the SC. It is going to be another circus next Monday but the one with the most people vouching for their credibility and fighting for this man's integrity will be blocks long of a line.
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his right?

omfg

you had a good post then went wild...
trumpets, you can't live with them, you can't get rid of them

good grief
 
noonereal said:
Yes. Or say something when it happens.
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Why? What would have happened? This is how it would have gone down:

You weren't raped, so what are you complaining about?
You shouldn't have been there in a bathing suit.
Why were you at a party where alcohol was being served?
Were you drunk?
Did you come on to him?

See, it's always the girls fault.
 
bearpoker said:
Why? What would have happened? This is how it would have gone down:

You weren't raped, so what are you complaining about?
You shouldn't have been there in a bathing suit.
Why were you at a party where alcohol was being served?
Were you drunk?
Did you come on to him?

See, it's always the girls fault.
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Tell that to the Duke Lacrosse team.
 
Helix said:
hard to tell. i suppose that we'll see.
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Yep. I don't think this will matter to either the Judicial Committee GOP or the Senate GOP. They support a president who has had more than a dozen women allege he groped, harassed and assaulted him; I can't believe they'll care about the assault of a 15 yr old girl back in high school.

I'm hoping a few GOP Senators will flip, because frankly I think Kavanaugh did indeed lie under oath in 2006 about having no knowledge of the DNC's stolen Minato papers; I think he evaded and misled during the confirmation process to the point of lying as well. I want to see this woman's testimony and come to my own conclusions about her story; apparently there are pieces of that night she can't recall, so who knows? Kavanaugh might be lying to save the biggest plum job of his lifetime; but why in hell would Dr. Ford publicly lie about something that will inarguably shatter her family and haunt the rest of her life?
 
bearpoker said:
Why? What would have happened? This is how it would have gone down:

You weren't raped, so what are you complaining about?
You shouldn't have been there in a bathing suit.
Why were you at a party where alcohol was being served?
Were you drunk?
Did you come on to him?

See, it's always the girls fault.
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Finally, someone who gets why a vulnerable teenager wouldn't speak up back in the bad old days! :thumbs:
 
DiAnna said:
Yep. I don't think this will matter to either the Judicial Committee GOP or the Senate GOP. They support a president who has had more than a dozen women allege he groped, harassed and assaulted him; I can't believe they'll care about the assault of a 15 yr old girl back in high school.

I'm hoping a few GOP Senators will flip, because frankly I think Kavanaugh did indeed lie under oath in 2006 about having no knowledge of the DNC's stolen Minato papers; I think he evaded and misled during the confirmation process to the point of lying as well. I want to see this woman's testimony and come to my own conclusions about her story; apparently there are pieces of that night she can't recall, so who knows? Kavanaugh might be lying to save the biggest plum job of his lifetime; but why in hell would Dr. Ford publicly lie about something that will inarguably shatter her family and haunt the rest of her life?
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Her memory seems pretty problematic - she can't remember when it happened, or where it happened, or what the circumstances were, and she "remembers" different people being involved now than she did a few years back, per the notes from the therapy session that she wants to use as evidence in her favor, but not when they contradict her current account.....

I find it very plausible (which is not the same as I am saying it is true) that she honestly believes her current story. I am less certain that means her story is accurate. I do note that the "can't-remember-when-or-where-or-who-all-was-there-or-what-the-exact-circumstances-were" bit denies him the ability to defend himself, because it sets up a non-falsifiable.

I'd like to see them both testify about this under oath, though I think we'll likely end up exactly where we are now, only with someone accidentally telling a non-truth under oath (which is not the same as lying), and with both sides more dug in.

What I'm really waiting for is to see if more women come out of the woodwork. With Judge Moore, with Harvey Weinstein, with the predators that have been taken down, there has never been just one victim. Predators don't stop abusing when they get away with it, they keep on going. If more women come forward with similar stories in the next couple of days (or, if they don't), that will be significant.
 
Chomsky said:
This is such an odd scenario, it's very hard to call, but I'm going to just slightly lean 'confirmation'.

The whole thing is very specious, though:

1] Waiting until after the hearings, until the 11th hour
2] 3+ decades have passed
3] They were teens, 15 & 17 (and apparently drinking)

But then, she appears to be a credible person:

1] She's a PhD'd professional (educator)
2] She's passed a lie detector test
3] She has medical records discussing the assault with a licensed therapist

I believe it's going to come down to Ford's performance in front of the committee, in how she resonates with the public and thereby the voters.

The GOP are in a difficult position here. Unlike almost three decades ago during the Anita Hill - Clarence Thomas televised hearing, we are currently in the midst of the MeToo! phenomenon. They (GOP) are going to have to thread extremely carefully.
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the notes of her therapist contains NO names, was taken in a counseling session apparently involving marital difficulties and indicted four people in the room.

based on years of being a prosecutor I am sure Something happened with this then 15 year old girl. I also believe she was drinking and undeniably under age. She might have been making out with someone and may have consumed pot along with booze. Those actions would be very good reasons why she never told her parents or the police-she had most likely done stuff that would get her in trouble and could jeopardize her enrollment at a wealthy private school she attended if it came to the school's attention she was drinking etc.

but on the other hand, if she was not so drunk as to remember this, I find it completely lacking in credibility that she didn't tell any of her friends

my position is this-given his record after this event, even if she is mostly right about what happened, I don't believe it rises to the level of wiping out his excellent record.
 
cpwill said:
Her memory seems pretty problematic - she can't remember when it happened, or where it happened, or what the circumstances were, and she "remembers" different people being involved now than she did a few years back, per the notes from the therapy session that she wants to use as evidence in her favor, but not when they contradict her current account.....

I find it very plausible (which is not the same as I am saying it is true) that she honestly believes her current story. I am less certain that means her story is accurate. I do note that the "can't-remember-when-or-where-or-who-all-was-there-or-what-the-exact-circumstances-were" bit denies him the ability to defend himself, because it sets up a non-falsifiable.
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She said the therapist got confused when taking the notes -- mixing up who was involved in the assault with how many were in the house.

If you've ever had therapy, ask for a copy of your therapist's notes. I bet you'll find discrepancies. I did when I requested my records. Some serious ones.
 
bearpoker said:
Why? What would have happened? This is how it would have gone down:

You weren't raped, so what are you complaining about?
You shouldn't have been there in a bathing suit.
Why were you at a party where alcohol was being served?
Were you drunk?
Did you come on to him?

See, it's always the girls fault.
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What if they appeal to Gloria Steineim's "One Free Grope" rule?
 
TurtleDude said:
the notes of her therapist contains NO names, was taken in a counseling session apparently involving marital difficulties and indicted four people in the room.

based on years of being a prosecutor I am sure Something happened with this then 15 year old girl. I also believe she was drinking and undeniably under age. She might have been making out with someone and may have consumed pot along with booze. Those actions would be very good reasons why she never told her parents or the police-she had most likely done stuff that would get her in trouble and could jeopardize her enrollment at a wealthy private school she attended if it came to the school's attention she was drinking etc.

but on the other hand, if she was not so drunk as to remember this, I find it completely lacking in credibility that she didn't tell any of her friends

my position is this-given his record after this event, even if she is mostly right about what happened, I don't believe it rises to the level of wiping out his excellent record.
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If he committed perjury -- or even if he merely lacked candor to a degree which would have gotten him fired from the FBI for the kind of testimony he gave to Congress -- then his record isn't so excellent.
 
Amelia said:
She said the therapist got confused when taking the notes -- mixing up who was involved in the assault with how many were in the house.
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I believe she thinks that now. I also know that, when comparing between contemporaneous notes or later (especially much later, especially years later) memory, the contemporaneous notes have far greater credibility, unless perhaps their author can be demonstrated to be exceptionally mentally incompetent and/or malicious. Memory is malleable in a way that words, hammered down on paper, at the time, are not.
 
Amelia said:
She said the therapist got confused when taking the notes -- mixing up who was involved in the assault with how many were in the house.

If you've ever had therapy, ask for a copy of your therapist's notes. I bet you'll find discrepancies. I did when I requested my records. Some serious ones.
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yeah say her therapist was wrong when it helps her. The BS gets deeper. Was she drinking at the time? was she making out with someone and it went past where she wanted it to? some people act like their high school years were akin to a medieval convent.
 
Amelia said:
If he committed perjury -- or even if he merely lacked candor to a degree which would have gotten him fired from the FBI for the kind of testimony he gave to Congress -- then his record isn't so excellent.
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he wasn't asked about this under oath-and its not material

so he denies it
the other man who was there denies it
she claims it happens

the benefit of the doubt accrues to him
 
cpwill said:
I believe she thinks that now. I also know that, when comparing between contemporaneous notes or later (especially much later, especially years later) memory, the contemporaneous notes almost always have far greater credibility. Memory is malleable in a way that words, hammered down on paper, at the time, are not.
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I appreciate that.

But as someone who was in therapy and who was earnestly interested in communicating about highly significant life events, I trust the patient in this setting. The significance of the events -- including both the past events and the significance of getting to talk about them -- makes the communication memorable to the patient. The therapist is trying to digest the information that they don't have a connection with and record it while continuing to listen as the patient moves on to the next parts of the story. Quite understandable for the therapist to get some details wrong in that setting.
 
noonereal said:
his right?

omfg

you had a good post then went wild...
trumpets, you can't live with them, you can't get rid of them

good grief
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You seem to be ignorant to the point that Kavanaugh has been eyed for years to be a nominee for the Supreme Court and seems to make the left scared. Several of his readings of the law have been recognized in the SC to be a guide to follow. He is a religious man in his personal life and he lives those principles in his community when no one was looking. He feeds the homeless, he volunteers to aid the downtrodden when no one was looking. So STFU. He is the real deal and that is what scares the left the most.
 
TurtleDude said:
the notes of her therapist contains NO names, was taken in a counseling session apparently involving marital difficulties and indicted four people in the room.

based on years of being a prosecutor I am sure Something happened with this then 15 year old girl. I also believe she was drinking and undeniably under age. She might have been making out with someone and may have consumed pot along with booze. Those actions would be very good reasons why she never told her parents or the police-she had most likely done stuff that would get her in trouble and could jeopardize her enrollment at a wealthy private school she attended if it came to the school's attention she was drinking etc.

but on the other hand, if she was not so drunk as to remember this, I find it completely lacking in credibility that she didn't tell any of her friends

my position is this-given his record after this event, even if she is mostly right about what happened, I don't believe it rises to the level of wiping out his excellent record.
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I'm pretty much with you, here.

It was a drunken (or more) teenage party, and young teens at that. I'd say there's no way she would carry the day in a court of law, and I think it's probably unlikely she prevails in the court of public opinion.

Something may indeed have happened there, but I don't see a sufficient evidential case (at this moment) to refute Kavanaugh. But the public is fickle, and the public will indeed be the decider. Our current MeToo! environment - prior to an important election - makes this even more dicey.
 
Amelia said:
If he committed perjury -- or even if he merely lacked candor to a degree which would have gotten him fired from the FBI for the kind of testimony he gave to Congress -- then his record isn't so excellent.
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TurtleDude said:
he wasn't asked about this under oath-and its not material

so he denies it
the other man who was there denies it
she claims it happens

the benefit of the doubt accrues to him
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I'm talking about his testimony from 2006. He was under oath then. And it appears that he lacked candor to a degree at least approaching perjury.
 
Nap said:
Considering the timing, Republicans have a right to be skeptical. As you said, these are allegations and in America you are supposed to be considered innocent until proven guilty. It seems rather crazy to derail a person's career on 3 decade old allegations that can't be proven. With Roy Moore there was considerably more information that lended credibility to the allegations, this case however we have nothing but the word of one person versus two, with a vague date and location.
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And this is the bottom line. It's takes a very gullible partisan to give this obvious kabuki in the 11th and a half hour, a shred of credibility. But there is no shortage of those.
 
Amelia said:
If he committed perjury -- or even if he merely lacked candor to a degree which would have gotten him fired from the FBI for the kind of testimony he gave to Congress -- then his record isn't so excellent.
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tell us what perjury means to you
 
Amelia said:
I'm talking about his testimony from 2006. He was under oath then. And it appears that he lacked candor to a degree at least approaching perjury.
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he was asked about this high school incident then?

does anyone really believe that this issue is pertinent to people who have already gone on record saying they won't support him?
 
TurtleDude said:
he was asked about this high school incident then?

does anyone really believe that this issue is pertinent to people who have already gone on record saying they won't support him?
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*sigh*

He was asked about some emails that he shouldn't have had, which he appears to have made inappropriate use of, and which he appears to have been dishonest about under oath in 2006.

The evidence of his past dishonesty came to light in the present hearings.
 
Chomsky said:
I'm pretty much with you, here.

It was a drunken (or more) teenage party, and young teens at that. I'd say there's no way she would carry the day in a court of law, and I think it's probably unlikely she prevails in the court of public opinion.

Something may indeed have happened there, but I don't see a sufficient evidential case (at this moment) to refute Kavanaugh. But the public is fickle, and the public will indeed be the decider. Our current MeToo! environment - prior to an important election - makes this even more dicey.
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I think this sort of tactics is disgusting but I sure won't complain when the GOP does it to the dems next time round because its now a knife fight and as we all know what Harvey said!

 
Amelia said:
*sigh*

He was asked about some emails that he shouldn't have had, which he appears to have made inappropriate use of, and which he appears to have been dishonest about under oath in 2006.

The evidence of his past dishonesty came to light in the present hearings.
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that's be debunked by several commentators

why don't you argue why what he did was improper
 
TurtleDude said:
that's be debunked by several commentators

why don't you argue why what he did was improper
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Because you've seen everything I've seen and you've clearly made up your mind about it. What would be the point?

We will see if these mounting layers of questionable behavior will start to resonate with more people.


It probably won't. The GOP are determined to have Kavanaugh. We have Orrin Hatch saying it doesn't matter if Kavanaugh did attempt to rape this lady. And Hatch is supposedly one of the higher minded people in the Senate. With senators like that, Kavanaugh will probably be confirmed soon.
 
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