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2018 Midterm Elections

Will Democrats Do As Well In The Midterms As Republicans Did In 2010?

  • Total voters
    33
Perotista said:
Depends on the poll. Gravis taken in August has Blackburn up 48-44. Emerson and PPP taken at the end of July had Bredesen up by 43-37 and 44-41. Still a pure tossup in my opinion. Florida is another pure toss up.
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Rep Blackburn is the type of person that would set her hair on firer and put it out with a hammer.
 
Atheist 2020 said:
Rep Blackburn is the type of person that would set her hair on firer and put it out with a hammer.
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Never heard of Blackburn but i love the descriptive prose.

Am soooo stealing that.....
 
Moderate Right said:
My personal opinion is that Democrats will just barely turn control of the House by a few seats. I don't believe they will gain 35-40 seats, maybe 25-30. As far as the Senate goes, I expect Republicans to pick up one or two seats, far less than the 60 needed for full control. I would personally love it if Trump would work with the moderates of both parties and shove the fringes off the side of the Earth. But, those moderate Democrats have to give up on the idea of resistance for the good of the country.
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It takes two to tango. Not only would Trump have to be willing to work with the other party, so too would both senate and house leaders. The senate, I see at this time Nevada and Arizona being Democratic pickups with the possible addition of Tennessee. For the GOP, they could pickup Indiana and North Dakota with the possibility of picking up Missouri and Florida. I don't see any other changes or senate seats switch parties outside of those seven. As of today anyway.
 
Perotista said:
I'm not from Tennessee, I wouldn't know.
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A few years ago Georgia was asking Tennessee to get water from the Tennessee river to help out Atlanta Georgia. She said it was Gods will that Georgia was not getting water.
 
Atheist 2020 said:
A few years ago Georgia was asking Tennessee to get water from the Tennessee river to help out Atlanta Georgia. She said it was Gods will that Georgia was not getting water.
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I remember Tennessee and Alabama suing Georgia and Atlanta over Atlanta taking too much water out of the Chattahoochee River. If I remember right, Atlanta had to cut back on the amount of water it was taking out.
 
This is the first time I will ever be voting during the Midterms (granted, most of the time I have been out of my home state when they came up). I am voting mostly for Dems (only seat up for me though is a George Holding (blah) on the fed level, but state is still going to be mostly Dems as well).
 
Moderate Right said:
As a history lesson the following link shows the results of the 2010 midterm elections where Republicans took 63 seats away from the Democrats in the House. Will Democrats do this good in 2018?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2010
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I vote other, for one the election is a few months away, for two voter turnout is far less predictable in midterms than a general election, and three polling is complete junk during midterms, seems most midterms since bush have always oversampled one demographic and undersampled another, which side is oversampled is anyones guess, as midterms often rely on smaller local pollsters and often will not be known until the election is over.

I remember reading about the predicted democrat blue waves in 2010 and 2012, in both those races and in 2012 on the non presidential level democrats were oversampled which led to dissapointment, and let's face it republicans were oversampled in the presidential election in 2012, making it look like romney and obama were neck and neck, and some final polls showing romney as a clear winner, however reality kicked in and romney lost.
 
I don't know if Democrats will do quite as well as Republicans did in 2010, but I expect the Democrats to make significant gains. Historically it's what tends to happen in most midterm elections, and I don't see anything that makes me expect this midterm will be an outlier in that sense.
 
Not a chance...they have zero to offer the American citizen.
 
If recent history tells us anything,expect the unexpected.
 
Moderate Right said:
The anti-Obama, anti-Democrat sentiment was actually far more huge in 2010 than the anti-Trump, anti-Republican sentiment in 2018. There is no blue wave, even if Democrats take over the House. There was a huge red wave in the 2010 midterms.
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And you base this on what data?
 
Moderate Right said:
As a history lesson the following link shows the results of the 2010 midterm elections where Republicans took 63 seats away from the Democrats in the House. Will Democrats do this good in 2018?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2010
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I think it's funny that you have to fantasize about the (much better) state your party was 8 years ago to find something to compare it to. When Republicans don't know what GOTV means and Democrats are electing more women than ever before some in Republican leaning states/offices. They have a good shot.
 
trouble13 said:
I don't think you can look at past elections to predict this one. There's too many non typical circumstances.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
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But even the experts say that Democrats will pick up 35-40 House seats. That's not 63. Not one polling place anywhere is predicting 63 or more.
 
upsideguy said:
Whether its 70,60,50,40 or 30, the result is the same: leadership change in the House.

The one thing the Dems hope to achieve for 2019 is Jerry Nadler as head of House Judiciary and Adam Schiff as head of House Intelligence. That takes only 23 seats, of which 5 should come from the re-districted Pennsylvania and a bunch more from the 38 districts were Republican reps saw the handwriting on the wall and chose not to run.

The 2019-20 Democratic lead HoR will not accomplish much with Trump in office, unless the Senate flips and so does Trump. Their mission will be to further the corruption investigations into the Trump presidency and hold the fort until 2020, which will be an exceptionally favorable environment for Dems.
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But the poll question is, will Democrats do as well in the 2018 midterms as Republicans did in the 2010 midterms.
 
Cardinal said:
Super tough to say. The Democrats have enthusiasm on their side, but unlike past midterm elections most of the seats they have to win are in more Republican-leaning districts.

There was a very good 538 article explaining this in detail, and now I can't find the damn thing.

Edit: Aha! No wonder I couldn't find it; it was actually the NYTimes. Good read, and a very good insight into why typical Democratic complacency will kill us:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/19/upshot/democrats-midterm-elections.html

Although I have nothing against making predictions, I have zero confidence in how this is going to go.
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That was a good and unbiased article.
 
MrWonka said:
I can't find the numbers right now, but in something like 4 our of the last 5 elections the majority of Americans have voted for Democrats in the House, and I think 3 out of 5 the majority voted for Democrats in the Senate. If that doesn't prove to you that elections in this country are skewed to favor Republicans nothing will. Combine that with the reality that Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 out of the last 7 presidential elections and there's no debate about it. America is a liberal country, and it's only a matter of time before it catches up with you.

Your base is old and dying, ours is young and growing. If it wasn't for bull**** election laws you would already be toast. If Democrats win the house in 2018 it's a virtual certainty they'll hold it in 2020. Democrats will almost certainly win the majority of state legislatures and governorships in 2020 as well. Once the census allows for the redistricting I'd say there's a very good chance that starting in 2019 the Republican party will never control the House of Representatives again in your lifetime.
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That's the same crap you guys spewed in 2016. The Republican party was dead forever, even after several years of Republicans flipping over 1000 seats.
 
Moderate Right said:
That's the same crap you guys spewed in 2016. The Republican party was dead forever, even after several years of Republicans flipping over 1000 seats.
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You got one slip up. Time will always be on our side.
 
NeverTrumpGOP said:
I think it's funny that you have to fantasize about the (much better) state your party was 8 years ago to find something to compare it to. When Republicans don't know what GOTV means and Democrats are electing more women than ever before some in Republican leaning states/offices. They have a good shot.
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Ummm. Since 8 years ago, Republicans have flipped over 1000 seats and now control the presidency, the House, and the Senate, not to mention 2/3's of the states governorships and state legislatures. And you say they were doing better 8 years ago? It's really truly amazing how out of touch with reality you are.
 
Moderate Right said:
LOL. Seriously? You're kidding, right? Refer to post #1. You sound like Rudy G in trying to say that the truth isn't really the truth.
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You said the 2010 midterm results are far more huge than the 2018 ones will be. Considering that the 2018 elections are not over, I call BS.
 
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