Pennsylvania's 18th House District? Pick your winner??

Chomsky · Mar 12, 2018

Beaudreaux said:
NC State Law limits the governor to 2 consecutive terms. It doesn't say "No person shall be elected to the office of the President (governor) more than twice" which is what the 22nd Amendment says. So, a NC governor can serve 2 consecutive terms (8 years), then take 4 years off, then run again and serve 2 more consecutive terms (8 more years), and then wash, rinse, repeat, as many times as he or she can live long enough to get re-elected.

POTUS can only be elected to two terms. Whether they are consecutive terms, or they get elected to one term, then get voted out for however long, then get re-elected to a second term after someone else served as POTUS.

Exactly.

Though I'm not sure if a two term Pres can then go on to serve as VP. I do not believe he is precluded, though.

Beaudreaux · Mar 12, 2018

Chomsky said:
Exactly.

Though I'm not sure if a two term Pres can then go on to serve as VP. I do not believe he is precluded, though.

I think he'd be precluded due to one requirement of the VP is to be able to become POTUS, which the 22nd would prevent him from doing. Kind of a chicken versus the egg argument, but I think that's the way it would work.

haymarket · Mar 12, 2018

Beaudreaux said:
I think he'd be precluded due to one requirement of the VP is to be able to become POTUS, which the 22nd would prevent him from doing. Kind of a chicken versus the egg argument, but I think that's the way it would work.

Could that not be resolved by simply going to the next person in line.... the Speaker of the House?

yankintx · Mar 12, 2018

Risky Thicket said:
It will be very close I think. A Trump endorsement is now being seen as a possible kiss of death to politicians seeking election or re-election.

Even here in Arizona our own Tea Bagging, dark money, Trump loving governor is now distancing from Trump as the governor soon faces a close second term bid in November.

Candidates from both parties will be watching Pennsylvania closely. The more Trump wanders off into personal attacks, vulgarity, sexual adventure, advocation of violence, bigotry, incoherent utterances and Tweets the more candidates will be forced to weigh the risks against the benefits of being associated with Trump. How much can a ***** grabbing, vulgarian, world "leader" bully his way into the hearts and minds of local voters? Even evangelicals are now jumping off the Trump train.

Now that we all have had a year of Trump attitudes have changed. Pennsylvania seems to have begun to lose faith and patience in Trump's clownish behavior, bombasity and half assed promises. We shall see.

Don't forget about Trumps lack of integrity. He is losing the Vets and military for this very reason. We don't care for leaders who lie on an hourly basis. Air Force integrity in all we do, and the CIC has zero.

Chomsky · Mar 12, 2018

Beaudreaux said:
I think he'd be precluded due to one requirement of the VP is to be able to become POTUS, which the 22nd would prevent him from doing. Kind of a chicken versus the egg argument, but I think that's the way it would work.

Great point, Beaudreaux.

Your logic seems sound.

Beaudreaux · Mar 12, 2018

haymarket said:
Could that not be resolved by simply going to the next person in line.... the Speaker of the House?

It could, I guess. But, if one of the requirements to be qualified for VP, is to be qualified to be POTUS, would that not make a person disqualified to be VP if they are not qualified to be POTUS by the 22nd Amendment? See, the chicken and the egg thing again.

Also, if the 25th took over, and the SOTH became POTUS, would the VP remain VP since they were elected as VP, or would the SOTH be able to appoint a VP of his or her choosing once sworn in as POTUS?

ttwtt78640 · Mar 12, 2018

Chomsky said:
Exactly.

Though I'm not sure if a two term Pres can then go on to serve as VP. I do not believe he is precluded, though.

Risky business since they could have to become POTUS. In that case they would likely have to resign and let the Speaker of the House take the job. There is a provision for 2.5 terms but only if they were not elected to their first (not quite?) half term.

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

EDIT: Never mind - the 12A says that the VP must be qualified to become POTUS.

The Twelfth Amendment states that “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice President of the United States.”

https://system.uslegal.com/executive-branch/vice-president/

haymarket · Mar 12, 2018

Beaudreaux said:
It could, I guess. But, if one of the requirements to be qualified for VP, is to be qualified to be POTUS, would that not make a person disqualified to be VP if they are not qualified to be POTUS by the 22nd Amendment? See, the chicken and the egg thing again.

Also, if the 25th took over, and the SOTH became POTUS, would the VP remain VP since they were elected as VP, or would the SOTH be able to appoint a VP of his or her choosing once sworn in as POTUS?

Here are the relevant parts of the Constitution In Article II

5: No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

6: In Case of the Removal of the President from Office, or of his Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office,9 the Same shall devolve on the VicePresident, and the Congress may by Law provide for the Case of Removal, Death, Resignation or Inability, both of the President and Vice President, declaring what Officer shall then act as President, and such Officer shall act accordingly, until the Disability be removed, or a President shall be elected.

I do not see anything there which would bar a former President from being a Vice President. In fact, one could argue that the Founders - using the word INABILITY - perhaps foresaw some eventuality just like this. Thats a stretch for sure - but the word INABILITY does leave the door ajar if not altogether open.

You ask a great question as to if the Speaker becoming President would saddle him with the Vice President who was unable to assume the presidency. The 25th Amendment, Section 2 says that a vacancy in the Vice Presidents office must occur for the new President (formerly the Speaker) to nominate a new VP to be then confirmed by Congress. One could argue that no such vacancy would have occurred so the sitting VP could stay on even if the Speaker played leapfrog and jumped to the higher office.

Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

I think we have stumbled on a future film or TV plot.

AGENT J · Mar 12, 2018

JANFU said:
Pennsylvania's 18th House District?
Pick your winner

Saccone wins Yes

Lamb wins Yes

Close win by either reflects on Trump - Yes

Lamb wins by 5-10 - House members in close districts should worry -Yes

Saccone wins by 5-10 -House members in close districts should worry -Yes

https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania's_18th_Congressional_District
Close win-either reflects on Trump - No

Tim Murphy 2014 & 2016 unopposed - Heavy Republican district -
Voting back to 2002 Republicans in easily

Murphy 2012 win - R -216,727 to D- 122,146

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...about-the-pennsylvania-18th-special-election/

Being from PA i can tell you Lamb has a really good shot. Right now he is ahead in polls taken but being that the redistrict doesnt effect THIS special election its a really tough battle for him actually.

The smear campaign they are trying against him is pathetic and hilarious at the same time. Im curious if those things ever work, like if theres evidence the smear part was responsible in anyway? No intelligent person could fall for these. I mean if you like Saccone, great vote for him! If you are voting because of those ads and no other reason you are a moron lol. The smear ads against lamb are so bad they dont even seem real. they seem like joke skits. lol

Anyway talking to everyday people lamb has a chance for sure and seems like he is a shoe in
polls in papers from left and right have Lamb leading (hence the smear campaign )
Knowing the way the district is gerrymandered . . I'm doubtful.

JANFU · Mar 12, 2018

AGENT J said:
Being from PA i can tell you Lamb has a really good shot. Right now he is ahead in polls taken but being that the redistrict doesnt effect THIS special election its a really tough battle for him actually.

The smear campaign they are trying against him is pathetic and hilarious at the same time. Im curious if those things ever work, like if theres evidence the smear part was responsible in anyway? No intelligent person could fall for these. I mean if you like Saccone, great vote for him! If you are voting because of those ads and no other reason you are a moron lol. The smear ads against lamb are so bad they dont even seem real. they seem like joke skits. lol

Anyway talking to everyday people lamb has a chance for sure and seems like he is a shoe in
polls in papers from left and right have Lamb leading (hence the smear campaign )
Knowing the way the district is gerrymandered . . I'm doubtful.

I think I saw one- Pelosi had a Little Lamb???

Chomsky · Mar 12, 2018

ttwtt78640 said:
Risky business since they could have to become POTUS. In that case they would likely have to resign and let the Speaker of the House take the job. There is a provision for 2.5 terms but only if they were not elected to their first (not quite?) half term.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

Good info. Thanks.

AGENT J · Mar 12, 2018

JANFU said:
I think I saw one- Pelosi had a Little Lamb???

oh they are horrible. They are so bad you cant help but laugh. Even the people i know that are hard righties and want Saccone make fun of them . . . and now trump and his son are here? That turned some people majorly off and they said they are staying home.

But like i said, the district is terrible, when its redone ill be in it again.

ttwtt78640 · Mar 12, 2018

Chomsky said:
Good info. Thanks.

Never mind - see edit.

Chomsky · Mar 12, 2018

ttwtt78640 said:
Never mind - see edit.

Ooops!

But thanks anyway, buddy. :thumbs:

ttwtt78640 · Mar 12, 2018

Chomsky said:
Ooops!

But thanks anyway, buddy. :thumbs:

I didn't think to look at earlier amendments but Google saved me.

Chomsky · Mar 12, 2018

AGENT J said:
oh they are horrible. They are so bad you cant help but laugh. Even the people i know that are hard righties and want Saccone make fun of them . . . and now trump and his son are here? That turned some people majorly off and they said they are staying home.

But like i said, the district is terrible, when its redone ill be in it again.

Thanks for those posts from boots on the ground, J! :thumbs:

But I've got to ask:

"What's the feedback on the ground with Trump's Steel tariffs?"

And is it true there's very little steel industry left in the district, and rather it's become more of a service economy with a significant & growing suburban presence?

AGENT J · Mar 12, 2018

Chomsky said:
Thanks for those posts from boots on the ground, J! :thumbs:

But I've got to ask:

"What's the feedback on the ground with Trump's Steel tariffs?"

And is it true there's very little steel industry left in the district, and rather it's become more of a service economy with a significant & growing suburban presence?

No problem!

Here in PA it seems if you are retired and came from coal/steal family you like it and talk about how it will be great to have pittsburgh back as a steel town ( somethign that will NEVER happen, pure fantasy) But "talk" like that hits home with the old timers. There was a video of a guy from Monessen I think. Close to me that voted republican for the first time in like 50 years because trump said he was bringing back coal. He bought it, he came from a coal family and wanted that for his family . . .well . . still no coal . . and it aint coming. He knows that now and regrets his decision. (Please note this is NOT an endorsement for either side, im a independent, its just a local story that relates to your question)

And if you are younger its mixed reviews with the minority for it but most not caring or not liking it because it could impact our tech industry negatively.

Pittsburgh hasnt been about steel for a while. Is there still steel here? of course! But we are now a medical, education and tech city basically.

AGENT J · Mar 12, 2018

Chomsky said:
Thanks for those posts from boots on the ground, J! :thumbs:

But I've got to ask:

"What's the feedback on the ground with Trump's Steel tariffs?"

And is it true there's very little steel industry left in the district, and rather it's become more of a service economy with a significant & growing suburban presence?

AGENT J said:
No problem!

Here in PA it seems if you are retired and came from coal/steal family you like it and talk about how it will be great to have pittsburgh back as a steel town ( somethign that will NEVER happen, pure fantasy) But "talk" like that hits home with the old timers. There was a video of a guy from Monessen I think. Close to me that voted republican for the first time in like 50 years because trump said he was bringing back coal. He bought it, he came from a coal family and wanted that for his family . . .well . . still no coal . . and it aint coming. He knows that now and regrets his decision. (Please note this is NOT an endorsement for either side, im a independent, its just a local story that relates to your question)

And if you are younger its mixed reviews with the minority for it but most not caring or not liking it because it could impact our tech industry negatively.

Pittsburgh hasnt been about steel for a while. Is there still steel here? of course! But we are now a medical, education and tech city basically.

Here I shoulda looked for this first, sorry

And I for one love it being the nerd that I am and being an engineer lol
Uber is here in major force with their cars, apple and google now etc etc
Its very interesting around here to say the least.

MTAtech · Mar 12, 2018

If I were a Republican candidate, I wouldn't want Trump stumping for me -- even though he is generally popular with Republicans. My view is that he is unpredictable on the podium and he can say something that kills my candidacy and he goes back to Washington taking no responsibility for the loss.

slick · Mar 13, 2018

Looks like a close one with Lamb having a slight edge as of midnight monday:
https://www.5dimes.eu/BbGameSelection.asp

51 Conor Lamb (D) wins PA House of Rep. -170
52 Rick Saccone (R) wins PA House of Rep. +130

Linc · Mar 13, 2018

MTAtech said:
If I were a Republican candidate, I wouldn't want Trump stumping for me -- even though he is generally popular with Republicans. My view is that he is unpredictable on the podium and he can say something that kills my candidacy and he goes back to Washington taking no responsibility for the loss.

This spread shows the 2016 potus vote for the current PA-18 in play tomorrow, not the new one in november.
Clinton is in the 1st and 4th columns; trump in the 2nd and 5th; total in the middle.
370,497 is well above the National average for a CD in 2016.
Table needs better presentation.

-----Allegheny (pt.) 73,926--79,648--159,021--46.49%--50.09%
--------Greene (pt.) --2,287---5,868----8,383--27.28%--70.00%
---Washington (pt.) 28,319--50,045---81,384--34.80%--61.49%
Westmoreland (pt.) 38,173--79,541--121,709--31.36%--65.35%

Here's a link to the POTUS vote by CD for the last 3 elections.
It's been updated to show new maps in a dozen or so states, including PA.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...essional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

Linc · Mar 13, 2018

JANFU said:
If the win, for either is close, expect more Republicans in the House to not run again.
I do think the House is in play, thing is if the Dems go to far left, they will lose voters. Just my opinion
That said the Dems best get their act together on policies, that also target rural US, rust belt, and those States that were normally Dem but went for Trump. People ain't happy with either party

It was a long string of special election losses in 1974 that finally moved those 'noble' gops to launch nixon.
I'll give it until August, just like nixon, when SC Mueller finishes up.

This PA-18 map had 371 thousand votes for potus in 2016,
compared to an average of about 310 thousand in the 435 CDs ...

AGENT J · Mar 14, 2018

Conor Lamb squeaks it out...

I honestly believe that bringing Trump and his son in lost it for Saccone.

Pennsylvania's 18th House District? Pick your winner??

Pennsylvania's 18th House District? Pick your winner?

Saccone wins Yes

Lamb wins Yes

Close win-either reflects on Trump - Yes

Lamb wins under -10 - House members in close districts should worry -Yes

Saccone wins under -10 - House members in close districts should worry - No

Social Democrat

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Land by the Gulf Stream

Social Democrat

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Sometimes wrong

Social Democrat

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