You raise some interesting points that I find I simultaneously agree and disagree with.
Mr. Trumps "protectionist/defensive" trade measures will:
- help the US because American industry compete domestically;
- hurt the US because American industry will not have access to the resources which the US does not possess in sufficient quantities to enable it to operate at a level which will allow it to supply all of America's needs;
- help the rest of the world because the rest of the world will have to increase the quantity and quality of its own industrial infrastructure; and
- hurt the rest of the world because the rest of the world will be deprived of the American market.
However, the rest of the world (around 95% of the world's population)
does not require the United States of America for its economic well being because the rest of the world
does have access to the resources which it needs (and in sufficient quantities) to enable it to operate at a level which will allow it to supply all of the rest of the world's needs.
On balance, it would appear that (in the long-run) Mr. Trumps "protectionist/defensive" trade measures are more likely than not to benefit the rest of the world more than they are going to benefit the United States of America even though (in the short-run) the dislocation of the rest of the world's economies
MIGHT benefit the US more than they are going to benefit the rest of the world.
The two countries which Mr. Trumps "protectionist/defensive" trade measures would appear to most adversely affect (in the short-run) are Canada and Mexico - both of which have already signed on to the (new and improved) TPP - which China may well sign on to. Additionally, Canada already has "free trade" agreements with the EU and the UK.
Who knows, there is always the possibility that the Russians might see some advantage (for Russia) in making commercial overtures to Canada in a bid to absorb a goodly portion of the Canada/US trade (even if Russia does so at a [short-term] loss).
The postulate that "American will be 'Energy Independent' because the US will always have unrestricted access to Canadian petroleum products." might not be as true as some Americans think - especially if the Canadians get upset over the fact that a major portion of the funding for the "anti-pipeline" groups in Canada is coming from people with a LARGE vested interest in the American petroleum industry and who want to see the US being able to purchase Canadian petroleum products at well below world prices.
PS - The odds on seeing any campaign to stop Canadian Oil Dumping" gaining any traction in the US are slightly lower than the odds on me being elected "God/King of the Universe".