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Will There Be A Shutdown This Time?

Will the government shut down in January?


  • Total voters
    27




Oh redress, too cowardly to post your opinion, just start ambiguous threads then attack people for having opinions. Such a joke.


What tantrum did I have? I am simply debating here. It's sad how much time you spend on DP without ever putting forth actual positions. It's wierd actually. almost as wierd as your avatar and sigs.
 
Ultimately, there's two question. Who's to blame, and who gets blamed.

In terms of get blamed, I'm honestly not sure. If I was a betting man, I think it actually won't have much true impact in terms of blame. Often, the minority party within the three segments that play into this equation is "blamed" for a shutdown because they are the ones generally able to stop it in some fashion. However, Trump and the Republican brand is horrible right now outside of his stalwarts, and Democrats have been doing a better job messaging wise, so I could see this falling on the shoulders of a man that was supposed to "Get things done" but didn't. I see this following a pattern I've been watching for some time now....the stalwarts on both sides will adamantly blame the other side, and those with the middle will just show a generalized disgust for the process as a whole.

In terms of who deserves the blame? It really depends how this goes. If the Republicans can't come to an agreement to at least get the budget out of the House, then frankly a lionshare of the blame is going onto them. There's no real chance for a filibuster there and they have a majority; if they can't get it out of the house then they've only themselves to blame.

If it makes it out of the house and gets to the senate, then it becomes a situation where I place a significant amount of blame across the board. This is the goddamn budget we're talking about. Both sides need to understand at times you're not going to manage to get 100% of what you want unless you have all three segments of this equation in fillibuster proof majorities. Both sides need to come to the table somewhat realistic and if they can't get something solved, they all deserve a large amount.

If it fails singularly because of Democratic filibuster, I put more blame on them then the other side (I said the same thing about Republicans in 2013, and laid responsibility for that shutdown heavily on their heads). If it fails and they can't even get 50 Republican votes on it, then it starts swinging the other way for it being, yet again, and instance where they can't get their **** straight. This would be even more true if they had a super majority right now.

This is similar to how I talk about the ACA and it being "watered down". Many blame Republicans for that; I don't. It was democrats moderating and stripping away things from the plan in order to get their own party in order that truly led it to it's final form, not Republicans. Same here. If you can't get your own house in order, if you can't get your own people to agree, then it doesn't matter if the other side is also disagreeing because you've not even reached a point where you're ready to deal with them.

Ultimately, a shutdown is just going to grow a distaste, disdain, and dissatisfaction with government. Trumps base won't necessarily mind that, because they're predisposed to those feelings about government and are quick to deflect the fault of any of it from Trump. Democratic base won't necessarily mind that, because they're predisposed to feel that way about anything with Trump. However, I think both parties aren't going to want the potential issues this causes with those in the fat middle, and that's why I think something will get done...albiet something that's likely a kick of the can.

beautyandthemonster.jpg
 
As we approach the newest deadline to fund the government, things are looking tough. Democrats are threatening to vote no without shielding DREAMers, hawkish conservatives are threatening to vote no one a short term spending bill saying(with some justification) that it hurts the military, deficit hawks are threatening to vote no one spending increases. GOP leadership in the house and senate are feeling alot of pressure and are worrying bigtime. The last vote to fund the government for a month had GOP vote counters working until the last minute to get the votes they needed(they ended up getting more than enough).

So, with all that said, is this the time that everything breaks down, or do cooler heads work out a last minute deal? Bonus question: If the government does shut down, who is to blame primarily?

Poll incoming, patients for my slow typing please...

I don't see what the democrats have to gain. They either make a deal with Trump to include the wall or they don't, then they can decide if they want to shut down the government in order to channel California, Land of Fruits, Flakes, and Nuts.

If they want to die on that hill, let them.
 
It doesn't matter, whenever they "shut down" they all get paid retroactively once they start up again. For it to have some teeth they have to shut down and dock everyone involved.
 
I doubt it will. Both sides know a shutdown is radioactive as an issue can get, so they'll do everything to avoid it.
 
As we approach the newest deadline to fund the government, things are looking tough. Democrats are threatening to vote no without shielding DREAMers, hawkish conservatives are threatening to vote no one a short term spending bill saying(with some justification) that it hurts the military, deficit hawks are threatening to vote no one spending increases. GOP leadership in the house and senate are feeling alot of pressure and are worrying bigtime. The last vote to fund the government for a month had GOP vote counters working until the last minute to get the votes they needed(they ended up getting more than enough).

So, with all that said, is this the time that everything breaks down, or do cooler heads work out a last minute deal? Bonus question: If the government does shut down, who is to blame primarily?

Poll incoming, patients for my slow typing please...

What is the big deal of a government shutdown? All essential services continue. Only non-essential personnel do not report to work, they get a vacation. They get paid once the government is funded again. One has to wonder why non-essential personnel are working for the government to begin with?

Between 1976 and 1987 there were 14 government shutdowns. An average of more than one a year. Those of us who lived through them took them as no big deal. Around funding/budget time, one figured there would be a shutdown. Another one occurred in 1990, again in 1995 and another in 1996. That is 17 government shutdowns in 20 years.

Why all the hoopla? Congress tries to blame the president, the president congress. The Republicans try to blame the Democrats and the Democrats the Republicans. Politicians and political parties try to install fear in the public with hyperbolic rhetoric that the world is coming to an end. This is done in the search for votes. As they try to get the public mad at the other party for shutting down government in hopes the public will vote for them and against the other party.

Perhaps we all should just ignore it. Go about our business and let the politicians have a fainting spell because no one has gotten up in arms.
 
As we approach the newest deadline to fund the government, things are looking tough. Democrats are threatening to vote no without shielding DREAMers, hawkish conservatives are threatening to vote no one a short term spending bill saying(with some justification) that it hurts the military, deficit hawks are threatening to vote no one spending increases. GOP leadership in the house and senate are feeling alot of pressure and are worrying bigtime. The last vote to fund the government for a month had GOP vote counters working until the last minute to get the votes they needed(they ended up getting more than enough).

So, with all that said, is this the time that everything breaks down, or do cooler heads work out a last minute deal? Bonus question: If the government does shut down, who is to blame primarily?

Poll incoming, patients for my slow typing please...
Trump says: no Wall then no DACA, the Dems say no DACA and no budget.

Clue: Many Republicans support DACA.

Me thinks trump will win only part of his agenda and he will declare that he did what he could. And his fans will yell Yes! There is one born every minute..................
 
What is the big deal of a government shutdown?

A few things.

1. It's ALWAYS going to end up costing the government more than it saves. Why? First, because you are still having essential services, it's not like you're actually fully shutting down a lot of offices. So much of the operating costs for the various buildings just keep right along chugging. What's more, the longer the shutdown goes, the more backlog of work that needs to be done once it starts back up. Working on backlog work pushes other work off, often either requiring overtime, more hiring, or simply inefficient work. For example, cutting essential employees paychecks is not "essential" work, but it's something that absolutely DOES have to happen once the government opens again. There are a plethora of duties like this that have to then be taken care of. Additionally, dealing with the reality that it's almost unheard of for a shutdown to occur and backpay not end up being given, it's not even like you're saving significant money for those that aren't working but instead have actually basically paid people NOT to work.

2. Those essential employees? They're basically working for free for...who knows how long. The last shutdown was for an entire pay period and bleeded into another, meaning that those essential employees went a month without pay. Now for some people, that may not be a huge deal. However, I know had I still bee employeed in my first job up here in the Northern Virginia area, a month without pay would've meant that I would've been unable to pay pretty much any of my bills. This suddenly starts adding up as not only do you have late bills, but then late payment charges, and other such issues. So even though they may still be "working", they're not getting paid for it.

3. Similarly, those non-essential employees? The difference between a "vacation" and a shutdown is the fact that, as above, you're not getting any kind of paycheck. If you're someone who's been in a good enough financial place to put aside a few months of savings, you're fine. But many people are not like that, and for those individuals a pay period or two or three without pay could be disastrous and hardly like a "vacation".
Even with backpay, that backpay isn't going to magically fix the hits to your credit if you're late on your mortgage, or student loans, or credit card payments, etc.

One has to wonder why non-essential personnel are working for the government to begin with?

One has to wonder why someone so grandly ignorant of what non-essential personnel do has the audacity to speak to it.

Tell me, do you think government employees should be paid? Because the people who process those payments? They're non-essential employees, doing a non-essential duty. Clearly, why in the world would we have the government actually bothering paying it's employees since it's "non-essential". How about Human Capital and Business Management related things such as hiring, or dealing with the agencies budget, or dealing with employee benefits, or organizing the job related training for employees. All of those things tend to be considered "non-essential" in major agencies during a shutdown; are you suggesting that we should be "wondering" why the government has people working for them doing those things in the first place.

Grrrr! Stupid old government, they should be more like private industry. Because you know, private industry doesn't bother with payroll, budgets, hiring, or training.

And while it may not seem like a major impact to you, understand everything doesn't function within your little budget. Within the DC / Maryland / Virginia metro area, a shutdown causes strain across every sector of the economy as suddenly the spending of money dries up significantly for a portion of time due to the number of families that have, in some way, a connection to government employment in the area.

Now does that mean a government shutdown is the end of the world? No. I had a similar reaming out of someone who ignorantly, years ago, declared that a shutdown was going to make the country significantly less safe from national security threats; something that, barring an extremely long term shutdown, was preposterous. A shutdown is not going to destroy things, but it's also not a ho hum vacation of sunshines and lollipops with no real negative side effects either. If you're going to downplay what it is and how it's going to happen I suggest you at least make yourself less ignorant of what actually occurs and what it actually impacts.
 
As we approach the newest deadline to fund the government, things are looking tough. Democrats are threatening to vote no without shielding DREAMers, hawkish conservatives are threatening to vote no one a short term spending bill saying(with some justification) that it hurts the military, deficit hawks are threatening to vote no one spending increases. GOP leadership in the house and senate are feeling alot of pressure and are worrying bigtime. The last vote to fund the government for a month had GOP vote counters working until the last minute to get the votes they needed(they ended up getting more than enough).

So, with all that said, is this the time that everything breaks down, or do cooler heads work out a last minute deal? Bonus question: If the government does shut down, who is to blame primarily?

Poll incoming, patients for my slow typing please...

Don't know. I am not a physcic. I have no problem is there is a partial government shutdown.
 
Sorry, I will try to be more respectful next time.

Don't really need your respect but a little common sense would go a long way.

Okay, and Republicans control both Houses and the White House this time, and approval ratings for Trump and Republican Congressmen are in the toilet. So yeah, good luck with putting the onus on Democrats.

And Chuckles Schumer and Nancy 'botox' Pelosi approval ratings are lower than Trump's....so there!
 
And Chuckles Schumer and Nancy 'botox' Pelosi approval ratings are lower than Trump's....so there!

Nope. Schumer's approval in New York is 55%. I can't find a 12th district poll on Pelosi but considering that she won with 80.9% of the vote I'm assuming she's popular with her constituents. Trump, meanwhile, is hanging in there at 40.7%.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2472
https://ballotpedia.org/California's_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2016
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
 
As we approach the newest deadline to fund the government, things are looking tough. Democrats are threatening to vote no without shielding DREAMers, hawkish conservatives are threatening to vote no one a short term spending bill saying(with some justification) that it hurts the military, deficit hawks are threatening to vote no one spending increases. GOP leadership in the house and senate are feeling alot of pressure and are worrying bigtime. The last vote to fund the government for a month had GOP vote counters working until the last minute to get the votes they needed(they ended up getting more than enough).

So, with all that said, is this the time that everything breaks down, or do cooler heads work out a last minute deal? Bonus question: If the government does shut down, who is to blame primarily?

Poll incoming, patients for my slow typing please...

I don't have a strong belief that it will, but it seems quite plausible so I voted yes. The Republicans still are far from being a governing party, they're a smattering of opposition parties that are barely getting together. Democrats are also an opposition party, but they're in the minority. Therefore, I'm struggling to see how three or four extremely intransigent sides who hate each other (and are walking into a highly contentious midterm election, possibly more contentious than 2006 and 2010) and needs to appease increasingly polarized bases.

If you stack all of this together, it's kind of difficult to see what the exact contours around a compromise would look like, but I haven't inspected the data closely enough to form a strong opinion. It just seems broadly that the legislative branch is going to be deadlocked with itself over the next one to three years.
 
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