• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

What is the MAIN reason Roy Moore lost the election?

What is the MAIN reason Roy Moore lost the election?

  • Total voters
    76
  • Poll closed .
Rogue Valley

Rogue Valley

Lead or get out of the way
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 18, 2013
Messages
94,329
Reaction score
82,719
Location
Barsoom
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
Just curious....
 
Rogue Valley said:
Just curious....
Click to expand...

The people of Alabama decided that Moore was too extreme and many believed his accusers. They decided that a bigoted, accused childmolester kicked off the bench twice was worse than a Democrat.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Just curious....
Click to expand...

He is a bigot and a pedophile, while the Republican base was fine with that, the few remaining moderates in the party and everyone else wasn't. Thus he narrowly lost.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Just curious....
Click to expand...

Moore's own conduct caused him to lose...

...but it was Steve Bannon that got him to win the primary, and so made the problem far worse. Luther Strange - whom Moore defeated in the primary - would probably have easily defeated Doug Jones. Moore lost a senate seat...but Bannon lost his whole argument for the transformation of the GOP.
 
538's Nate Silver wrote an interesting article on this today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-shouldnt-assume-roy-moore-was-an-outlier/

First, we can assign about 10 points to the national political environment. That’s because the generic congressional ballot favors Democrats by about 10 points, meaning that you’d expect the Democrat to win the typical swing seat by about 10 points in this political climate.3
Next, we can assign about 10 points to Moore’s problems as a candidate other than the sexual misconduct allegations. If Republicans ordinarily win in Alabama by 25 or 30 points and the national environment favors Democrats by 10 points, you’d expect a “generic” Republican candidate to be ahead by 15 or 20 points. Instead, Moore’s lead was in the range of 5 to 10 points in polls before the sexual misconduct allegations came to light.4
And finally, we can assign another 10 points to shifts in voter preferences and turnout patterns because of the misconduct allegations. That roughly matches the swing from the pre-allegation polls to Jones’s eventual margin of victory. It also lines up with empirical research on the electoral effects of scandals. Although many voters didn’t believe the allegations, many others did, and it affected Moore’s campaign in a variety of ways, such as by decreasing Republican enthusiasm.
Click to expand...

He goes on to say that without all 3, Moore would have won.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Just curious....
Click to expand...

Roy Moore was a terrible candidate. Ignore the false accusations flung his way by attention whores looking for a quick buck. He was removed from office not once, but twice. McConnell didn't want him. Trump didn't want him. I don't know what the GOP was thinking when he was chosen over Luther Strange. I wish I could find some interviews from voters during the primary who thought to themselves: "I can't vote for Luther Strange, his politics are too radical..."

There's also this...

By the end of November, Jones had outspent Moore on advertising in the general election. According to Advertising Analytics, Jones had aired more than 10,000 television spots and spent $5.6 million. Moore aired one-tenth that number of ads and spent about $800,000 on them.

Jones also outraised Moore in individual contributions, $11.5 million to $5.2 million. This was significantly more than any other Democratic Senate candidate in Alabama in the previous 10 years—the previous high in this time period was Vivian Davis Figures in 2008 with $293,000.

With this fundraising boost, Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Alabama since Richard Shelby in 1992. Shelby later switched his party affiliation to Republican in 1994.
Click to expand...

Apparently the Dems spent money hand over fist for a symbolic win. The GOP will come out the winners in the long term since this was not even a full term and any reasonable GOP candidate will take the seat in 2020.
 
It's the allegations that he lusted after a bunch of high school girls. I didn't vote for Moore himself, because that sole element of his history was what sank his campaign - no amount of personality flaws would have made Alabama vote blue, it literally took a sex offender to turn this one election blue.
 
A threshold was met in how far the morale of the GOP can be lowered, even in the reddest state in this union.

I think Trump's endorsement also brought out a demographic that was simply tired of the president thinking his influence on Twitter is enough to make them vote for anything.
 
Dems turn out is the only reason he lost the GOP still voted for this jerk just because they are the GOP.:peace nothing changes for GOP voters so call conservative Christians seems to love voting for assholes. I expect nothing to change.
 
reinoe said:
Roy Moore was a terrible candidate. Ignore the false accusations flung his way by attention whores looking for a quick buck. He was removed from office not once, but twice. McConnell didn't want him. Trump didn't want him.
Click to expand...

You're either lying or ignorant of Trump's statements on Roy Moore, which is it?
 
got fewer votes is my guess



















turnout
especially among blacks, women, and young voters
 
Roy Moore lost because Roy Moore believes things were better when people like him were called massa, and women couldn't vote.

Yep, he can go **** himself with several cacti.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Just curious....
Click to expand...

Perhaps Moore was too far out of the mainstream for even Republicans? Not really as 91% of Republicans voted for Moore. Those who did vote, that is. Certainly Moore was too far out for Independents which Jones won. According to the exit polls, independents made up 21% of Alabama voters. Well below the national average of 42%.

There are times when Republicans forget in order to win they must also attract independent voters to their cause. Trump won independents and the presidency last year. Moore lost them this year and the senate seat in Alabama. The Republican Party base isn't big enough to win a general election on its own. By nominating Moore, the Alabama Republicans forgot this fact.

They for forgot it when they nominate Aiken, Mourdock, Miller, Angle, O'Donnell in the past over more mainstream Republican candidates. All lost. The sexual allegations did play a part in how independents voted, that can't be denied. Strange in my opinion would have won in a cakewalk, but he was more mainstream for a Republican and Alabama Republicans opted for Moore. The independent vote is becoming more and more important when it comes to general elections. Independents has grown from roughly 30% in the 1990's to 44% of the electorate today. Neither party can win without them, yet as seen with the Democratic nomination of Hillary last year, a candidate independents disliked even more than Trump and Moore in Alabama this year, independents are a force to be reckoned with.

With the two parties shrinking, perhaps each should pay more attention to those who fall into the non-affiliated column when choosing their candidates.
 
I voted other....my real choice was all of the above.


1. Roy Moore was close to if not the most unfit candidate to ever run for office.
2. Doug Jones was a moderate, accomplished, and hard working campaigner.
3. Sexual Allegations....duh, I should hope so.
4. Steve Bannon's support definitely lit a fire under the voters sick to death of hearing his hateful thoughts.
5. Donald Trump's support definitely lit a fire under the voters sick to death of hearing his hateful thoughts.
6. Mitch McConnell's now I with him, now I'm against him, no wait, I'm against him....he is maybe the least responsible for this outcome.
7. GOP Establishment's luke warm support of the GOP candidate certainly helped to suppress Moore vote.
8. Democrats did their job, knocked on doors, made the calls, got out the vote.
9. MSM did their job, and kept a spot light on this special election.
 
Let's be real. If Moore hadn't been outed as a child molester, he would have wiped the floor with Jones.

Yes, many of his stances were detestable even to many Republicans. But Republicans are generally willing to stand by their extremists, even if they have to hold their nose as they do it. Before the child molestation stuff, Moore was solidly in the lead, despite the fact that Alabamians had been familiar with his outrageous stances for many years.

The only reason he lost was because being a child molester is just a tiny bit too far for a sadly small minority of Republicans. But it was a minority that was just big enough that when combined with exceptionally high black voter turnout, it gave Jones the win.

That's it. This means nothing for the GOP or the Dems as a whole. It was just a straight-up simple case of a candidate getting taken out by his own scandals.
 
Last edited:
I'd say in this case, it was more likely than not the sexual misconduct allegations.

While he does have some Bible-belt baggage, that counts as a positive in a Bible-belt State.
 
Roy Moore was unfit to be a judge, a failed part of a highly corrupt Republican state government, a religious extremist, and he was in the bubble that is local Alabama.
You can't make the stuff up that occurs in their state government...people literally have to be taken away in handcuffs to get out of office as a Republican, at one time they had all three government branch heads embroiled in crimes and huge scandals, entirely dysfunctional.

When he decides to run for a national position, he got national interest and investigation. Turns out he was a well known predator of young women, accused of molesting a child, etc. He got weeded out in large part due to investigative journalism.

Thing is, if any state run for senate gets big national attention, they are taking a huge risk when those spotlights focus on them. If it had been a run of the mill election with run of the mill candidates, even a child molester would possibly go undiscovered. It's that big brazen finger to the nation that Roy Moore was so adept at, that likely was what helped cook his goose.
 
Perotista said:
.

With the two parties shrinking, perhaps each should pay more attention to those who fall into the non-affiliated column when choosing their candidates.
Click to expand...

This is a very good point. Our primary system leads to the most extreme candidates. Independents are usually left out, and only the most die hard party members show up and vote in the primaries. The result if often candidates like Moore.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Just curious....
Click to expand...

The main reason he lost was due to the sexual allegations. That's it IMO. Had he not had those, I have no doubt the backwards, ignorant, bigoted majority populace of Alabama would have elected that asshole and he would have won. Hell I think they would have even elected him under sexual allegations had it not been a minor involved in the allegations.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Just curious....
Click to expand...

Who knows but, couldnt even begin to REALLY know but my guess its "because Rob Moore himself" . . . .he is/was a horrible politician, judge and person with or without anything else on the list so that SHOULD be the reason he lost but again just because thats logical doesnt mean thats why . .
 
I think the sexual allegations are what hurt him the most.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Just curious....
Click to expand...

Evidently, voters found that the bar had been lowered too much, and actually didn't vote for a racist homophobic theocratic child molester.
 
JMR said:
This is a very good point. Our primary system leads to the most extreme candidates. Independents are usually left out, and only the most die hard party members show up and vote in the primaries. The result if often candidates like Moore.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Gallup puts the figures as of 8 Nov 2017 as Republicans 25%, Democrats 30% independents 42% of the electorate. Compare that to 2008 when it was R 30%, D 35%, I 34 or to 2000 when it was R 32% D 37% I 30%. I think the rise in independents has to do with the two major parties moving further and further to the left and right leaving more folks without a political home or a party to identify with. Both major parties have become more hard core shedding their moderates.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom