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2018 Election Predictions

2018 Election Predictions - How do you think it will turn out?

  • Total voters
    48
  • Poll closed .
Phys251 said:
Nope, it's called reality. Conservative lobbyists have helped to rig the system ever since Citizens United and the 2010 midterms--and there's little excuse for our losing those--but after that, well, the system is rigged in Republicans' favor. For instance, in 2012, the Democrats got more votes for representatives than the GOP did, yet because of gerrymandering, the GOP retained control of the house.
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Well, that certainly sounds a lot easier to swallow than to consider that the Democrat party could ever be accountable for their own losses.
 
X Factor said:
Well, that certainly sounds a lot easier to swallow than to consider that the Democrat party could ever be accountable for their own losses.
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There is absolutely no way you can justify what happenedin 2012. Most republicans benefited from being in gerrymandered districts.
 
X Factor said:
Well, that certainly sounds a lot easier to swallow than to consider that the Democrat party could ever be accountable for their own losses.
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Whatever. You guys haven't wanted a clean election since the 1990s. No wonder so many progressives are so burned out with the electoral system. On that issue, I can't blame them.
 
Fletch said:
The democrat argument for power seems to be "vote for us because Trump is bad." Well, that is the campaign platform they ran on in 2016. And how did that turn out? If they want power, they will have to make a case for what they plan to do with it. So far, they haven't.
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Considering that the Republicans have been in power for 6 months and have barely accomplished anything, all the Democrats probably have to do is point to the GOP and Trump's horrendous attempts at "governing" to gain back power.
 
beerftw said:
My prediction is the republicans will maintain or slightly increase their majority, while the democrats will be dissapointed. This has to do with how many seats each party has for re election, and the fact the democrats are running solely on the anti trump train, and no real policy to stand out other than identity politics.

In 2020 it will be a much different story, republicans have many more seats to lose as well as in 2022, and by then the democrats will probably have dumped the anti trump rhetoric and the identity politics and broadened there policy, combined with the party in power malaise.

Normally I would expect the democrats to make out like bandits in 2018, but so far they seem to refuse to adopt a real platform, and it is unlikely they will until 2018 hits and makes them realize the i'm not trump platform is a dead end, the democrats today remind me of the democrats in 2004, bush bad me good vote for me because i'm not him.
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Wait, what platform do Trump and the Republicans have? Hell, they had no "platform" in 2010 and 2014, and still did well.

The problem for the Democrats is getting a strong turn out among their base in the mid-terms. That said, the anti Trump sentiment is strong, and it may get people out to the polls who sat out in 2016, or who voted third party.
 
Since Republicans have turned their backs on President Trump and are siding with the Democrats against him on Healthcare and other issues I think they will lose a lot of ground and rightly so.

The Democrats haven't betrayed their leader and that loyalty will bring them some seats in congress and among the states. I think 2018 will be the beginning of the end of Republican dominance in congress and the states. The White House will revert back to the Democrats in 2020.
 
Fantôme said:
Since Republicans have turned their backs on President Trump and are siding with the Democrats against him on Healthcare and other issues I think they will lose a lot of ground and rightly so.

The Democrats haven't betrayed their leader and that loyalty will bring them some seats in congress and among the states. I think 2018 will be the beginning of the end of Republican dominance in congress and the states. The White House will revert back to the Democrats in 2020.
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I liked your post, but don't ever underestimate the loyalty of Republican voters to the GOP. They despise liberals so much that they will never abandon the GOP no matter what. Don't buy into the phony "we hate the establishment" mantra many of them claim.
 
Puigb said:
I liked your post, but don't ever underestimate the loyalty of Republican voters to the GOP. They despise liberals so much that they will never abandon the GOP no matter what. Don't buy into the phony "we hate the establishment" mantra many of them claim.
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The Republicans didn't elect Trump. It was a whole lot of Independents and moderate Democrats. The Republicans benefited from Trump's appeal. That won't be the case in 2018. I believe a lot of Reps are shocked at the McCain betrayal on ACA and with the out right betrayal of the whole lot of Rep congressmen and Senators. They have a majority and yet they would rather destroy Trump than keep their promises.

This country is in a transition. People feel empowered on both sides. The Reps are in deep trouble for 2018.
 
Fantôme said:
The Republicans didn't elect Trump. It was a whole lot of Independents and moderate Democrats. The Republicans benefited from Trump's appeal. That won't be the case in 2018. I believe a lot of Reps are shocked at the McCain betrayal on ACA and with the out right betrayal of the whole lot of Rep congressmen and Senators. They have a majority and yet they would rather destroy Trump than keep their promises.

This country is in a transition. People feel empowered on both sides. The Reps are in deep trouble for 2018.
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lol, Trump barely won independents. And he didn't win much Democrats. It was Republican voters who elected Trump and the GOP in 2016. And believe me, they aren't abandoning the GOP any time soon. You think your average Republican voter who HATES Democrats will sit out, and let the Democrats win? Not happening.
 
I think Democrats will pick up a few seats. Not a massive shift though. Maybe enough to get a majority in the senate.
 
I don't really know. The election is still fifteen months away, and that is plenty of time for unforeseen events and common sense by the GOP to protect their leads in Congress. Normal bi-term averages plus many Dem Senate seat up may result in two to three Dem losses in the Senate but maybe a dozen House seat pick ups for them.

Since Trump is President, no one can really predict correctly based on where we are right now.
 
If the democrats running for office are populist left like Bernie Sanders, the democrats will win seats. However, if they're elitist like Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi, they will lose seats.
 
Puigb said:
I liked your post, but don't ever underestimate the loyalty of Republican voters to the GOP. They despise liberals so much that they will never abandon the GOP no matter what. Don't buy into the phony "we hate the establishment" mantra many of them claim.
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Oh, they won't vote Dem, but many of them will not vote again, particularly in PA, MI, WI, and MN.
 
JamesBY said:
Oh, they won't vote Dem, but many of them will not vote again, particularly in PA, MI, WI, and MN.
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I disagree, most of those loyal Republican voters will continue to vote for the GOP. After the Bush/Cheney fiasco, you would have thought they would have woken up and abandoned the GOP, but nope...look where we are at now.

One thing that will continue to bring "conservatives" to the GOP is their hatred of liberals. As long as the Democrats are perceived as the party of "liberals", there's no way in hell Republican voters will ever leave the GOP. They won't even even sit out, because they know if they do that, that automatically means the Democrats will win, and they can't have that in their minds.
 
Puigb said:
I disagree, most of those loyal Republican voters will continue to vote for the GOP. After the Bush/Cheney fiasco, you would have thought they would have woken up and abandoned the GOP, but nope...look where we are at now.

One thing that will continue to bring "conservatives" to the GOP is their hatred of liberals. As long as the Democrats are perceived as the party of "liberals", there's no way in hell Republican voters will ever leave the GOP. They won't even even sit out, because they know if they do that, that automatically means the Democrats will win, and they can't have that in their minds.
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We are talking about two different voter groups, not just "loyal" Republican voters. They are not 'conservtives' as you understand them, they don't hate 'liberals', like you do. They voted for Trump in those states because of economic and some cultural values. If the jobs don't come back to the, no matter what happens elsewhere in the country, they won't vote.
 
X Factor said:
How do you think it'll turn out? Poll incoming.
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Citizens are completely disgusted with both parties. Gains by third parties.
/
 
JamesBY said:
We are talking about two different voter groups, not just "loyal" Republican voters. They are not 'conservtives' as you understand them, they don't hate 'liberals', like you do. They voted for Trump in those states because of economic and some cultural values. If the jobs don't come back to the, no matter what happens elsewhere in the country, they won't vote.
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Of course, if it were up to you, there'd be no conservatives at all, would there? :lol:
 
JamesBY said:
We are talking about two different voter groups, not just "loyal" Republican voters. They are not 'conservtives' as you understand them, they don't hate 'liberals', like you do. They voted for Trump in those states because of economic and some cultural values. If the jobs don't come back to the, no matter what happens elsewhere in the country, they won't vote.
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Look at Trump's approval ratings. The guy is still doing very well among Republican voters, despite his overall approval ratings being terrible. The ones who voted for Trump that could very well abandon him in 2020 are independents and moderates. But your standard typical Republican voter will NEVER abandon Trump or the GOP no matter what. Why? Because they hate liberals, and they refuse to ever let the liberals "win". Sitting out and not voting in their minds guarantee's the liberals will win, and they won't have that.
 
Puigb said:
Look at Trump's approval ratings. The guy is still doing very well among Republican voters, despite his overall approval ratings being terrible. The ones who voted for Trump that could very well abandon him in 2020 are independents and moderates. But your standard typical Republican voter will NEVER abandon Trump or the GOP no matter what. Why? Because they hate liberals, and they refuse to ever let the liberals "win". Sitting out and not voting in their minds guarantee's the liberals will win, and they won't have that.
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Yes, among most Republicans Trump will always get their vote. However, there are some desertions, and considering it was only 77K votes that gave Trump the election, the GOP better be looking at the independents again, because that is who drives victories.
 
X Factor said:
How do you think it'll turn out? Poll incoming.
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Don't know. A lot can happen between now and then. Republicans can royally **** up thus creating a easy victory for democrats. Or democrats could royally **** up and create a easy victory for republicans. Heck either party could royally **** up and still win due to some other circumstances. Either party could do awesome and still lose due to some other circumstances.
 
JamesBY said:
Yes, among most Republicans Trump will always get their vote. However, there are some desertions, and considering it was only 77K votes that gave Trump the election, the GOP better be looking at the independents again, because that is who drives victories.
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Not always. Obama won in 2012, despite losing Independents 45%-50% to Romney.
 
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