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Is the stock market in a bubble?

Is the stock market in a bubble?


  • Total voters
    23
Yes. Why is this happening? Well, think about it, this is how taxes are evaded by the wealthy, and the wealthy are increasingly having higher and higher incomes in need of tax evasion.

Tax avoidance and tax evasion are not synonymous. ;)
 
U.S. Companies Post Profit Growth Not Seen in Six Years
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-washington-stalls-company-profits-keep-trucking-1501423201

Dow closes at record high as Street cheers strong earnings season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/31/us-stocks-earnings-season.html

Dow flirts with a fresh milestone: 22,000
Dow flirts with a fresh milestone: 22,000 - MarketWatch



Is it possible that not everyone sees Trumps actions as negative?
More likely, it's an independent variable that has nothing to do with Trump. Remember, there are no new economic policies in effect.
 
The stock market continues to surge (a mind blowing 4006 points since November), though its behavior seems to be divorced form anything actually happening in the news.

Trump shuts down travel from Muslim countries? Dow increases.
Trump slams NATO and exits from Paris Accord? Dow increases.
Missile strikes in Syria? Dow increases.
Slow news day? Dow increases.
Giant pit to hell opens, swallowing up all of Europe. Dow increases.

So is the market's behavior normal, or are we in a bubble? If not, can this be explained entirely by the promise of cutting regulations and taxes?

Also, if you have investments in the stock market, do you feel comfortable, or are you eyeing your investments nervously because you know deep down inside that the fundamentals of the market haven't changed and this surge can't last?

Something I can't help noticing is that as the Dow keeps going up, my etfs which track the market don't necessarily go up too. Often they'll be static or even go in reverse, as is the case today.



https://seekingalpha.com/article/40...ble-biggest-bubble-since-1999-surpassing-2007

You can't expect the stock market to go up forever. Just read an article today that experts are saying that the bond market is in a bubble due to interest rates are too low compared to where they should actually be. When the bond bubble bursts, it will take stocks along with it. This has nothing to do with partisan politics. Of course you would love to blame Trump when the bubble bursts.
 
More likely, it's an independent variable that has nothing to do with Trump. Remember, there are no new economic policies in effect.

Basically I agree with that, so, if it has nothing to do with Trump why is his name brought up in every page of this thread?
 
Basically I agree with that, so, if it has nothing to do with Trump why is his name brought up in every page of this thread?

Well I did put it in the OP so you can at least partially blame me for that. Nonetheless there are a number of reasons why one would, if only academically, consider Trump in relation to the rising DOW:

1. His election victory corresponded to an immediate and sharp spike in the DOW.
2. There is the impression, valid or not, that the market is rising in reaction to perceived future deregulation
3. Of interest is the fact that this administration has been extremely chaotic and has overturned global policies yet the market has not reacted to this instability in any obvious way.
 
Yes, housing and automotive are a large part of the economy, but how do you conclude automotive (other than Tesla) is in a bubble?



It's true that the U.S. has too many shopping malls. It's also true that Millennials don't spend time in malls the way older generations did, and retailers that can't or don't adapt and become "omni-channel" merchants or that don't offer a unique experience or merchandise will go bankrupt. But for strong merchants not concentrated in enclosed shopping malls (Best Buy, Costco, Walmart, Target, etc.) the "Amazon Effect" is over-hyped. It presents opportunity for patient investors.

Maybe cars was a misnomer. Trucks and SUVs. And they are over priced due to low gas prices helping to fuel (get it? Har har) demand. The cheapest truck you can buy now is, what, 38k? And SUVs are even worse. A Honda CRV AWD, which is just about the smallest, cheapest thing you can get, outside of a forester, is still 27k. A Ford Edge? 40s and up.
 
I don't know, and neither does anyone else. Anyone who claims to to be able to predict what the market is going to do in the future is lying because they're trying to sell you something.
 
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