Time to Sell the Stocks

I've been fairly successful in the stock market for the last 16 years. I divested about 6 months into George W Bush's tenure, missed the 9/11 drop and the 2008 crash. I reinvested about 6 months into Obama's presidency, and voila - up market. I don't think I'll wait 6 months with Trump. The stock market likes stability, and he's a loose cannon.

What is your prediction of the Market's performance for the next 4 years, starting Jan. 20th.

I have no idea in the next four years...too many unknowns. But if I had to choose...I would say more of the same - an upward market fuelled by high deficits and a VERY generous Fed.

But I do think that in the short term, the markets will not drop much - if at all - if Trump keeps his stimulus promises and more-or-less leaves the Fed alone.

The Fed has basically stated that it will do whatever it takes to not let the markets drop too far...so I do not see them going down much unless bonds force rates up or inflation does the same.

Unfortunately, the motto has been since 2009...'You can't fight the Fed'.

They are loaded with doves and I do not see any let up in their current ways...so I expect markets to either stay stable or rise over the next 12 months or so (barring something unforeseen).


Long term, I see major crashes down the road (as I think the Fed are stocked with macroeconomic ignoramuses)...but not as long as the Fed is loaded with doves AND has low inflation to allow them to go nuts with stimulus and ultra low interest rates (outside of token rises to save face). But I have no idea when that will be.

Media_Truth said:

I've been fairly successful in the stock market for the last 16 years. I divested about 6 months into George W Bush's tenure, missed the 9/11 drop and the 2008 crash. I reinvested about 6 months into Obama's presidency, and voila - up market. I don't think I'll wait 6 months with Trump. The stock market likes stability, and he's a loose cannon.

What is your prediction of the Market's performance for the next 4 years, starting Jan. 20th.

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I think you might as well be guided by the performance of the Boston Bruins. Or the fur on the caterpillars. Unless you see the President as a kind of orchestra conductor to the economy- in that case, as you were.

Media_Truth said:

I've been fairly successful in the stock market for the last 16 years. I divested about 6 months into George W Bush's tenure, missed the 9/11 drop and the 2008 crash. I reinvested about 6 months into Obama's presidency, and voila - up market. I don't think I'll wait 6 months with Trump. The stock market likes stability, and he's a loose cannon.

What is your prediction of the Market's performance for the next 4 years, starting Jan. 20th.

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There is a lot of exuberance in the market and the Fed seems to want to reduce stimulus activities an increase rates.
Having said that, I tend to think it is hard to call the market turning around. I was wrong for two years in the case of the dot.com bubble.

Grand Mal said:

I think you might as well be guided by the performance of the Boston Bruins. Or the fur on the caterpillars. Unless you see the President as a kind of orchestra conductor to the economy- in that case, as you were.

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When it comes to stocks, unless you're a billionaire in "the know", I think there is always a lot of guesswork. Call it a hunch, or whatever, but it guided me properly.

Media_Truth said:

I've been fairly successful in the stock market for the last 16 years. I divested about 6 months into George W Bush's tenure, missed the 9/11 drop and the 2008 crash. I reinvested about 6 months into Obama's presidency, and voila - up market. I don't think I'll wait 6 months with Trump. The stock market likes stability, and he's a loose cannon.

What is your prediction of the Market's performance for the next 4 years, starting Jan. 20th.

Click to expand...

this
a good time to hoard USD

Media_Truth said:

I've been fairly successful in the stock market for the last 16 years. I divested about 6 months into George W Bush's tenure, missed the 9/11 drop and the 2008 crash. I reinvested about 6 months into Obama's presidency, and voila - up market. I don't think I'll wait 6 months with Trump. The stock market likes stability, and he's a loose cannon.

What is your prediction of the Market's performance for the next 4 years, starting Jan. 20th.

Click to expand...

Didn't vote because I didn't see an option of being in the same place after 4 years. My personal opinion is that we are in for some rough times over the next couple of years, after which it will rise. It will either be a wash or up slightly over the next four years. Bottom line, I would wait for the crash and get back in about 1 1/2 to two years. That way I would vote that after a two year period that the next two year period would be up.

Grand Mal said:

I think you might as well be guided by the performance of the Boston Bruins. Or the fur on the caterpillars. Unless you see the President as a kind of orchestra conductor to the economy- in that case, as you were.

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My investments are in for the long term, I'm in two things, mutual funds and municipal bonds. I'm just going to leave them alone, the data out there shows the people who get hurt the worst in market crashes are the speculators. Those who leave their money in and ride out the crises almost always win in the end

Media_Truth said:

I've been fairly successful in the stock market for the last 16 years. I divested about 6 months into George W Bush's tenure, missed the 9/11 drop and the 2008 crash. I reinvested about 6 months into Obama's presidency, and voila - up market. I don't think I'll wait 6 months with Trump. The stock market likes stability, and he's a loose cannon.

What is your prediction of the Market's performance for the next 4 years, starting Jan. 20th.

Click to expand...

If Trump goes ahead with stimulus/infrastructure spending, doesn't engage in trade wars (merely renegotiating trade agreements I don't see as being problematic unless those discussions fall through), and generally is kept in line by more moderate Republicans, the stock market is going to do pretty well, barring some kind of black swan event or financial sector meltdown (Wall Street is still overleveraged [I will note that bank leverage ratios are significantly better than they have been lately] and woefully underregulated and I don't see this situation improving under complete Republican control at the Federal level).

Whether or not that happens though is definitely uncertain.

It's going to go up. Nobody ever lost money investing in the market over the long term. It might have hiccups but it always goes up.

Cephus said:

It's going to go up. Nobody ever lost money investing in the market over the long term. It might have hiccups but it always goes up.

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Next 4 years is definitely different from the next 10 or 20 after which time it will almost certainly be higher; if not we've probably had a rousing game of global thermonuclear warfare or are otherwise in serious trouble.

Cephus said:

It's going to go up. Nobody ever lost money investing in the market over the long term. It might have hiccups but it always goes up.

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That was one mighty big hiccup in 2008. Enron and other corruption scandals, GM bankruptcy, and then the housing bubble crisis - wow. Good job by somebody (or people), recovering from this in 2009.

Media_Truth said:

That was one mighty big hiccup in 2008. Enron and other corruption scandals, GM bankruptcy, and then the housing bubble crisis - wow. Good job by somebody (or people), recovering from this in 2009.

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Anyone who didn't see that stuff coming and react to it was an idiot. Being in the market doesn't mean being blind to obvious reality. But the fact remains that the Dow before the crash was around 14k and today it's over 21k. That's an increase over the long run.

Media_Truth said:

I've been fairly successful in the stock market for the last 16 years. I divested about 6 months into George W Bush's tenure, missed the 9/11 drop and the 2008 crash. I reinvested about 6 months into Obama's presidency, and voila - up market. I don't think I'll wait 6 months with Trump. The stock market likes stability, and he's a loose cannon.

What is your prediction of the Market's performance for the next 4 years, starting Jan. 20th.

Click to expand...

I like Warren Buffet's philosophy... buy great companies at a fair price, not fair companies at a great price.

That way you don't have to guess what markets will do... because most of the time people are wrong.

Proof? Look at the mountains lost during the last bubble to crash.

Also... look at investing as if you've been given 10 punches on a card for your lifetime. Each punch on the card represents an investment. That way you're likely to make wise choices.

I also like... Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

zimmer said:

I like Warren Buffet's philosophy... buy great companies at a fair price, not fair companies at a great price.

That way you don't have to guess what markets will do... because most of the time people are wrong.

Proof? Look at the mountains lost during the last bubble to crash.

Also... look at investing as if you've been given 10 punches on a card for your lifetime. Each punch on the card represents an investment. That way you're likely to make wise choices.

I also like... Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Click to expand...

Yeah, I moved my 401K investments into bond funds in about June of 2000, only because I didn't like the feel of the market. Can't explain it. I bought back into the market around June in 2009, but not completely. It may have been better to invest more at the latter time, but I have a good retirement nest-egg, and didn't want to jeopardize that.