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Does Trump have a realistic path to victory?

Does Trump have a realistic path to victory?


  • Total voters
    4
What could happen? Within reason of course.

I have nothing to offer aside from what everybody else can imagine: a ridiculously bad debate performance on the part of Clinton tonight.
 
I would say no, not without some sort of external event that truly shakes up the race. Something like a huge leaked email bombshell.

If the leaked e-mail bombshells that have already been published won't do it, the media has the ability to tamp down anything and make it look unimportant. And the apathy of the left to deny such importance is overwhelming.

But the path is whether enough people demonstrate common sense and do the right thing when they are actually in the voting booth and marking that ballot. I would like to think we have enough people with the love of country, the appreciation for our liberties and rule of law, and belief in American exceptionalism for good who will do that. If not, Hillary will be President come January.
 
Trump may likely cause less republicans to go out and vote on Election Day with his talk of "rigged elections.

Also people seem to be underestimating the get out to vote effort on the part of democrats.
 
What could happen? Within reason of course.

a video of hillary personally clubbing baby seals with a wide grin of delight might do it ... or something equally heinous
 
Looking at the electoral map and polling if the election were held today it would be over. (and people are already filling out ballots) However there is another debate tonight, and 13 days of campaigning and smearing. Do you think there is any chance things could change?

I really doubt it. Trump would have to blow Hillary away tonight and then take into consideration the number of people who already voted. I think the dye is cast unless something happens, a totally unforeseen major event. Trump's unfavorable rating, those who dislike him is back above 60% today while Hillary's has fallen down to 53%

RealClearPolitics - Clinton & Trump: Favorability Ratings

Folks tend not to vote for those candidates they dislike. Another reason is Trump was at 38% of the total electorate back on 1 June, he didn't break 40% until 25 July right after the GOP convention and immediately dropped back below 40% two days later. Trump once again was able to break 40% on the 15th of September which he hovered just above and just below until 9 Oct where he became a fixture below 40% again currently at 39%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

The reason I cited the above is Trump has failed to expand his base. He has failed to attract new voters to his so called Trump Train. He is basically right where he was at way back on 1 June. No improvement. In contrast Hillary has climbed from 41 to just above 45. Not great to be sure, but an improvement. With Johnson and Stein garnering around 10% of the total vote, 45% puts Hillary right where she needs to be to win it all. Once someone has made up their mind whom they will vote for, it is very hard to get them to change. Another factor is Clinton's lead is 6 points and only 6% of the remaining voters who haven't made up their mind whom to vote for are undecided. I can't see Trump getting 100% of the remaining undecideds.

The only thing that can save Trump is like I said, a totally unexpected major event or happening. That event or happening would have to play right into Trump's hand and would have to be very significant. What type of event, who the heck knows? It is my opinion way too many people dislike Trump for his persona for him to attract more than another point or two of the total vote. He is viewed as a very unsavory character more attuned to a TV reality show host than the highest office of the land.
 
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Trump may likely cause less republicans to go out and vote on Election Day with his talk of "rigged elections.

Also people seem to be underestimating the get out to vote effort on the part of democrats.

Trump still doesn't have a ground game. He is relying on the Republican Party infrastructure to do that for him. The same infrastructure he denounced, denigrated and made an enemy of with all his personal negative attacks. Good luck with that.
 
I said 10% chance of winning the other day, but that is on the high end. There would need to be a massive turn up at the polls of the estimated 30 million Americans who have had their lives massively degraded by the global elite, many of whom I suspect have long been tuned out of politics because they know that whom ever is ever running things they always get ****ed, so why bother. Plus till Trump came along not a single person in power ever acted like they ever heard of the problems that this estimated 30 million deal with on a daily basis.
 
I would imagine she isn't going to say much tonight and is just going to stick to safe answers.

Well, I hate to say it, but that's the thing that would set her apart in a positive way from Trump. Clinton's primary selling point while sharing the stage with him is to appear calm and rational. I.E. not be the stark raving lunatic. As long as she's unflappable then she's manifesting the opposite of what it is about Trump that terrifies the world.
 
If you say yes, say the path. If you say no, say why not.

Got distracted and then it wouldn't let me add the poll and then it apparently posted. Mod move this somewhere appropriate without a poll please. Sorry.

No, the electoral college is stacked against conservative republicans, in the first place.

Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever? - The Daily Beast
The Democrats have a lock on the White House - MarketWatch

This is something they know about and commissioned a study to address...

GOP.com: Growth and Opportunity Project

They knew they needed minority votes to win, yet nominated Trump who proceeded to piss them off.

Bad Bet: Why Republicans Can’t Win With Whites Alone
How Republicans Should Address Their Shrinking Voter Base - 2016 Election
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-latino-gop-20150717-story.html

Hillary currently has sizeable leads in states that would give her at or better than 270

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Fivethityeight, which has nailed the each of the last three presidential elections say Hillary is as 86-14% favorite

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Trump has no path....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...trump-electoral-college-victory-non-existent/

He is toast...

toast1.jpg
 
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Well, I hate to say it, but that's the thing that would set her apart in a positive way from Trump. Clinton's primary selling point while sharing the stage with him is to appear calm and rational. I.E. not be the stark raving lunatic. As long as she's unflappable then she's manifesting the opposite of what it is about Trump that terrifies the world.

I have noticed too that since the last debate she hasn't said much.

And her speaking won't help her. It could only hurt her. So it makes sense. And the more Donald talks the more he hurts himself.
 
I have noticed too that since the last debate she hasn't said much.

And her speaking won't help her. It could only hurt her. So it makes sense. And the more Donald talks the more he hurts himself.

That seems to be true on any level. During the last debate he lowered his voice, calmed down and rambled noticeably less than in his first debate performance. The result....was a calm lunatic. You know what's more deeply unsettling than a loud and rambling lunatic? A calm and deliberate one. Listening to him talk was like wearing a blanket made out of spiders.
 
Oh, and WaPo is essentially a Hillary Clinton public relations firm. Not at all reliable with regard to the Hillary Clinton politician herself.
 
Does it annoy anyone when people call him The Donald?

So stupid.
 
If you say yes, say the path. If you say no, say why not.

Got distracted and then it wouldn't let me add the poll and then it apparently posted. Mod move this somewhere appropriate without a poll please. Sorry.

What if I don't want to say yes or no? I don't think it is possible for anyone to know at this point. Give it two weeks when the pollsters have to do some accurate polls.
 
IIRC, he's the one who coined and encouraged the nickname.

I don't care if The Jesus H. Christ annointed him The Donald, it's super annoying.
 
FTE also claimed that Donald Trump would never be the Republican nominee. :coffeepap

I understand. However, earning the Republican nomination is not a normal process (poorer polling and harder to gauge who, exactly, will show up), so I don't hold their inability to nail that one against them. The general election is much more normalized.... I would be shocked if they miss this one.
 
What if I don't want to say yes or no? I don't think it is possible for anyone to know at this point. Give it two weeks when the pollsters have to do some accurate polls.

If you don't want to say yes or no then don't say yes or no? What do you really think I am going to make you pick one? The poll is voluntary.
 
If you don't want to say yes or no then don't say yes or no? What do you really think I am going to make you pick one? The poll is voluntary.

I get it. I didn't specify that the question was rhetorical. I will try to be more specific next time.
 
If you say yes, say the path. If you say no, say why not.

Got distracted and then it wouldn't let me add the poll and then it apparently posted. Mod move this somewhere appropriate without a poll please. Sorry.

Added basic poll for you. Next time you can add one yourself if you wish by clicking on the Thread Tools drop down menu on the top right hand side of your OP. Option will be in there.
 
No. Clinton has too many electoral votes locked down, and too much of a lead in the battleground states.

Trump's only hope at this point is the release of some sort of seriously damning information about Clinton that would change a lot of people's minds at the last minute.
 
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