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Trump supporters current view of Trump's chances

Trump Supporters Current View of hi

  • Trump is currently ahead

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Trump is statistically tied with Clinton

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Trump is currently behind

    Votes: 3 25.0%

  • Trump is currently way behind

    Votes: 1 8.3%

  • Trump will win in November

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Clinton will narrowly win in November

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Clinton will win big

    Votes: 6 50.0%

  • I will accept the results of the election

    Votes: 4 33.3%

  • Clinton will win because the election is rigged...

    Votes: 4 33.3%
  • Total voters
    12
reinoe said:
I will accept the results of the elections but I also know the fix is in. Trump could have won but he had too many stupid self-inflicted wounds.
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NO the fix was in as soon as trump showed he was a nationalist like perot


the media made everyone scared of perot made him seem crazy as an outhouse rat

the problem is not trump.. the problem is the voters who are so easily brainwashed by the media


TRUMP is STILL winning the wise....STILL.... science tells us who the wise are as well as the higher incomes


trump wins the higher incomes by a good bit showing how he is losing college grads because the grads are the UNWISE with the less incomes and extra giant debt


nope there is ONLY 1 CAUSE if trump loses.... it is america's RECORD LOW IQ Voters
 
Hawkeye10 said:
The Truth coming out and the American people caring is what good looks like.

The closer we get to that the better.
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What if the truth is that the Russians didn't hack Hilary's server? And what if there isn't anything anythign incriminating in there?

It sounds to me like you there's a particular version of the truth that you wish to have happened.
 
Mycroft said:
It's obvious that Trump is not leading in the polls...especially since the polls are bogus.

As far as Trump winning? Let's just say that there will very likely be much gnashing of teeth by the left on Nov 9th.
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Delusional.:lamo
 
TurtleDude said:
Frank Luntz's focus group said otherwise.
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So did Breitbart. Of course they declared him the winner before the actual debate took place.
 
Mycroft said:
That's not how it works. Sure, they might end up calling more Democrats or Republicans than the other. Then they adjust their data to reflect some sort of notion of demographics.



Yes. And that's the problem. This time...unlike other times...they adjusted their results to give Democrat respondents a 9% advantage over Republican respondents.



Morris is irrelevant to this discussion, but yeah...one would think pollsters are concerned about accuracy except that this election they seem to have thrown that concern out the window...as Fox did here.



Absolutely...it is my choice. Just as other choose to believe these bogus polls. To each his own.
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Definition of a bogus poll: Any poll that shows Trump behind.
 
Wiggen said:
Definition of a bogus poll: Any poll that shows Trump behind.
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Famous last words from a liberal: "I prefer to keep my head stuck in a hole in the dirt."
 
Wiggen said:
So did Breitbart. Of course they declared him the winner before the actual debate took place.
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I watched Luntz's focus group's discussion. You apparently are trying to pretend something that didn't happen
 
Mycroft said:
I provided the link in post #30, but here it is: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/10/13/fox-news-poll-october-13-2016/

Yes, you are correct about what I'm taking issue with. The explanation, however, is simple. Fox wanted to produce a poll that gave Hillary a bump, so they increased the Dems polled and decreased the Republicans polled which gave Hillary a +9 advantage in people polled. It's no wonder she ended up with a +7 in the poll results.

And, the notion that "it's demographics", as some like to contend, is hogwash because just one week prior their numbers were almost equal between Dems and Republicans polled. It's a clear case of deliberately manipulating numbers to obtain their desired result. And they aren't the only ones to do this kind of thing. NBC, Reuters, CBS...just about ALL of them cook their polls to get the numbers they want. And, since this happens constantly, your "multiple polls over time" thing is useless. It's happening constantly over time. It also means the RCP Average is useless. It's a case of GIGO.

So my position of disregarding ALL polls until the final poll on Nov. 8th is the only honest, realistic position to take to avoid being taken advantage by the pollsters.


btw, I might add that the graphic does show multiple Fox polls over a number of years and never before...at least by the information in that graphic...have they manipulated their numbers to this degree.
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Once again polls don't just drop raw numbers into the who are they going to vote for they weight them based on what they expect the electorate to look like. You could have a poll with 60% republicans and, if weighted properly, could still show a big Hillary lead.
 
Crovax said:
Once again polls don't just drop raw numbers into the who are they going to vote for they weight them based on what they expect the electorate to look like. You could have a poll with 60% republicans and, if weighted properly, could still show a big Hillary lead.
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So...you contend that somehow Fox expected the electorate to look like Dems being +2 over the Republicans...and then, a week later, expecting the electorate to look like the Dems being +9 over the Republicans. Do I have that about right?

I'd like to see the data that justifies that.
 
Mycroft said:
So...you contend that somehow Fox expected the electorate to look like Dems being +2 over the Republicans...and then, a week later, expecting the electorate to look like the Dems being +9 over the Republicans. Do I have that about right?

I'd like to see the data that justifies that.
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That's not what they expect the electorate to look like that's just the raw data of who they contacted. They contact like 1000 people and it just happens to have more democrats in one sample than the other. Which gets fixed when they do the weighting. It's really not that hard to understand.
 
Crovax said:
That's not what they expect the electorate to look like that's just the raw data of who they contacted. They contact like 1000 people and it just happens to have more democrats in one sample than the other. Which gets fixed when they do the weighting. It's really not that hard to understand.
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Evidently, it is for some.
 
Crovax said:
That's not what they expect the electorate to look like that's just the raw data of who they contacted. They contact like 1000 people and it just happens to have more democrats in one sample than the other. Which gets fixed when they do the weighting. It's really not that hard to understand.
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So...you also contend that they did the same thing with the results of each individual question?

For example, they ask a question of the 1000 people...they get an answer that puts Hillary up by +7...and then they weight that result...but they don't tell you what the weighted result is? I don't think so.

Sorry, you are making **** up and trying to have it both ways. It won't work.
 
upsideguy said:
I was surprised to hear today that there are a great number of Trump supporters that believe he is currently leading in the polls. That seems contrary to everything I see, but I thought it might make an interesting discussion. What do you think are Trump's prospects to win in November?
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I don't know, but they've may have blown their load on TrumpTapes too soon.
It's more effective to drip, drip, than full blast.

A lot of Trump people just won't vacate him, because to them it's a revolution to evict the political class.
 
MrPeanut said:
I live in WV which is completely Trump's state at this point. The majority of people I speak to believe Trump will win, and if he doesn't it was rigged. In other words, they believe
what Trump himself tells them.
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These are the kind of people Trump loves--low info, gullible type individuals, not necessarily Ivy League class material.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
I don't know, but they've may have blown their load on TrumpTapes too soon.
It's more effective to drip, drip, than full blast.

A lot of Trump people just won't vacate him, because to them it's a revolution to evict the political class.
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But he now is part of the political class!
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
I don't know, but they've may have blown their load on TrumpTapes too soon.
It's more effective to drip, drip, than full blast.

A lot of Trump people just won't vacate him, because to them it's a revolution to evict the political class.
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The Trump people don't have to vacate him. There are not enough of them to get him elected. Trump was right, he could pretty much shoot someone on Park Ave and not lose a vote; or, as the case seems to be, can pretty much have a history of committing sexual assault and his people still stand by him.

But, these things have worked and will continue to work to deny the new votes he would need to win.
 
upsideguy said:
The Trump people don't have to vacate him. There are not enough of them to get him elected. Now he is pretty much denied the new votes he would need to win.
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I'm not going to be so hardened on what happens next.
We have about 3 more weeks and a lot left that could happen.
Depends on if the allegations stay or go and if the wikileaks take hold or not.
 
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