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Can Trump win?

Can Trump win?

  • Total voters
    61
Both candidates are widely unpopular. Either one could win but extremely doubtful Trump can.

With the last two Republican presidential losses there was never this much distaste for the candidate by own party leaders.

The biggest fear is his love affair with Putin. This is a huge worry.

Trump won't win and am hoping that Johnson takes it away from these two.
 
JANFU said:
With what I see from the Great White North, he has been sliding in EV for the past month or 2.
He had a slim path, Rust Belt and Florida and or Pennsylvania. Not sure if that slim path included Ohio.
As you can see from this link he is wither behind on almost even in many of the above mentioned States
I bolded and gave these to Trump.- he still loses
HRC V DT

Illinois 51 to 34
Indiana 41 to 48
Michigan 41 to 35
Ohio 43 to 42
Pennsylvania 47 to 41
Florida 43 to 42
Click to expand...

It's always been a tough slog for the candidate who offers tax deductions vs "free stuff". To get a tax deduction, you have to earn.

Latest Hillary ad: charging an "exit tax" for companies looking to leave. She isn't asking "Why do companies want to move?" she just says she wants to force them to stay. Good luck with that.
 
oh, hell yes he might
and that is a scary thought
and the alternative is almost as bad. almost

the debates. tRump may show up. but what is to keep him from using his minutes to demagogue rather than engage in debate of the presented topics. expect him to go rogue because there is no way he can prevail over hillary while adhering to a typical debate format

turnout on 11/08. tRump has devotees. look at the size of his rallies. then compare that to clinton's
tRump's people will show up at the polls come hell or high water. and this perception that he is going to lose will motivate them even more to cast their ballot
this belief that hillary has it won will work to her disadvantage ... ditto for the down ballots
those who might be inclined to vote for her could say "why wake up early, stand in line, arrive at work late" because she doesn't need my vote - it has already been decided that hillary will win
and those in the middle, the ones who actually determine election outcomes, they are not for hillary and may be against tRump. by why show up to vote against tRump with a hillary vote if it has been widely agreed that hillary will win

what gives hillary the edge in the national election is what allowed her to defeat Bernie. she has the minority vote. decidedly. IF they show up to vote. she has the female vote. how many women could actually vote against the first woman president. only those who hate hillary with a passion and those who love tRump so much they are willing to allow history to be made in a later election cycle. IF they show up despite the general sentiment that hillary's victory is a foregone conclusion
 
JANFU said:
Well we know which one is highly volatile. We know how he does with minorities, women and men with a college or higher education.
Trump has a tougher job than The Great Blondin

You may or may not have heard of him
History of Niagara Falls Daredevils - The Great Blondin
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He isn't the only one that has huge problems. Hillary's inconsistencies in her statements and the constant information seepage hurt her credibility. We have two piles of dung and we have to figure out which one will make us vomit the least.
 
Yes, of course he can win. He's opposing the second worst candidate in the history of Presidential elections.
 
Perotista said:
Trump could still win, but the odds are hugely against it. The last presidential candidate seven points down in the polls on the first week of August to come back and win was G.H.W. Bush or Bush the elder back in 1988. It hasn't been done since. Truman accomplish the feat back in 1948, the only other time it had been done.
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And there were 2 big reasons for Bush's comeback in 1988. One was he ran one of the very best campaigns ever. Trump is running possibly the worst campaign, certainly in my lifetime. The other was Michael Dukakis made constant mistakes. Hillary Clinton's campaign is way too smart to let her make too many mistakes. The email thing is an unforced error on her part, but other than that, she's made no mistakes. Trump needs her to do something like what Dukakis did. I don't see that happening.
 
tres borrachos said:
Yes, of course he can win.
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I promise you no team can win the Superbowl if the refs call every penalty on them while looking the other way on the other team. They must also make sure the camera's are pointed in a favorable direction. Right now the refs keep penalizing Trump while media keeps the cameras focused in a favorable direction for Hillary.

When the democrats boo Bernie for backing Hillary it did not signal division of the party yet when the republicans boo Cruz because he will not back Trump it is a signal of division of the party. To me is shows the republican voters are united behind Trump while the democrats are not. Yet the media tries to give the illusion of just the opposite. Clearly the fix is in if you closely.

I can provide lots of examples.

tres borrachos said:
He's opposing the second worst candidate in the history of Presidential elections.
Click to expand...

This is true. But even a bad team can win the big game if the refs are bought and paid for and the cameras stay focused on only one teams mistakes.
 
PIPEWRENCH said:
I promise you no team can win the Superbowl if the refs call every penalty on them while looking the other way on the other team. They must also make sure the camera's are pointed in a favorable direction. Right now the refs keep penalizing Trump while media keeps the cameras focused in a favorable direction for Hillary.

When the democrats boo Bernie for backing Hillary it did not signal division of the party yet when the republicans boo Cruz because he will not back Trump it is a signal of division of the party. To me is shows the republican voters are united behind Trump while the democrats are not. Yet the media tries to give the illusion of just the opposite. Clearly the fix is in if you closely.

I can provide lots of examples.



This is true. But even a bad team can win the big game if the refs are bought and paid for and the cameras stay focused on only one teams mistakes.
Click to expand...

sounds like the excuse of a losing team evoked before playing the upcoming game
 
TheGoverness said:
Sure he can win, if he trounces Hillary in the debates.
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Those "debates" will be pathetic unless Johnson and possibly Stein are invited. If it's just Hillary and Trump, there will be no debates. Just jabs and insults thrown at each other for the duration of the "debate". It will be pathetic.
 
TheGoverness said:
All Trump has to do is bring up a bunch of Hillary's baggage. If he does that on a consistent basis, he might actually do quite well in the debates.
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Exactly. That's not much of a "debate", it's just mudslinging. And she'll have plenty of ammo too. Given Trump's history of going ballistic at perceived insults, I wonder how he'll react to actual ones.
 
TheGoverness said:
Sure he can win, if he trounces Hillary in the debates.
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Even then - I highly doubt it but that might be his only chance barring photos released in October of Clinton with monkeys in compromising positions.

The reality is that when you are losing college educated women by thirty points - a group Romney narrowly won - and you are doing so horribly with almost any minority group - you have precious little room to craft a winning majority. Trump would have to take 70% of white males and that simply is NOT going to happen.

The reality of demographics is firmly set against him and I see little to change that.

If the constant daily drip of GOP defectors continues - and nothing like we both described is on the horizon - I see at least an eight point victory for Clinton with EC numbers similar to those of Obama.
 
TheGoverness said:
All Trump has to do is bring up a bunch of Hillary's baggage. If he does that on a consistent basis, he might actually do quite well in the debates.
Click to expand...

Your point would have merit if Clinton was a new face in the game (much like Trump) and there was lots of new dirt to dish on her. Problem for Trump is that there is not anything waiting out there that has not already been used.

I believe strongly that many of the Clinton voters really are not happy with her.... do not particularly like her .... would prefer somebody else like a Sanders or even Biden ..... but have weighed the binary choice and will go with Clinton.

Its like you have some medical problem and you go to the doctor and he tells you that surgery is suggested. He informs you that a part of your body is going to get cut open and maybe even removed. He tells you that they are going to put you out for three hours and there is risk in that. He tells you that you will be in the hospital for three days - bed ridden with all the indignity that accompanies that. He tells you that for four to eight weeks afterwards you will have pain and some level of discomfort and will probably have to take some strong drugs. He tells you that your sleep will be disrupted. And he tells you that you face a few months of rehab after the healing takes place.

But the alternative may be losing more than that part of the body - you could lose your life eventually if the condition worsens.

So you opt for the surgery and all he described even tough you are not happy with it.

I suspect that is the similar predicament voters find themselves in when they look at Trump as an egotistical, inexperienced, unprepared, uninformed, narcissistic demagogue who could well ruin America like no other President in memory.

How is Trump going to change that with a few good lines at a debate performance?
 
haymarket said:
How is Trump going to change that with a few good lines at a debate performance?
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It would depend on Hillary. I think if she crashed and burned, that it would really allow Trump to make up lost ground. Though I don't think she will really. This is her forte, this is her bread and butter, manipulating the public sphere of political life.

While it is possible for Trump to win if Hillary messes up large enough, I don't think it's very likely she will. And because of that, I don't think that Trump actually has a chance at winning.
 
Ikari said:
It would depend on Hillary. I think if she crashed and burned, that it would really allow Trump to make up lost ground. Though I don't think she will really. This is her forte, this is her bread and butter, manipulating the public sphere of political life.

While it is possible for Trump to win if Hillary messes up large enough, I don't think it's very likely she will. And because of that, I don't think that Trump actually has a chance at winning.
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I would agree with your conclusion.
 
TheGoverness said:
Sure he can win, if he trounces Hillary in the debates.
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LOL... thanks for your tongue-in-cheek response. Of course, the idea of a guy who has never been in government, has zero geopolitical experience, no advisors, too lazy to do his homework and no attention span actually even playing to a draw with someone of decades of major league geopolitical experience, who does surround herself with experts and is a good student, is absurd.

Hillary will clean Trump's clock in a debate....and this "race", which is probably already over, will be done.
 
upsideguy said:
LOL... thanks for your tongue-in-cheek response. Of course, the idea of a guy who has never been in government, has zero geopolitical experience, no advisors, too lazy to do his homework and no attention span actually even playing to a draw with someone of decades of major league geopolitical experience, who does surround herself with experts and is a good student, is absurd.

Hillary will clean Trump's clock in a debate....and this "race", which is probably already over, will be done.
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They keep on leaving the Trump camp.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/u...n-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

Ms. Collins revealed her decision in an opinion column for The Washington Post published Monday evening, saying that Mr. Trump’s proclivity for bullying and invective made it impossible for her to support him. She said she believed having Mr. Trump as president would make “an already perilous world” even more dangerous.

Ms. Collins is the most senior senator to split publicly with Mr. Trump, and her message of censure could send a message to other Republicans that it is safe to shun the party’s presidential nominee. She is one of the few moderate Republicans remaining in the Senate and one of only two from New England, along with Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, whom Mr. Trump, after some hesitancy, endorsed late last week.

Now in her fourth term, Ms. Collins also led the Senate committee that oversees homeland security, adding additional weight to her criticism of Mr. Trump, who has strained to convince middle-of-the-road voters that he is prepared to serve as the country’s commander in chief.
Click to expand...
 
PIPEWRENCH said:
I promise you no team can win the Superbowl if the refs call every penalty on them while looking the other way on the other team. They must also make sure the camera's are pointed in a favorable direction. Right now the refs keep penalizing Trump while media keeps the cameras focused in a favorable direction for Hillary.

When the democrats boo Bernie for backing Hillary it did not signal division of the party yet when the republicans boo Cruz because he will not back Trump it is a signal of division of the party. To me is shows the republican voters are united behind Trump while the democrats are not. Yet the media tries to give the illusion of just the opposite. Clearly the fix is in if you closely.

I can provide lots of examples.



This is true. But even a bad team can win the big game if the refs are bought and paid for and the cameras stay focused on only one teams mistakes.
Click to expand...

The media isn't putting stupid words into Trump's mouth. The media isn't controlling his Twitter account.
 
It is demographically impossible for Trump to win. In order to win he would have to win at least 40% of the Hispanic vote. He doesn't stand a chance in hell of doing that. Demographics are destiny. As long as the Republicans run candidates that court xenophobes, bigots, and racists, they will not win the presidency.
 
joG said:
The problem is, he can. His proposal to eliminate income taxes for those earning under $ 25.000 ($ 50.000) is quite a present to the main groups by number that Clinton wants to vote for her.
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It will take more than that.
 
Jul 31-Aug 4
Direction of the country

Is the country on the right track 31% say yes.

Is the country on the wrong track 63% say yes.

It seems that people think the country is going in the wrong direction and
that feeling should help Trump as he is the "outsider".
 
Common Sense 1 said:
Jul 31-Aug 4
Direction of the country

Is the country on the right track 31% say yes.

Is the country on the wrong track 63% say yes.

It seems that people think the country is going in the wrong direction and
that feeling should help Trump as he is the "outsider".
Click to expand...

The problem with looking at measures like that is that many people just feel that the "other side" is the one putting the country on the wrong track. Similarly to how Congress often has approval ratings in the single digits, yet people love their own congressman.
 
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