• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Will Greece default?

Will Greece default?


  • Total voters
    23

LeoVlaming

DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 25, 2015
Messages
1,279
Reaction score
357
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
This might not be the first time that this question is put here, but it seems to be finally coming to crunch time.

Simple question: Will Greece default on its international debt patments or not? This is seperate from the question whether Greece will leave the Euro.
 
Voted no because there is no "unsure" option. 300 million Euros on June 5th seems to be the key event, but we have had other key events come and go without a default then either.

We already know that Greece simply does not have the money to do this, but we also know they have been clever enough to negotiate their way out of (or at least real reductions in) their obligations without defaulting just yet. At this stage there seems to be strong interest from the EU and IMF to keep Greece despite German concerns.
 
Voted no because there is no "unsure" option. 300 million Euros on June 5th seems to be the key event, but we have had other key events come and go without a default then either.

We already know that Greece simply does not have the money to do this, but we also know they have been clever enough to negotiate their way out of (or at least real reductions in) their obligations without defaulting just yet. At this stage there seems to be strong interest from the EU and IMF to keep Greece despite German concerns.

I wouldn't agree that the Greeks have been "clever", quite the contrary. The negotiations under the current government have been extremely amateurish. It is true that so far the institutions have refrained from closing off all avenues, but this has only further weakened Greece's bargaining position as the money has been steadily draining away from their banks and economy. From what I see the institutions no longer believe a sustainable deal is possible and are just waiting for the right moment to pull the plug.
 
It seems an inevitability.
 
If they are smart they will.
 
I wouldn't agree that the Greeks have been "clever", quite the contrary. The negotiations under the current government have been extremely amateurish. It is true that so far the institutions have refrained from closing off all avenues, but this has only further weakened Greece's bargaining position as the money has been steadily draining away from their banks and economy. From what I see the institutions no longer believe a sustainable deal is possible and are just waiting for the right moment to pull the plug.

Sure they have, all things considered they should have defaulted a long way back. It appears the direction this is going all comes down to the interests in keeping Greece apart of the EU, until that support changes we can expect very awkward things from the EU and IMF related to Greek debt.

In principle I agree that there is only so much renegotiation of debt in exchange for fiscal policy that can occur, eventually Greece either has to stabilize else all there is left to see is a default.
 
If they are smart they will.

Actually, if the Greeks were Smart they would have defaulted years ago, right at the start. It would have been bad for them, but certainly not worse than it will be today. And in the meantime they could have started to rebuild their economy. Now they will default not at a time of their own choosing but at a time of their creditors' choosing.
 
Sure they have, all things considered they should have defaulted a long way back. It appears the direction this is going all comes down to the interests in keeping Greece apart of the EU, until that support changes we can expect very awkward things from the EU and IMF related to Greek debt.

In principle I agree that there is only so much renegotiation of debt in exchange for fiscal policy that can occur, eventually Greece either has to stabilize else all there is left to see is a default.

Greece can't stabilize within the Eurozone. They should have indeed defaulted long time ago. That would have been very painful for them and for many European banks. Now the European banking system has been insulated from the Greek problem and they will be the only ones to suffer.
 
Greece can't stabilize within the Eurozone. They should have indeed defaulted long time ago. That would have been very painful for them and for many European banks. Now the European banking system has been insulated from the Greek problem and they will be the only ones to suffer.

Well, they really have no one to blame but themselves for all of this.

To add insult to injury they elected some Socialist clown who's first order of Bussiness was to gin up some German war crime narrative.

It was Greece's attempt to scam their way out of paying their creditors and it was a exceptionally low life thing to do.
 
This Greece business has been one hell of a circus.

I mean, the goddamn Nazis were pulled into this.

Doesn't help they let some socialist clown take top spot and have fascist, far right morons parading about.

Either could happen.
 
My response concerns the payment that is due to the IMF on June 5. I don't expect Greece to default on that payment. It would have far too much to lose e.g., almost certain end of ECB support for its banking system, to default.
 
If they can't make the payment, someone will bail them out. I hope it doesn't have to be us.
 
If they can't make the payment, someone will bail them out. I hope it doesn't have to be us.

Correct. There's no way Greece defaults, that's all bluster and bravado.

In fact, I've bet heavily on the Euro, buying European stocks and currency which right now is selling at an insane bargain. Once Greece makes a deal with the EU and international confidence restored, the Euro will strengthen and I will make a killing.
 
This might not be the first time that this question is put here, but it seems to be finally coming to crunch time.

Simple question: Will Greece default on its international debt patments or not? This is seperate from the question whether Greece will leave the Euro.

Yes they will default.They basically elected a leader that said screw you to those they owe money to.This is the reason why don't loan other countries money,
 
Correct. There's no way Greece defaults, that's all bluster and bravado.

In fact, I've bet heavily on the Euro, buying European stocks and currency which right now is selling at an insane bargain. Once Greece makes a deal with the EU and international confidence restored, the Euro will strengthen and I will make a killing.

International confidence in what?

If you are talking about international confidence in Greece and the Greek economy, that will take decades - at least.
If you are talking abot the Euro, then I would argue that international confidence in the Euro will be heightened by a Greek default and exit.
 
They can't afford to pay what they owe, but I suspect that financial help will keep coming in different ways to prevent that looking like a default. I hadn't factored in the worry about increased Russian influence in Greece if it were cut loose from the Eurozone. If that's a worry taken seriously in the EU, then this will take precedence.

I suspect that Germany and other eurozone nations will force Greece to let them intervene more in its economic affairs to make the structural changes to the economy necessary for longer-term stability. The worry for me is that this will be a back door to greater political integration in the EU, as part of the "ever closer union" pipe-dream.
 
They can't afford to pay what they owe, but I suspect that financial help will keep coming in different ways to prevent that looking like a default. I hadn't factored in the worry about increased Russian influence in Greece if it were cut loose from the Eurozone. If that's a worry taken seriously in the EU, then this will take precedence.

I suspect that Germany and other eurozone nations will force Greece to let them intervene more in its economic affairs to make the structural changes to the economy necessary for longer-term stability. The worry for me is that this will be a back door to greater political integration in the EU, as part of the "ever closer union" pipe-dream.


Greece has run a positive structural balance for the better part of 18 months.
What are you talking about?
 
Well, they really have no one to blame but themselves for all of this.

To add insult to injury they elected some Socialist clown who's first order of Bussiness was to gin up some German war crime narrative.

It was Greece's attempt to scam their way out of paying their creditors and it was a exceptionally low life thing to do.


LOL @ calling anyone a clown when you have this "who's" on record.

they didn't invent any narrative; the truth is Germany has one of the largest debt defaults in history on their record.
 
Greece has run a positive structural balance for the better part of 18 months.
What are you talking about?

Excuse me, I am not sure of the exact meaning of "structural balance". Please explain. Are you disagreeing with anyone who says Greece will default or did I make a more specific point you disagree with?
 
Excuse me, I am not sure of the exact meaning of "structural balance". Please explain. Are you disagreeing with anyone who says Greece will default or did I make a more specific point you disagree with?

Government budget balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
scroll up here a bit
Greek government-debt crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


It is a measure of the non-cycle related nature of whether government spending is on or off budget.

Greece has had a positive structural balance for ... like 18 months. To be fair, they are estimated to have a small structural deficit the next 2 years, status quo.

My issue is with your "structural changes" BS. They HAVE made the changes necessarily. They could not have had a structural surplus had they not.
 
Government budget balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
scroll up here a bit
Greek government-debt crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


It is a measure of the non-cycle related nature of whether government spending is on or off budget.

Greece has had a positive structural balance for ... like 18 months. To be fair, they are estimated to have a small structural deficit the next 2 years, status quo.

My issue is with your "structural changes" BS. They HAVE made the changes necessarily. They could not have had a structural surplus had they not.
OK I get it. Then if they have made all the structural changes they can make and they still can't pay their debts, is there any hope for them? Surely if these structural changes had been implemented correctly and were sufficient, they would not be having repayment problems? Or is it the case that the changes have worked, revenue has been saved / has increased, but the Greek govt don't want to let go of the cash?
 
OK I get it. Then if they have made all the structural changes they can make and they still can't pay their debts, is there any hope for them? Surely if these structural changes had been implemented correctly and were sufficient, they would not be having repayment problems? Or is it the case that the changes have worked, revenue has been saved / has increased, but the Greek govt don't want to let go of the cash?

Now we're getting somewhere.

I would argue (admittedly, opinion), it is proof they should be allowed to renegotiate and delay the payment of their debt terms. If they are floating in a ~0 structural deficit (aka structural balance), they can--- in theory--- pay the debt off eventually {now that is a whole other can of worms if they SHOULD}
 
Now we're getting somewhere.

I would argue (admittedly, opinion), it is proof they should be allowed to renegotiate and delay the payment of their debt terms. If they are floating in a ~0 structural deficit (aka structural balance), they can--- in theory--- pay the debt off eventually {now that is a whole other can of worms if they SHOULD}
Ok. The other side of the coin would be that the IMF and ECB didn't assess the level of structural changes necessary to pay back the debts but would now find that difficult to admit. If so, Greece could exploit that mistake a little more than they are entitled to, in the light of domestic pressures.
 
Now we're getting somewhere.

I would argue (admittedly, opinion), it is proof they should be allowed to renegotiate and delay the payment of their debt terms. If they are floating in a ~0 structural deficit (aka structural balance), they can--- in theory--- pay the debt off eventually {now that is a whole other can of worms if they SHOULD}

That's just throwing good money after bad. The Greek economy has to be completely built up from scratch. Greece should default in an orderly way and leave the Euro (perhaps even the EU, but not the EEA).
 
Back
Top Bottom