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Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

Where does Hillary end the 2016 campaign?

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cpwill

cpwill

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My gut instinct is, No. News Stories that do the most damage are ones which confirm what the public already suspects about a candidate. Romney's "47%" remark was damaging not because it was necessarily untrue, but because it reinforced the narrative that he was an out-of-touch plutocrat that really didn't care about half the country. In the modern Presidential campaign, Define Your Opposition is one of the leading requirements, and few people are so easily Defined as Hillary. The loss of friendly media (NYTimes, WaPo, even MSNBC) is a brutal kick, as it makes it impossible to dismiss current stories involving influence-peddling as Right Wing Conspiracy nonsense. Voters rarely enough return a party to the White House for a third time, and Hillary's current (and future - and there will be future) problems involving the nexus of power and money will make that hurdle significantly higher. It would take a major meltdown on the Republican campaign for her to push past defending herself, successfully define and attack the opposition, and then present herself as the better option.


I also don't think she wins the primary. Democrats are willing to back Hillary as The Only Candidate, but I don't think they are as willing to back her as One Of Multiple Possible Candidates. It's not in the Democrat Party's instinct to run the Tired Old Worker Whose Turn It Is - that's a Republican Party tendency. The Democrat Party likes New and Fresh - Republicans spend their time looking for the next Reagan, Democrats for the next Kennedy. So, I think, the scandals give cover to Democrats who wish to jump ship from the Inevitable Hillary Train. O'Malley is still down in the polls, about where President Obama was at this point in the 2008 cycle - but he offers Democrats something to jump to that offers some level of experience, but also avoids the baggage of a Hillary campaign. For liberals, who prefer to think of themselves as sort of enlightened rebels (conservatives prefer to think of themselves as a sort of silent moral majority), jumping off the Hillary train will be an uplifting, freeing experience. Expect more stories like this and polls like this.



So - post your predictions :) Let's see who has political instinct here and who doesn't :D
 
cpwill said:
My gut instinct is, No. News Stories that do the most damage are ones which confirm what the public already suspects about a candidate. Romney's "47%" remark was damaging not because it was necessarily untrue, but because it reinforced the narrative that he was an out-of-touch plutocrat that really didn't care about half the country. In the modern Presidential campaign, Define Your Opposition is one of the leading requirements, and few people are so easily Defined as Hillary. The loss of friendly media (NYTimes, WaPo, even MSNBC) is a brutal kick, as it makes it impossible to dismiss current stories involving influence-peddling as Right Wing Conspiracy nonsense. Voters rarely enough return a party to the White House for a third time, and Hillary's current (and future - and there will be future) problems involving the nexus of power and money will make that hurdle significantly higher. It would take a major meltdown on the Republican campaign for her to push past defending herself, successfully define and attack the opposition, and then present herself as the better option.


I also don't think she wins the primary. Democrats are willing to back Hillary as The Only Candidate, but I don't think they are as willing to back her as One Of Multiple Possible Candidates. It's not in the Democrat Party's instinct to run the Tired Old Worker Whose Turn It Is - that's a Republican Party tendency. The Democrat Party likes New and Fresh - Republicans spend their time looking for the next Reagan, Democrats for the next Kennedy. So, I think, the scandals give cover to Democrats who wish to jump ship from the Inevitable Hillary Train. O'Malley is still down in the polls, about where President Obama was at this point in the 2008 cycle - but he offers Democrats something to jump to that offers some level of experience, but also avoids the baggage of a Hillary campaign. For liberals, who prefer to think of themselves as sort of enlightened rebels (conservatives prefer to think of themselves as a sort of silent moral majority), jumping off the Hillary train will be an uplifting, freeing experience. Expect more stories like this and polls like this.



So - post your predictions :) Let's see who has political instinct here and who doesn't :D
Click to expand...

Still very early days of course, but my bet would be that she will tough it out and use her massive amounts of campaign money to wage unrelenting warfare against any opponents within the Democratic Party. And she has two things going for her.
1. People have gotten used to the corruption and money-hunger surrounding the Clintons. It will take more than a scandal to derail her.
2. Who is the alternative for the Democrats? Bernie Sanders? (way outside the American mainstream) Joe Biden ? (who takes him seriously) Elizabeth Warren? (A populist firebrand and somebody who can energize one wing of the party, but frankly unelectable at a national level) O'Malley? (doesn't look impressive) ...
 
I'm honestly not sure. I voted "will lose the Primaries" but under the assumption that eventually someone may convince Warren to run.
 
OrphanSlug said:
I'm honestly not sure. I voted "will lose the Primaries" but under the assumption that eventually someone may convince Warren to run.
Click to expand...

Should Warren run I agree she might pose a threat to Clinton within the Democratic Party. But if Warren were to be the nominee her chances of winning the actual election would be zero.
 
It's too early too say.
 
cpwill said:
My gut instinct is, No. News Stories that do the most damage are ones which confirm what the public already suspects about a candidate. Romney's "47%" remark was damaging not because it was necessarily untrue, but because it reinforced the narrative that he was an out-of-touch plutocrat that really didn't care about half the country. In the modern Presidential campaign, Define Your Opposition is one of the leading requirements, and few people are so easily Defined as Hillary. The loss of friendly media (NYTimes, WaPo, even MSNBC) is a brutal kick, as it makes it impossible to dismiss current stories involving influence-peddling as Right Wing Conspiracy nonsense. Voters rarely enough return a party to the White House for a third time, and Hillary's current (and future - and there will be future) problems involving the nexus of power and money will make that hurdle significantly higher. It would take a major meltdown on the Republican campaign for her to push past defending herself, successfully define and attack the opposition, and then present herself as the better option.


I also don't think she wins the primary. Democrats are willing to back Hillary as The Only Candidate, but I don't think they are as willing to back her as One Of Multiple Possible Candidates. It's not in the Democrat Party's instinct to run the Tired Old Worker Whose Turn It Is - that's a Republican Party tendency. The Democrat Party likes New and Fresh - Republicans spend their time looking for the next Reagan, Democrats for the next Kennedy. So, I think, the scandals give cover to Democrats who wish to jump ship from the Inevitable Hillary Train. O'Malley is still down in the polls, about where President Obama was at this point in the 2008 cycle - but he offers Democrats something to jump to that offers some level of experience, but also avoids the baggage of a Hillary campaign. For liberals, who prefer to think of themselves as sort of enlightened rebels (conservatives prefer to think of themselves as a sort of silent moral majority), jumping off the Hillary train will be an uplifting, freeing experience. Expect more stories like this and polls like this.

So - post your predictions :) Let's see who has political instinct here and who doesn't :D
Click to expand...

If the Democrats want to win, they will certainly need to nominate someone like.... gee, I can't think of one that I would want to vote for. But the woman is really not voteable with the murky track record she and her Hubby produced. Even he should not have been elected after the Governorship scandals. But she has gone on collecting more baggage and does not have the glib Teflon grin nor any charisma.
 
joG said:
If the Democrats want to win, they will certainly need to nominate someone like.... gee, I can't think of one that I would want to vote for. But the woman is really not voteable with the murky track record she and her Hubby produced. Even he should not have been elected after the Governorship scandals. But she has gone on collecting more baggage and does not have the glib Teflon grin nor any charisma.
Click to expand...

Mornin Jog. :2wave: What about Webb?
 
LeoVlaming said:
Should Warren run I agree she might pose a threat to Clinton within the Democratic Party. But if Warren were to be the nominee her chances of winning the actual election would be zero.
Click to expand...

Perhaps so, depends on whom Republicans ultimately put up. The Independent vote is as much in play for Republicans as it is for Democrats.
 
Hillary will be defeated in the general election. There is no way that she doesn't win the Democrat nomination this time around. Democrats are blind zealots who couldn't care less about the character and integrity of their standard bearer. Their big tent is open to any crook with a checkbook and Hillary and Bill are the epitome of Democrat politics.

Thankfully, independents and conservatives will see that she and Bill never set foot in the White House again. Once you take out the trash, you don't invite it back in.
 
MMC said:
Mornin Jog. :2wave: What about Webb?
Click to expand...

Webb isn't ideologically suited to the modern Democrat Party. My money is still on O'Malley.
 
cpwill said:
Webb isn't ideologically suited to the modern Democrat Party. My money is still on O'Malley.
Click to expand...

He has to get into the game.....and if he can't attack Hillary now, he wont be much of threat to her later.
 
I think she will still be alive when the next President is inaugurated.
 
MMC said:
He has to get into the game.....and if he can't attack Hillary now, he wont be much of threat to her later.
Click to expand...

In aggressive bid to get noticed, O’Malley hits Clinton from the left

...At the dawn of her presidential campaign, Hillary Rodham Clinton finds herself outflanked on the left by a former Maryland governor with little national reputation but many of the populist political talents she lacks.

Martin O’Malley is using Clinton’s closely watched and long-anticipated 2016 launch to raise his profile ahead of his own likely entry into the race next month. He has seized on specific economic and social policy issues, including same-sex marriage and an international trade deal, in a bid to raise questions about Clinton’s liberal bona fides....​



That's exactly how he should play this. Be the Obama of 2016, (mind you, without the whole "first black president" thing), and hit Hillary from the left so that the Democrats have someone they want to vote for, as opposed to someone they feel that they should vote for.
 
joG said:
If the Democrats want to win, they will certainly need to nominate someone like.... gee, I can't think of one that I would want to vote for. But the woman is really not voteable with the murky track record she and her Hubby produced. Even he should not have been elected after the Governorship scandals. But she has gone on collecting more baggage and does not have the glib Teflon grin nor any charisma.
Click to expand...



Heya Jog. :2wave: Looks like she is adding more baggage to carry around.



The Proof of the Clintons' Wrongdoing
Her campaign and the media are misreading the scandals......



Hillary Clinton seized all emails pertaining to her job as Secretary of State and deleted an unknown number of messages from her private server. Her family charity accepted foreign and corporate donations from people doing business with the State Department – people who hoped to curry favor.

She violated government rules designed to protect against corruption and perceptions of corruption that erode the public's trust in government. She has not apologized. She has not made amends: She withholds the email server and continues to accept foreign donations. That's what this is about.....snip~

The Proof of the Clintons' Wrongdoing - NationalJournal.com
 
I think she will. Look at what Bill Clinton went through during his first election. I think that the GOP and the right in general is making a big bet concentrating on her like this. On one hand it could work real well in their favor but it's probably to early in the cycle to concentrate on stuff like this, then again they have the Benghazi stuff they are saving for the real election to try and destroy her. I think stuff that directly impacts peoples bottom lines or is insulting would be more damaging like the 47% remark, but what she is doing doesn't really play that much into the majority of Americans lives.
 
If I had to bet money I would begrudgingly place it on Hillary being the next POTUS. I dont think DP is representative of the country at whole.
 
cpwill said:
In aggressive bid to get noticed, O’Malley hits Clinton from the left

...At the dawn of her presidential campaign, Hillary Rodham Clinton finds herself outflanked on the left by a former Maryland governor with little national reputation but many of the populist political talents she lacks.

Martin O’Malley is using Clinton’s closely watched and long-anticipated 2016 launch to raise his profile ahead of his own likely entry into the race next month. He has seized on specific economic and social policy issues, including same-sex marriage and an international trade deal, in a bid to raise questions about Clinton’s liberal bona fides....​



That's exactly how he should play this. Be the Obama of 2016, (mind you, without the whole "first black president" thing), and hit Hillary from the left so that the Democrats have someone they want to vote for, as opposed to someone they feel that they should vote for.
Click to expand...

Wait I'm confused. I thought Hillary was the second coming of Lenin. How can she be hit from the left!?
 
In order for her not to be POTUS, somebody has yet to be found with a chance of beating her at the polls.
 
Manc Skipper said:
In order for her not to be POTUS, somebody has yet to be found with a chance of beating her at the polls.
Click to expand...

Mornin Skipper. :2wave: Well not really.....it takes people to come out and vote. If they don't do that and don't choose her. Then it doesn't really matter what the polls say.

Kind of like what happened to Romney.
 
Bump-ity Bump Bump.


Could it really be that Sanders, of all people, is going to become the replacement candidate? I assumed some kind of other semi-establishment-type who could be expected to present a win in the General.
 
CanadaJohn said:
Hillary will be defeated in the general election. There is no way that she doesn't win the Democrat nomination this time around. Democrats are blind zealots who couldn't care less about the character and integrity of their standard bearer. Their big tent is open to any crook with a checkbook and Hillary and Bill are the epitome of Democrat politics.

Thankfully, independents and conservatives will see that she and Bill never set foot in the White House again. Once you take out the trash, you don't invite it back in.
Click to expand...




I don't think she gets that far, This scandal, and her hubris is going to finally catch up with her. Karma for how she ****ed over those in benghazi,


She should be in jail.,
 
cpwill said:
Bump-ity Bump Bump.


Could it really be that Sanders, of all people, is going to become the replacement candidate? I assumed some kind of other semi-establishment-type who could be expected to present a win in the General.
Click to expand...



sanders vs trump


/facepalm
 
ReverendHellh0und said:
sanders vs trump

/facepalm
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It suddenly gives me the thought: what if there is a national campaign to turn the whole thing into a joke that gets out of hand... and we really do end up electing Mickey Mouse (or some other write-in candidate) as President?
 
cpwill said:
It suddenly gives me the thought: what if there is a national campaign to turn the whole thing into a joke that gets out of hand... and we really do end up electing Mickey Mouse (or some other write-in candidate) as President?
Click to expand...



Trump may be that "mickey mouse".... The American people are saying "if you want to run this country like clowns, we will elect one!"


Though honestly, how can he do worse? lol
 
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