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Who wins the senate?

Who wins the Senate next week?

  • Im a right leaning American, the Republicans win.

    Votes: 18 52.9%

  • Im a left leaning American, the Republicans win.

    Votes: 11 32.4%

  • Im not American, the Republicans win.

    Votes: 1 2.9%

  • Im a right leaning American, the Democrats win.

    Votes: 1 2.9%

  • Im a left leaning American, the Democrats win.

    Votes: 3 8.8%

  • Im not American, the Democrats win.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    34
vesper said:
Check out the Congressional Ballot polls at Real Clear Politics
RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages
The average for Republicans is still +3. This is huge this late in the game.
But also look at those who are polling and the left leaning pollsters are showing huge numbers in favor of Republicans and places like Fox are giving an advantage to Democrats +1.
At this point one has to wonder if these polls are designed to get the vote out oh say to the left to stop a Republican gain or in Fox's case to show the need for every able Republican to get out and vote with a 1+ in the margin. Real Clear Poliitics today finally with all their averages of polls officially gave the Republicans the lead in the races for Senate.
Click to expand...

Sometimes people try to read too much into what is there. Right, Left, in the Middle pollsters when looking at RCP and its averages do not mean much. It is the average that counts. Any polling firm can have a skewed poll and it happens more times than the polling firms will admit.

Then you also have polling firms that ask only one question, which party are you going to vote for in November and that is their total. Other polling firms ask you the same question but if you answer undecided, they will continue and ask which party are you leaning towards. Then they add up the two. Another polling firm may ask the first two questions and if you answer you are voting for a third party candidate, they may ask if he wasn't in the race, who would you then vote for.

All of this is listed inside the polls, but it take times to find.
 
US Conservative said:
The election is only a few days off and it will be close. Im mailing in my ballot tommorow.
LJS2012112901-map1.png


(barring recounts) Who wins the Senate next week?
Click to expand...

North Carolina is one of the seats currently held by a democrat that seems to be vulnerable. Do you know which other states are considered up for grabs?

I'll be voting for Thom Tillis (R) on Tuesday but I am pretty certain that Kay Hagan (D) will be keeping her seat. :( Thom Tillis has a reputation as a liberal Republican. There will be a lot of Republicans sitting this election out especially those who voted for Rand Paul's candidate, Greg Brannon, in the Republican Primary.

I'm not sure which other seats are vulnerable. I can't make a guess.
 
polgara said:
Greetings, Vesper. :2wave:

You may have a good point! I haven't seen this much interest in a midterm in a long time. I'm not including the 2010 midterms - I believe the outrage over the ACA was deliberately downplayed at that time, but people didn't care what the polls said, they voted how they felt! Even Obama called it a "shellacking" for the Dems!

It sounds like you had a great time tonight with your trick or treaters! Fun reading! :thumbs:
Click to expand...

Hi Pol. Have you seen the current polling over the ACA? The disapproval of it is as strong as ever. Many people are going through their "second" increase in premiums since then. I know I am. Mine just went up another 52 smackeroos. a month. Oh Joy. Yes there is a lot of interest on the "right" over this election. So to show congressional ballot ratings at +1 for Democrats by pollsters like Fox to me is clearly using a way to motiviate all Republicans to get out and vote. Put their differences aside, forgive the elites who sh*t on the conservatives and get a majority of Republicans in the Senate where a lot of good things supported bi-partisan in the House could be a reality with the current leader Senate Harry Reid removed from his position. Because ole Harry has been taking every piece of bi-partisan legislation passed by the House that could ultimately piss on some of the "special interests" donors of the Democratic party and has placed them in file thirteen. And you can't have that during an election year. And in doing so, has allowed the almighty Obama not to have to pull out his Veto pen during an a election year. Whether it has to do with the special interest of Environmentalists , where there are several bi-partisan pieces of legislation that would stop a number of feckless job killing regulations, or the disproval of Obamacare, or the dismantling or our military, or the incompetent handling of securing our borders, or the increase of violations of privacy under this administration, or feckless handling of Ebola, or the very nature of the civil liberties of people of faith being violated, there is bi-partisan members in the House to support these issues. But it goes nowhere with Harry at the realm in the Senate. I think folks are finally figuring it out the only way to keep a president like Obama in check is to have a legislative branch willing to oppose him allowing them to pass such bills, go to conference and force Obama to sign them or veto them that may very well hinder the next Democratic candidate for president.

And yes I had a great time passing out candy. Cheers!
 
Perotista said:
Sometimes people try to read too much into what is there. Right, Left, in the Middle pollsters when looking at RCP and its averages do not mean much. It is the average that counts. Any polling firm can have a skewed poll and it happens more times than the polling firms will admit.

Then you also have polling firms that ask only one question, which party are you going to vote for in November and that is their total. Other polling firms ask you the same question but if you answer undecided, they will continue and ask which party are you leaning towards. Then they add up the two. Another polling firm may ask the first two questions and if you answer you are voting for a third party candidate, they may ask if he wasn't in the race, who would you then vote for.

All of this is listed inside the polls, but it take times to find.
Click to expand...

I understand, but currently the average of all polls for congressional ballot is still up +3 for Republicans. That's huge.
 
vesper said:
Hi Pol. Have you seen the current polling over the ACA? The disapproval of it is as strong as ever. Many people are going through their "second" increase in premiums since then. I know I am. Mine just went up another 52 smackeroos. a month. Oh Joy. Yes there is a lot of interest on the "right" over this election. So to show congressional ballot ratings at +1 for Democrats by pollsters like Fox to me is clearly using a way to motiviate all Republicans to get out and vote. Put their differences aside, forgive the elites who sh*t on the conservatives and get a majority of Republicans in the Senate where a lot of good things supported bi-partisan in the House could be a reality with the current leader Senate Harry Reid removed from his position. Because ole Harry has been taking every piece of bi-partisan legislation passed by the House that could ultimately piss on some of the "special interests" donors of the Democratic party and has placed them in file thirteen. And you can't have that during an election year. And in doing so, has allowed the almighty Obama not to have to pull out his Veto pen during an a election year. Whether it has to do with the special interest of Environmentalists , where there are several bi-partisan pieces of legislation that would stop a number of feckless job killing regulations, or the disproval of Obamacare, or the dismantling or our military, or the incompetent handling of securing our borders, or the increase of violations of privacy under this administration, or feckless handling of Ebola, or the very nature of the civil liberties of people of faith being violated, there is bi-partisan members in the House to support these issues. But it goes nowhere with Harry at the realm in the Senate. I think folks are finally figuring it out the only way to keep a president like Obama in check is to have a legislative branch willing to oppose him allowing them to pass such bills, go to conference and force Obama to sign them or veto them that may very well hinder the next Democratic candidate for president.

And yes I had a great time passing out candy. Cheers!
Click to expand...

Excellent post! :thumbs: You covered everything I've been hearing! It will probably be explained as "Obama fatigue" because we voters are such a fickle bunch, you know - not smart enough to understand things. I've been called worse, so I don't much care. Cheers back at ya! :yes:
 
Is it odd that my first thought upon reading this title was "your mom?"

Yes.

Yes it is.
 
vasuderatorrent said:
North Carolina is one of the seats currently held by a democrat that seems to be vulnerable. Do you know which other states are considered up for grabs?

I'll be voting for Thom Tillis (R) on Tuesday but I am pretty certain that Kay Hagan (D) will be keeping her seat. :( Thom Tillis has a reputation as a liberal Republican. There will be a lot of Republicans sitting this election out especially those who voted for Rand Paul's candidate, Greg Brannon, in the Republican Primary.

I'm not sure which other seats are vulnerable. I can't make a guess.
Click to expand...

Several states are up for grabs, below is rcp's data, note that none are "leans dem"

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate
Leans Dem
Toss Up
AK: Begich (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open (R)
IA: Open (D)
KS: Roberts (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
NH: Shaheen (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
Leans GOP
AR: Pryor (D)
KY: McConnell (R)
Likely GOP
MS: Cochran (R)
SD: Open (D)
WV: Open (D)
Safe GOP Seats

I know how you feel about crappy choices/candidates. I got to pick between a wide-eyed anti-gun lib and a dem-light anti-gun republican in my state, I left that choice blank, Kashkari essentially told me not to vote for him and I obliged, but he's not going to win anyway.

To quote the line from the movie Chinatown-forget about it jake, its chinatown.

Nationally the news looks much better from my perspective. Listening to libs claim that somehow their loss this election is good for them long term-funny thing is the only thing they ever claim thats good for America is invariably voting dem. Yeah right.
 
vesper said:
Hi Pol. Have you seen the current polling over the ACA? The disapproval of it is as strong as ever. Many people are going through their "second" increase in premiums since then. I know I am. Mine just went up another 52 smackeroos. a month. Oh Joy. Yes there is a lot of interest on the "right" over this election. So to show congressional ballot ratings at +1 for Democrats by pollsters like Fox to me is clearly using a way to motiviate all Republicans to get out and vote. Put their differences aside, forgive the elites who sh*t on the conservatives and get a majority of Republicans in the Senate where a lot of good things supported bi-partisan in the House could be a reality with the current leader Senate Harry Reid removed from his position. Because ole Harry has been taking every piece of bi-partisan legislation passed by the House that could ultimately piss on some of the "special interests" donors of the Democratic party and has placed them in file thirteen. And you can't have that during an election year. And in doing so, has allowed the almighty Obama not to have to pull out his Veto pen during an a election year. Whether it has to do with the special interest of Environmentalists , where there are several bi-partisan pieces of legislation that would stop a number of feckless job killing regulations, or the disproval of Obamacare, or the dismantling or our military, or the incompetent handling of securing our borders, or the increase of violations of privacy under this administration, or feckless handling of Ebola, or the very nature of the civil liberties of people of faith being violated, there is bi-partisan members in the House to support these issues. But it goes nowhere with Harry at the realm in the Senate. I think folks are finally figuring it out the only way to keep a president like Obama in check is to have a legislative branch willing to oppose him allowing them to pass such bills, go to conference and force Obama to sign them or veto them that may very well hinder the next Democratic candidate for president.

And yes I had a great time passing out candy. Cheers!
Click to expand...

Thats what Im talkin bout!
 
vesper said:
I understand, but currently the average of all polls for congressional ballot is still up +3 for Republicans. That's huge.
Click to expand...

It still is fairly close. By comparison here are the national averages from 2006, 2010 and 2012

2012 generic Democrats 48% Republicans 46% Democrats picked up 8 House seats and 2 senate seats
2010 generic Democrats 41% Republicans 51% Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 senate seats
2006 generic Democrats 52% Republicans 44% Democrats picked up 33 House seats and 6 senate seats.
 
polgara said:
Excellent post! :thumbs: You covered everything I've been hearing! It will probably be explained as "Obama fatigue" because we voters are such a fickle bunch, you know - not smart enough to understand things. I've been called worse, so I don't much care. Cheers back at ya! :yes:
Click to expand...

Obama fatigue is a good word for it. The voters had Bush fatigue for his last two years. So much so I do not think it really mattered who the candidates were in 2008, the Democratic one was going to win. There are elections like this.

It is too early to tell if Obama fatigue will continue for his last two years. He still can turn it around. Time will tell.
 
Who wins next week?

Considering how pathetic both major parties are...not America, that is for sure.


And once again, another poll that does not allow for anything but left or right leaning Americans. Would it kill people to include an 'other' option?
 
Perotista said:
It still is fairly close. By comparison here are the national averages from 2006, 2010 and 2012

2012 generic Democrats 48% Republicans 46% Democrats picked up 8 House seats and 2 senate seats
2010 generic Democrats 41% Republicans 51% Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 senate seats
2006 generic Democrats 52% Republicans 44% Democrats picked up 33 House seats and 6 senate seats.
Click to expand...

Good morning Perotista.

I don't think it is even close this election cycle. Real Clear is really conservative about moving states to one side or the other and they already have the GOP gaining big. And today I read an article at Weekly Standard that Gillespie is closing the gap with Warner. My jaw dropped. One particular polling group has the gap at 4. The same poling group that were the only ones who predicted Eric Cantor was in trouble. When Gillespie entered the race he was down 29 against Warner. Now the state could very well be in play. Unbelievable. Also the desperation of the Democrats reeks with all the race baiting ads coming from Nunn, Landrieu, and others. And the unions in Illinois endorsed the Democrat but gave their money to the Libertarian candidate to siphon off votes from the Republican candidate is another example of the crap that is going on in places where the left shouldn't be struggling. Tuesday is going to be something to watch. I need to pick up some popcorn for the event oh and some....tiny bubbles in the wine....:)
 
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vesper said:
Good morning Perotista.

I don't think it is even close this election cycle. Real Clear is really conservative about moving states to one side or the other and they already have the GOP gaining big. And today I read an article at Weekly Standard that Gillespie is closing the gap with Warner. My jaw dropped. One particular polling group has the gap at 4. The same poling group that were the only ones who predicted Eric Cantor was in trouble. When Gillespie entered the race he was down 29 against Warner. Now the state could very well be in play. Unbelievable. Also the desperation of the Democrats reeks with all the race baiting ads coming from Nunn, Landrieu, and others. And the unions in Illinois endorsed the Democrat but gave their money to the Libertarian candidate to siphon off votes from the Republican candidate is another example of the crap that is going on in places where the left shouldn't be struggling. Tuesday is going to be something to watch. I need to pick up some popcorn for the event oh and some....tiny bubbles in the wine....:)
Click to expand...

Nothing like rose colored glasses. I was going to give you a rundown. But since I was scheduled to post my 1 November Senate update tomorrow, I decided to do so today. This is how I see things.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/blogs/perotista/1133-1-november-2014-u-s-senate-update-number-17.html
 
Perotista said:
Nothing like rose colored glasses. I was going to give you a rundown. But since I was scheduled to post my 1 November Senate update tomorrow, I decided to do so today. This is how I see things.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/blogs/perotista/1133-1-november-2014-u-s-senate-update-number-17.html
Click to expand...

Rose colored glasses? :lol: Not me. Thanks for sharing how you see things. While polls can tell a lot, there aren't enough to gauge some events that just happened in the week leading up to the election. Take KS where Roberts is struggling. One of the reasons is Roberts doesn't have the support of Conservatives. They wanted Dr. Milton Wolf in the primary. This week Dr. Wolf came out and endorsed Roberts on Mark Levin's show probably one of the most conservative radio shows. It got a good amount of coverage. He told the viewers it was important to vote for Roberts because it help to ensure the gavel is removed from Harry Reid's hand if for nothing else. Wolf pulls a lot of weight with conservative voters in KS. His endorsement can only help Roberts in getting conservatives to hold their nose and vote for him. Last night was the final debate between Sheehan and Brown. On the very same day of the debate a poll out of nowhere not consistent with any other had Sheehan up by 8. Really? Even with that poll averaged in she is up by 2. And then for the last two days Ms. Mary in Louisianna has gotten nothing but flack for playing the race and gender card calling her constituients and all the South racists and sexists. Not any polls out yet to show the damage of that idiotic move either.
 
vesper said:
Rose colored glasses? :lol: Not me. Thanks for sharing how you see things. While polls can tell a lot, there aren't enough to gauge some events that just happened in the week leading up to the election. Take KS where Roberts is struggling. One of the reasons is Roberts doesn't have the support of Conservatives. They wanted Dr. Milton Wolf in the primary. This week Dr. Wolf came out and endorsed Roberts on Mark Levin's show probably one of the most conservative radio shows. It got a good amount of coverage. He told the viewers it was important to vote for Roberts because it help to ensure the gavel is removed from Harry Reid's hand if for nothing else. Wolf pulls a lot of weight with conservative voters in KS. His endorsement can only help Roberts in getting conservatives to hold their nose and vote for him. Last night was the final debate between Sheehan and Brown. On the very same day of the debate a poll out of nowhere not consistent with any other had Sheehan up by 8. Really? Even with that poll averaged in she is up by 2. And then for the last two days Ms. Mary in Louisianna has gotten nothing but flack for playing the race and gender card calling her constituients and all the South racists and sexists. Not any polls out yet to show the damage of that idiotic move either.
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Yeah, things can change drastically over the last few days. As Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over till its over." Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Georgia, perhaps a couple more could swing differently from what is expected today. I have always expected Louisiana to go to a runoff, then Cassidy winning the runoff by around 10 points.

As an aside to all of this, if the GOP does take the senate and Orman decides to caucus with the Republicans, it would not surprise me one bit if King from Maine also decides to caucus with the Republicans instead of the Democrats. Everyone likes to be in the majority. If this comes to pass, then keep an eye on Joe Manchin from West Virginia. One of a very few of a dying breed left, a conservative Democrat.
 
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Perotista said:
Yeah, things can change drastically over the last few days. As Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over till its over." Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Georgia, perhaps a couple more could swing differently from what is expected today. I have always expected Louisiana to go to a runoff, then Cassidy winning the runoff by around 10 points.

As an aside to all of this, if the GOP does take the senate and Orman decides to caucus with the Republicans, it would not surprise me one bit if King from Maine also decides to caucus with the Republicans instead of the Democrats. Everyone likes to be in the majority. If this comes to pass, then keep an eye on Joe Manchin from West Virginia. One of a very few of a dying breed left, a conservative Democrat.
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It wouldn't surprise me to see Manchin switch parties before 2016. West Virginia is looking pretty red about now. I think we all know why. The coal industry has been devastated by Obama's EPA on steroids.
I just hit Drudge and they have a story developing. Seems the AP is claiming early voting is favoring Republicans by 10%. There is also another story where there seems to be some Democratic Governors in New England states finding themselves in competitive races. Man this is getting better by the hour.

News from The Associated Press
 
vesper said:
It wouldn't surprise me to see Manchin switch parties before 2016. West Virginia is looking pretty red about now. I think we all know why. The coal industry has been devastated by Obama's EPA on steroids.
I just hit Drudge and they have a story developing. Seems the AP is claiming early voting is favoring Republicans by 10%. There is also another story where there seems to be some Democratic Governors in New England states finding themselves in competitive races. Man this is getting better by the hour.

News from The Associated Press
Click to expand...

Our Democratic governor here in NH is in the fight for her life. So is our Democratic Senator who is fighting Scott Brown.
 
tres borrachos said:
Our Democratic governor here in NH is in the fight for her life. So is our Democratic Senator who is fighting Scott Brown.
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HI Tres! Yes I noticed that. I also read where those who hosted last night's debate apologized to Brown and there was a story that stated even the Huffo Puffo had to acknowledge repeating falsehoods about Brown. Do you know anything about that?
 
sawdust said:
If we are to believe the media, Republicans take the Senate. The media is untrustworthy however so who knows.
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The NY Times says the GOP has a 68% CHANCE of taking the Senate so they are saying it could go either way but it is more likely that the GOP wins. You can't say they lied if the Dems win either though.
 
vesper said:
HI Tres! Yes I noticed that. I also read where those who hosted last night's debate apologized to Brown and there was a story that stated even the Huffo Puffo had to acknowledge repeating falsehoods about Brown. Do you know anything about that?
Click to expand...

I was there Vesper, and holy ****, I almost choked when it happened!

I was with the Brown camp, and James Pindell who is our NH political guy on our ABC affiliate asked Brown about a particular county here in NH. Brown answered his question, talking about the tourism industry and skiing, and Pindell interrupted him and said "You're talking about the North Country" (which is what we call our uppermost counties) and Brown said "I'm talking about anything north of Concord" to which Pindell replied "Sullivan County is west of Concord". Yes it is....but it's also NORTH of Concord.

Pindell then went on to ask Shaheen the same question, and she tossed out 4 or 5 things about Sullivan County and the economics there.

Two things:

Pindell tried to make it look like Brown didn't know the geography of NH - and he failed.
It was obvious to people that it was a set up, given how quickly Shaheen mentioned some Sullivan County facts there is no way she would know off the top of her head.

Pindell had to apologize to Brown in the situation room after the debate, on his Twitter account, and all day long here in NH.

By the way, Brown SMOKED her last night (in spite of what Pindell did).

We all in the Brown camp were so ****ing mad when it happened. I was like "Pindell's an asshole!!!"
 
tres borrachos said:
I was there Vesper, and holy ****, I almost choked when it happened!

I was with the Brown camp, and James Pindell who is our NH political guy on our ABC affiliate asked Brown about a particular county here in NH. Brown answered his question, talking about the tourism industry and skiing, and Pindell interrupted him and said "You're talking about the North Country" (which is what we call our uppermost counties) and Brown said "I'm talking about anything north of Concord" to which Pindell replied "Sullivan County is west of Concord". Yes it is....but it's also NORTH of Concord.

Pindell then went on to ask Shaheen the same question, and she tossed out 4 or 5 things about Sullivan County and the economics there.

Two things:

Pindell tried to make it look like Brown didn't know the geography of NH - and he failed.
It was obvious to people that it was a set up, given how quickly Shaheen mentioned some Sullivan County facts there is no way she would know off the top of her head.

Pindell had to apologize to Brown in the situation room after the debate, on his Twitter account, and all day long here in NH.

By the way, Brown SMOKED her last night (in spite of what Pindell did).

We all in the Brown camp were so ****ing mad when it happened. I was like "Pindell's an asshole!!!"
Click to expand...
I had read where Brown had apprehensions leading up to this debate because of who was hosting it. Looks like Brown's intuition was point on.
 
vesper said:
I had read where Brown had apprehensions leading up to this debate because of who was hosting it. Looks like Brown's intuition was point on.
Click to expand...

It was obvious that they were trying to sabotage him and play into the hands of the nitwits using the "Carpetbagger" crap against him. It failed miserably. I got to shake Brown's hand last night. Nice firm handshake, and he's good looking fellow up close too.:mrgreen:

By the way, what was funny about the Carpetbagger thing is that Shaheen was so nervous that her Midwest accent was in overdrive, and Brown sounded like a New Englander. :lol:
 
tres borrachos said:
It was obvious that they were trying to sabotage him and play into the hands of the nitwits using the "Carpetbagger" crap against him. It failed miserably. I got to shake Brown's hand last night. Nice firm handshake, and he's good looking fellow up close too.:mrgreen:

By the way, what was funny about the Carpetbagger thing is that Shaheen was so nervous that her Midwest accent was in overdrive, and Brown sounded like a New Englander. :lol:
Click to expand...
:lol:
 
Always an excuse from GOPs when things don't go perfectly their way--who could have predicted this Palinesque whining ?
 
NIMBY said:
Always an excuse from GOPs when things don't go perfectly their way--who could have predicted this Palinesque whining ?
Click to expand...
Doesn't matter what happens - someone will always be whining...
 
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