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Well I'm certainly not going to be doing that math as I watch a train approaching, endangering all those people, now am I?
So it's kind of a non-point. The point is...I dont know the result in loss of human life...cant, no one can. As far as I know, it might be none. Stranger things have happened, as have 'miracles,' whether the result of physics or God.
Granted that flukes happen, but if you make major decisions in expectation of them, you'll be spending all your money on lottery tickets.