If the Ukrainians were to take up arms and fight...

DA60 said:

There is, IMO, practically zero chance that Putun would ever be so stupid as to attack the Ukraine. He is ruthless and cruel...not dumb.

What on Earth would Russia gain? They would immediately lose almost ALL their oil/gas revenues (which their economy depends on). A war would cost tons of money Russia cannot afford to lose (especially if their natural resources revenue stream is cut off). Ukraine is a mess, so far in debt they are begging the world for help. It makes zero sense.

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Alot of bar fights also make zero sense when looked at in retrospect. International politics (historical grudges, nationalistic testoserone, pride and over confidence etc) might not be that different.

A Russian move on Ukraine may not start with an out right attack. Rather, a very confident Russia could sponsor / encourage immediate seperatist "referendums" in the eastern cities. Then, Russian troops are sent into enforce the referendums. Unlike in Crimea, the Ukrainians fight back this time....

Or, a handful of angry Ukrainian nationalists attack Russians in Ukraine (especially those flying Russian flags). This triggers an escalating "he said, she said" rounds of violence etc, annd then an all out war.

Note to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc.: Round up all ethnic Russians and politely escort them to the border and repatriate them. It won't guarantee that Russia won't come after you eventually, but it will take away their biggest "reason" for doing so.

radcen said:

Just for the sake of conversation...

If the Ukrainians were to take up arms and fight, and it became a literal battle between the Ukrainians and the Russians, how would that affect your opinion regarding military involvement (by the US)?

Would you be willing to reconsider, or would you remain steadfast?

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If you want to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine, no one is stopping you, get on over there and get after it.

But don't try to drag the USA into your battle.

radcen said:

Just for the sake of conversation...

If the Ukrainians were to take up arms and fight, and it became a literal battle between the Ukrainians and the Russians, how would that affect your opinion regarding military involvement (by the US)?

Would you be willing to reconsider, or would you remain steadfast?

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Steadfast. Dispatch weapons as needed and put a strong NATO force behind the frontlines in Western Ukraine to mark the limit of an acceptable Russian advance. This is something that should be done now in an effort to ward off precisely this scenario rather than when the country is under fire.

radcen said:

Note to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc.: Round up all ethnic Russians and politely escort them to the border and repatriate them. It won't guarantee that Russia won't come after you eventually, but it will take away their biggest "reason" for doing so.

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Or give them an immediate pretext for invasion. Somehow ethnic expulsion seems like it would anger Moscow. If I'm Estonia I don't think I'm that confident that the United States would really go to war on my behalf if Russian troops crossed the border at Narva tomorrow. This is why troops should be forward deployed to NATO peripheral states--to create an immediate tripwire.