Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

Peter Grimm said:

How many in Ukraine support Russia though? I would hate to see civil war in Ukraine, that would be terrible.

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A minority!

DDD said:

Hence it should stay the F out!

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I meant... Russia is nowhere near despotic enough for the US to go intervening in a country on its border.

I'm not siding with Russia, I'm accepting priorities based on global context. It would be monumentally stupid for the US to go pissing off a mostly western (and powerful) nation regarding instability on its border.

Do I want to intervene in Syria? Yes. Do I want to nation build Iran? Yes. Do I want to interfere with Russia regarding instability on its border? No, I'm not stupid.

German guy said:

Yes, I'm worried about the situation for the reasons you state, although I cannot imagine WW3 will break out right now -- one side, most likely the West, will probably give in towards the other, lose face and reputation (which is a pretty big loss) in exchange for calming the situation for now.

However, if that happens, nobody can still ignore the fact that we're dealing with "Cold War 2.0". And what worries me most about that is that Germany or the EU countries in general are not at all prepared for such a confrontation and rely on US protection now more than ever. And my guess is that Americans these days are much less willing to die for Europeans than they used to be 30 years ago, or 60 years ago for that matter.

Germany has disarmed post-1990 and turned the few remaining parts of the army into an intervention army suited for places like Kosovo or Afghanistan, but is not at all prepared to do basic self-defense. Now Germany has some blame for that, but not exclusively, since this arrangement -- America protecting us, in exchange for massive influence on our policies -- has been mutually acceptable for a while. However, if the situation gets tough, I'd rather see my country being able to defend itself.

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I feel like there's an easy solution to all of this. Just split Ukraine into two countries. Hold votes, and any territory/state/province that wants to go with Russia can and the rest can go with the west.

Splitting a country is always better than war. I don't think we should force anyone to live together that doesn't want to.

German guy said:

Yes, I'm worried about the situation for the reasons you state, although I cannot imagine WW3 will break out right now -- one side, most likely the West, will probably give in towards the other, lose face and reputation (which is a pretty big loss) in exchange for calming the situation for now.

However, if that happens, nobody can still ignore the fact that we're dealing with "Cold War 2.0". And what worries me most about that is that Germany or the EU countries in general are not at all prepared for such a confrontation and rely on US protection now more than ever. And my guess is that Americans these days are much less willing to die for Europeans than they used to be 30 years ago, or 60 years ago for that matter.

Germany has disarmed post-1990 and turned the few remaining parts of the army into an intervention army suited for places like Kosovo or Afghanistan, but is not at all prepared to do basic self-defense. Now Germany has some blame for that, but not exclusively, since this arrangement -- America protecting us, in exchange for massive influence on our policies -- has been mutually acceptable for a while. However, if the situation gets tough, I'd rather see my country being able to defend itself.

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What's up German Guy, it's been a while.

I hope the West don't simply give in, that would have pretty bad consequences in shifting the balance back toward Russia. We worked so hard (Europe and America that is) to achieve the balance the way it is today. And nobody has benefitted more from that work than the Germans - you have reunited East and West, you've formed a European Union, your economy has blossomed and your country has really entered a new era.

It was only 25 years ago, though, that the Soviets had East Germany under their sphere of influence. 25 years is not that long, and many of those Russians are still alive. You have to assume that there are people in Russia who look west with one eye, hoping for a chance to regain what they used to have.

If we give in and let Russia just take Ukraine or do what they want, then that cloud of Russian influence drifts closer and closer to Germany's back door. If Russia wins in Ukraine, they will only get bolder.

I have no doubt that the United States will support Germany and every other NATO country, I just hope Obama and his team have the skill to diffuse the situation before it gets to that point without tilting the balance of power to the Russian side. I think it is possible, but, like I said earlier, this is the most important moment of Obama's presidency.

RabidAlpaca said:

I feel like there's an easy solution to all of this. Just split Ukraine into two countries. Hold votes, and any territory/state/province that wants to go with Russia can and the rest can go with the west.

Splitting a country is always better than war. I don't think we should force anyone to live together that doesn't want to.

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That can be sad for the country that's split though, see East/West Germany for example. Or North/South Korea.

Then again, it's happened successfully in the past, like Czechoslovakia.

RabidAlpaca said:

I feel like there's an easy solution to all of this. Just split Ukraine into two countries. Hold votes, and any territory/state/province that wants to go with Russia can and the rest can go with the west.

Splitting a country is always better than war. I don't think we should force anyone to live together that doesn't want to.

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Yes, I agree.

Who knows, maybe Russia is satisfied (for now) with keeping Crimea and protecting its major naval base there. Hopefully, that's really all there is for the moment. We'll see.

Peter Grimm said:

That can be sad for the country that's split though, see East/West Germany for example. Or North/South Korea.

Then again, it's happened successfully in the past, like Czechoslovakia.

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Well, in Ukraine, there is an ethnic divide between west and east, unlike in Germany of Korea, but much like in Czechoslovakia.

Peter Grimm said:

What's up German Guy, it's been a while.

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Hey, good to see you again! Had a few busy months, but now I'm back.

I have no doubt that the United States will support Germany and every other NATO country, I just hope Obama and his team have the skill to diffuse the situation before it gets to that point without tilting the balance of power to the Russian side. I think it is possible, but, like I said earlier, this is the most important moment of Obama's presidency.

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I hope you're right.

And when this is all done, we need to deal with Cuba once and for all. I'm sick of those mother****ers inviting ships this close to our borders.

Then again, that's probably exactly how Russia feels about Ukraine.

Peter Grimm said:

What's up German Guy, it's been a while.

I hope the West don't simply give in, that would have pretty bad consequences in shifting the balance back toward Russia. We worked so hard (Europe and America that is) to achieve the balance the way it is today. And nobody has benefitted more from that work than the Germans - you have reunited East and West, you've formed a European Union, your economy has blossomed and your country has really entered a new era.

It was only 25 years ago, though, that the Soviets had East Germany under their sphere of influence. 25 years is not that long, and many of those Russians are still alive. You have to assume that there are people in Russia who look west with one eye, hoping for a chance to regain what they used to have.

If we give in and let Russia just take Ukraine or do what they want, then that cloud of Russian influence drifts closer and closer to Germany's back door. If Russia wins in Ukraine, they will only get bolder.

I have no doubt that the United States will support Germany and every other NATO country, I just hope Obama and his team have the skill to diffuse the situation before it gets to that point without tilting the balance of power to the Russian side. I think it is possible, but, like I said earlier, this is the most important moment of Obama's presidency.

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It looks like we may see the EU under the lead of Germany split the county into East- and West Ukraine with the Russians taking Crimea.

Peter Grimm said:

That can be sad for the country that's split though, see East/West Germany for example. Or North/South Korea.

Then again, it's happened successfully in the past, like Czechoslovakia.

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Well it's hardly that pivotal of a decision. The pro-Russian side would simply form its own country and be part of the Russian economic block, and the pro-EU side would simply form its own country and be part of the EU economic block. It's nowhere near as severe as those two examples were.

RabidAlpaca said:

Well it's hardly that pivotal of a decision. The pro-Russian side would simply form its own country and be part of the Russian economic block, and the pro-EU side would simply form its own country and be part of the EU economic block. It's nowhere near as severe as those two examples were.

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Yes, but Russian wouldn't officially recognize west Ukraine and the West wouldn't officially recognize east Ukraine, and we'll have even more non-state states along the lines of Kosovo and South Ossetia.

Even in that case, the region would probably remain a powder keg, because I cannot imagine Ukrainians on either side giving up their claim on the other.

RabidAlpaca said:

Well it's hardly that pivotal of a decision. The pro-Russian side would simply form its own country and be part of the Russian economic block, and the pro-EU side would simply form its own country and be part of the EU economic block. It's nowhere near as severe as those two examples were.

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Yes, that could be a solution. The Ukrainians have to be in favor of it, though. The ousted president of Ukraine is sitting there in Russia saying how Ukraine must remain undivided, blah blah blah.

Splitting the country is certainly an option though

German guy said:

Well, in Ukraine, there is an ethnic divide between west and east, unlike in Germany of Korea, but much like in Czechoslovakia.

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It always looks different, when one has to make one's own decision. There is always a rationalization. That is an experience the Germans are beginning to make.

RabidAlpaca said:

I feel like there's an easy solution to all of this. Just split Ukraine into two countries. Hold votes, and any territory/state/province that wants to go with Russia can and the rest can go with the west.

Splitting a country is always better than war. I don't think we should force anyone to live together that doesn't want to.

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That's easier said than done.

Ukrainians are trying to regain and rebuild their identity that has been suppressed and destroyed during both the imperial periods of the Tsarist regime and especially more so under communism.
It's why you have these issues right now. Russians know who they are, more or less... certainly more so than any notion of what "ukrainian" is. That's why you have sayings from the russian community that "ukrainians are just russians in denial", or "ukrainians are just russians with a different accent" or things along that line. The notion of "ukrainian" has been so dismissed and repressed over the centuries that a lot of people don't care or know what that even is. And it's not like there isn't one. Ukrainians have had cultural icons over the centuries. They had poets, composers, writers that were performing their arts as ukrainians, not as russians.

So... ukraine is now a country and there are ethnic russians in it. There is no reason why they can't live together. The only reason why they can't, now, is that it's a very troublesome period that was sparked by president Yanukovych whom, he himself, 6 months ago was on a pro-EU stance... he wanted the FTA agreement, he wanted closer ties to the EU... heck, when I was in Ukraine 2 years ago, you had EU flags flying on the pillars alongside ukrainian flags. He switched 3-4 months ago after Putin made him an offer he couldn't refuse.

So... it's not about ethnicity or nationalism. It's about chaos and when there's chaos, when there's no direction, everything goes and the propaganda machine is spinning... and spinning... and people hold on to what they can. And for the russian speaking community in Ukraine, it's being Russian. Not for all... but certainly for a lot of those in Crimea.

Rainman05 said:

...when I was in Ukraine 2 years ago, you had EU flags flying on the pillars alongside ukrainian flags. He switched 3-4 months ago after Putin made him an offer he couldn't refuse.

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Haha Godfather reference?

Did he wake up with a horse's head in his bed?

Why should the U.S. care, it's 15 000 miles away?

WW3 will probably be a ME event.

German guy said:

Yes, but Russian wouldn't officially recognize west Ukraine and the West wouldn't officially recognize east Ukraine, and we'll have even more non-state states along the lines of Kosovo and South Ossetia.

Even in that case, the region would probably remain a powder keg, because I cannot imagine Ukrainians on either side giving up their claim on the other.

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Why shouldn't the Russians, Ukrainians and EU stand to what they had done? I cannot imagine they hadn't foreseen this development. I mean, it's about what happened in Georgia. And it isn't half bad in this case. At least it seems better than the Syrian solution.

I don't get it, people. Assad slaughters 100k and gasses the capital, and people don't want to get involved. A mostly western nation intervenes with an instability issue on its border and NOW people want to do something? That doesn't make any sense. WTF kind of priorities are those?

German guy said:

Well, in Ukraine, there is an ethnic divide between west and east, unlike in Germany of Korea, but much like in Czechoslovakia.

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This is a general reply to all the comments you posted.

I'm surprised you even contemplate this as a solution. i mean, I don't blame you... the thought of going up against Russia in any sort of conflict is very, very undesirable.

In the 1700s if I recall correctly, the Russian Empire took Crimea and kicked the Ottomans' asses while doing so. Crimea was mostly a tartar land back then, the final refuge of a dying form of government, a remnant of the hordes that inhabited the southern part of Russia after the 1300s. And yes, it was populated mostly by Russians afterwards who moved there -> Crimea was a strategic asset to the Tsarists because it gave them access to the black sea... a way to build up their navy for further wars with the ottomans -> lots of jobs in the shipbuilding industry. So people who say that Crimea should belong to Russia are not without a claim on it all... but if that were the case, why now? Why 24 years after the USSR fell are Ukraine got it's independence are they pushing for this? They could have taken it any point until now?

It's not because of "ethnicity" or nationalism or anything of the sorts, it's to salvage a strategic military area from what Russia perceives as a hostile territory... or rather, a territory that will uncontrollable if it falls under the EU influence, which it will. And I think it's rather ****ty of Putin to instigate ethnic tensions and promote cheap propaganda just to satisfy getting a military important area under his control. The ramifications to this kind of psychological, ethno-warfare are hard to quantify until after the dust settles.

If Ukraine loses Crimea, or other regions in the East, you will effectively state that something called "ukrainian" is just a sub-slavic group... something that exists only in the absence of Russian because Russian is the real deal and Ukrainian is like, the leftovers. You invalidate all that ukrainian intellectuals or people of culture have tried to reinvigorate over the past decades. This is why I cannot support a decision of splitting up Ukraine because it's more than just a territorial thing, it's a cultural identity thing.

ecofarm said:

I don't get it, people. Assad slaughters 100k and gasses the capital, and people don't want to get involved. A mostly western nation intervenes with an instability issue on its border and NOW people want to do something? That doesn't make any sense. WTF kind of priorities are those?

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It has nothing to do with the people of Syria or Ukraine, and everything to do with the longterm security of the people of Europe and thus the longterm well-being of the United States.

We've held on to a balance since the end of WW2 with the Soviets/Russians, and the eastern bloc states have always been the battleground. The further West the Russian influence goes, the less secure Europe is in the long run.

Peter Grimm said:

Haha Godfather reference?

Did he wake up with a horse's head in his bed?

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No, he took the carrot approach... 15bil of it. And under Yanukovych, 37bil of russian loans went "missing". So... it's a pretty big bribe.

ecofarm said:

I don't get it, people. Assad slaughters 100k and gasses the capital, and people don't want to get involved. A mostly western nation intervenes with an instability issue on its border and NOW people want to do something? That doesn't make any sense. WTF kind of priorities are those?

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Have you really not figured out yet that the west doesn't give a **** about the middle east?

Peter Grimm said:

Yes, that could be a solution. The Ukrainians have to be in favor of it, though. The ousted president of Ukraine is sitting there in Russia saying how Ukraine must remain undivided, blah blah blah.

Splitting the country is certainly an option though

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Indeed. On a side note, I die a little inside every time I see you wearing a Libertarian - Right lean.

Peter Grimm said:

Haha Godfather reference?

Did he wake up with a horse's head in his bed?

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You don't turn down a Putin offer lightly. And when he holds a billion dollars of your family treasure? Give the guy a break. He doesn't need a horse's head.

Rainman05 said:

... it's to salvage a strategic military area from what Russia perceives as a hostile territory... or rather, a territory that will uncontrollable if it falls under the EU influence, which it will. And I think it's rather ****ty of Putin to instigate ethnic tensions and promote cheap propaganda just to satisfy getting a military important area under his control. The ramifications to this kind of psychological, ethno-warfare are hard to quantify until after the dust settles.
.

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Both sides play that game.