• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

You worried?

  • Yes

    Votes: 40 49.4%
  • No

    Votes: 36 44.4%
  • I'm buying my marshmallows

    Votes: 5 6.2%

  • Total voters
    81

Peter Grimm

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Messages
10,348
Reaction score
2,426
Location
The anals of history
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive
I don't know why we're not talking more about the situation in Ukraine on this site.

A few days ago, I responded to one of the threads by wondering aloud whether Putin was going to put up with the West encroaching on a former Soviet satellite. I compared the situation to Georgia a few years ago, when the Russians went in. In fact, that was at an Olympics as well if I recall.

It turns out I was right, and I'm not happy to say that.

Anyway, I have learned to generally ignore the news, but after hearing the Russian military is now in Crimea I have sat up and taken notice.

If you watch Obama's press conference addressing the issue, he looks visibly shaken and maybe even scared. And he probably should be, this is the biggest moment in his presidency.

This is much more important than Obamacare, more important than Benghazi, any of that trivial stuff.

I'm going to put it bluntly. I'd say there's about a 15% chance that this situation causes World War 3. It's literally that serious.

What you have to do is look at it from Russia's perspective. If Ukraine goes westward, joins the EU, joins NATO.... all things the Russians fear.... then it's essentially Russia admitting defeat. It's Russia's sphere of influence shrinking for all the world to see.

That may not be a forgivable offense in the eyes of the Russian people. That might mean Putin's head on the chopping block, and you can bet your ass he sees it that way too.

Not only are the soldiers in Ukraine, a Russian spy ship just docked in Cuba 100 miles from Miami. The ship poses no harm, but it sends a message and I think that message is loud and clear and you don't need me to spell it out for you.

The fact that Russian soldiers are somewhat covertly in the Russian section of Crimea should tell you one thing: it's not a full-blown attack, the Russians are dipping their toes in the water to feel it out.

They're waiting. Waiting to see what Obama and the West do in response. Testing us.

Show weakness and the Russians will simply take Ukraine. That will have catastrophic consequences. We would never be able to turn a satellite country our way again, because they would know they aren't protected. It's no coincidence that the Ukrainians are asking the UK and the US for protection... and we must give it to them.

To fail to do so would strengthen Moscow and weaken Washington in a way we haven't seen since the 70's. The world does not need that. On the other hand, we must at all costs avoid backing Russia in to a corner they can't get out of, because if Putin must fight a war to maintain the status quo in terms of balance of power then I'm not so sure we can discount that possibility. We all know how catastrophic that could be for both sides.

So this should concern you. You should pay attention to this situation as it unfolds. It may all fizzle out and amount to nothing, let's hope it does, but it has the potential to change the world in ways we can't begin to comprehend.
 
It worries me just as a person who genuinely desires that the people of the Ukraine can find peace. It doesn't worry me in the sense of worrying about its direct impact on me personally.
 
It worries me just as a person who genuinely desires that the people of the Ukraine can find peace. It doesn't worry me in the sense of worrying about its direct impact on me personally.

we might have no choice. if it gets bad we will get involved
 
It's no coincidence that the Ukrainians are asking the UK and the US for protection... and we must give it to them.

As the biggest hawk on this site, I say: stay the **** out of Ukraine.
 
I worry for the people; I hate seeing the violence and I hope it stops.

Though, I'm not really worried the situation causing a security risk for the US.
 
I worry for the people; I hate seeing the violence and I hope it stops.

Though, I'm not really worried the situation causing a security risk for the US.

Hypothetically, if Kyiv falls (even in an symbolic way)... Beijing may see it as a chance to make it's moves on some of the unjust claims it made. Japanesse islands. Philipino national waters. South Korean national waters. All of those long-standing allies that the USA guarantees. So while you don't have to be worried about Moscow... you should be worried about beijing.
 
Why does everyone always **** themselves in fear when they're reminded that the global community isn't Heaven on earth?

Am I a sociopath, or do I simply realise that conflict per se isn't the same thing as a mushroom cloud?
 
I don't know why we're not talking more about the situation in Ukraine on this site.

A few days ago, I responded to one of the threads by wondering aloud whether Putin was going to put up with the West encroaching on a former Soviet satellite. I compared the situation to Georgia a few years ago, when the Russians went in. In fact, that was at an Olympics as well if I recall.

It turns out I was right, and I'm not happy to say that.

Anyway, I have learned to generally ignore the news, but after hearing the Russian military is now in Crimea I have sat up and taken notice.

If you watch Obama's press conference addressing the issue, he looks visibly shaken and maybe even scared. And he probably should be, this is the biggest moment in his presidency.

This is much more important than Obamacare, more important than Benghazi, any of that trivial stuff.

I'm going to put it bluntly. I'd say there's about a 15% chance that this situation causes World War 3. It's literally that serious.

What you have to do is look at it from Russia's perspective. If Ukraine goes westward, joins the EU, joins NATO.... all things the Russians fear.... then it's essentially Russia admitting defeat. It's Russia's sphere of influence shrinking for all the world to see.

That may not be a forgivable offense in the eyes of the Russian people. That might mean Putin's head on the chopping block, and you can bet your ass he sees it that way too.

Not only are the soldiers in Ukraine, a Russian spy ship just docked in Cuba 100 miles from Miami. The ship poses no harm, but it sends a message and I think that message is loud and clear and you don't need me to spell it out for you.

The fact that Russian soldiers are somewhat covertly in the Russian section of Crimea should tell you one thing: it's not a full-blown attack, the Russians are dipping their toes in the water to feel it out.

They're waiting. Waiting to see what Obama and the West do in response. Testing us.

Show weakness and the Russians will simply take Ukraine. That will have catastrophic consequences. We would never be able to turn a satellite country our way again, because they would know they aren't protected. It's no coincidence that the Ukrainians are asking the UK and the US for protection... and we must give it to them.

To fail to do so would strengthen Moscow and weaken Washington in a way we haven't seen since the 70's. The world does not need that. On the other hand, we must at all costs avoid backing Russia in to a corner they can't get out of, because if Putin must fight a war to maintain the status quo in terms of balance of power then I'm not so sure we can discount that possibility. We all know how catastrophic that could be for both sides.

So this should concern you. You should pay attention to this situation as it unfolds. It may all fizzle out and amount to nothing, let's hope it does, but it has the potential to change the world in ways we can't begin to comprehend.

Yes I see enough dander potential to keep an eye on it, while I fetch my marshmallows.
But the US should leave it to the Europeans to divide Ukraine into West and East Ukraine, if that is what they and the Russians want. But the last thing we need now is to watch the present Commander in Chief lead a Charge of the Light Brigade.
 
Russia has met his match in Ukraine. This is not Georgia. The freaking Russian bully cannot just occupy and treat lands that do not belong to them by force like it did in Georgia and none did much about it. This one has a fighting chance. This one can fight, is armed, and may only need some help while engaged.

Russia better stay the F out of this one because if they lose a war here countries currently within Russia may follow. They are oppressed from the bully system just as well and may ask to be really free too!

Now I know none wants neither to intervene nor to corner Russia out of fears of WW3. But Ukraine may no longer take being bullied from Russia neither! Perhaps intervention may come, but may do so when Ukraine and Russia start giving positive signals that they want us to intervene between them.
 
Hypothetically, if Kyiv falls (even in an symbolic way)... Beijing may see it as a chance to make it's moves on some of the unjust claims it made. Japanesse islands. Philipino national waters. South Korean national waters. All of those long-standing allies that the USA guarantees. So while you don't have to be worried about Moscow... you should be worried about beijing.

Yes, see my above post and how it may relate to Beijing also.
 
Yes I see enough dander potential to keep an eye on it, while I fetch my marshmallows.
But the US should leave it to the Europeans to divide Ukraine into West and East Ukraine, if that is what they and the Russians want. But the last thing we need now is to watch the present Commander in Chief lead a Charge of the Light Brigade.

Time may be less forgiving of personal qualities. Besides, it is the democrats that are more militarily engaging compared to Republicans when viewed from here. Republicans are good for diplomacy instead. That is how it worked around here anyway.
 
Ukraine is not an ally of the U.S. in anything near the same way that some of the Pacific Rim nations are. I can't see how Beijing would take any lessons away from us letting a Russian sphere nation be bullied by Russia. I disagree there is a significant security risk to the U.S. This is Europe's deal, and they ought to handle it.
 
Hypothetically, if Kyiv falls (even in an symbolic way)... Beijing may see it as a chance to make it's moves on some of the unjust claims it made. Japanesse islands. Philipino national waters. South Korean national waters. All of those long-standing allies that the USA guarantees. So while you don't have to be worried about Moscow... you should be worried about beijing.

Everything you say is true, but she should still absolutely be worried about Moscow. If USA and Russia went to war in Ukraine, Russia would win.
 
Why does everyone always **** themselves in fear when they're reminded that the global community isn't Heaven on earth?

Am I a sociopath, or do I simply realise that conflict per se isn't the same thing as a mushroom cloud?

If the thought of war between USA and Russia doesn't make you **** yourself, I don't know about sociopath.... but maybe your sense of realism is a bit out of whack.

Russia isn't Iraq or even Vietnam. It isn't even Japan or Germany. It would by far be the most brutal and difficult war in the history of this nation.
 
Ukraine is not an ally of the U.S. in anything near the same way that some of the Pacific Rim nations are. I can't see how Beijing would take any lessons away from us letting a Russian sphere nation be bullied by Russia. I disagree there is a significant security risk to the U.S. This is Europe's deal, and they ought to handle it.

If Russia can grab Ukraine, why not Kazakhstan? Why not Poland? Why not East Germany?

This is why Obama is in a pickle. He can't show weakness, but, on the other hand, nobody wants a catastrophic war either. This war would make Iraq look like patty cake.
 
Ukraine is engaging in a healthy form of rebellion that is currently spreading anywhere that unjust government rules. I support their people's right to freedom and self-determination.
 
The US and UK helped put the recently ousted Ukraine president in office. I've read that Putin was supportive of the Ukraine president and government. The news says the protestors in Ukraine are national fascists aka neo nazi's. The US and Russia still have a common enemy in these hooligan hitler wannabes, no?

Unrest and uprising in Ukraine could directly effect and spill over into a Russia. So why wouldn't Russia be pro-active instead of re-active and make it's presence known?
 
Russia has met his match in Ukraine. This is not Georgia. The freaking Russian bully cannot just occupy and treat lands that do not belong to them by force like it did in Georgia and none did much about it. This one has a fighting chance. This one can fight, is armed, and may only need some help while engaged.

Russia better stay the F out of this one because if they lose a war here countries currently within Russia may follow. They are oppressed from the bully system just as well and may ask to be really free too!

Now I know none wants neither to intervene nor to corner Russia out of fears of WW3. But Ukraine may no longer take being bullied from Russia neither! Perhaps intervention may come, but may do so when Ukraine and Russia start giving positive signals that they want us to intervene between them.


How many in Ukraine support Russia though? I would hate to see civil war in Ukraine, that would be terrible.
 
Everything you say is true, but she should still absolutely be worried about Moscow. If USA and Russia went to war in Ukraine, Russia would win.

Even if the US/EU stayed on the sidelines I'm not convinced Russia wouldn't be entering a military quagmire a la Afghanistan. The Ukraine military is substantial and Crimea has lots of anti-Russian Tartars to destabilise a long-term occupation of the Crimean peninsula. With just a Crimean occupation, Russia would have to deal with terrorism and a developed world military. Anything more than that and they're ****ed.
 
Even if the US/EU stayed on the sidelines I'm not convinced Russia wouldn't be entering a military quagmire a la Afghanistan. The Ukraine military is substantial and Crimea has lots of anti-Russian Tartars to destabilise a long-term occupation of the Crimean peninsula. With just a Crimean occupation, Russia would have to deal with terrorism and a developed world military. Anything more than that and they're ****ed.

If the situation devolves in to a civil war within Ukraine where the West supports one side and Russia supports the other side, now you have a warzone right in Europe's backyard and I promise you, this war would not end quickly.

It would be tragic, and hopefully some good diplomacy can avoid such a fate.
 
If Russia can grab Ukraine, why not Kazakhstan? Why not Poland? Why not East Germany?

This is why Obama is in a pickle. He can't show weakness, but, on the other hand, nobody wants a catastrophic war either. This war would make Iraq look like patty cake.

Yes, I'm worried about the situation for the reasons you state, although I cannot imagine WW3 will break out right now -- one side, most likely the West, will probably give in towards the other, lose face and reputation (which is a pretty big loss) in exchange for calming the situation for now.

However, if that happens, nobody can still ignore the fact that we're dealing with "Cold War 2.0". And what worries me most about that is that Germany or the EU countries in general are not at all prepared for such a confrontation and rely on US protection now more than ever. And my guess is that Americans these days are much less willing to die for Europeans than they used to be 30 years ago, or 60 years ago for that matter.

Germany has disarmed post-1990 and turned the few remaining parts of the army into an intervention army suited for places like Kosovo or Afghanistan, but is not at all prepared to do basic self-defense. Now Germany has some blame for that, but not exclusively, since this arrangement -- America protecting us, in exchange for massive influence on our policies -- has been mutually acceptable for a while. However, if the situation gets tough, I'd rather see my country being able to defend itself.
 
Russia is nowhere near despotic enough to go intervening in a country on its border. End of story.
 
The US and UK helped put the recently ousted Ukraine president in office. I've read that Putin was supportive of the Ukraine president and government. The news says the protestors in Ukraine are national fascists aka neo nazi's. The US and Russia still have a common enemy in these hooligan hitler wannabes, no?

Unrest and uprising in Ukraine could directly effect and spill over into a Russia. So why wouldn't Russia be pro-active instead of re-active and make it's presence known?

Actually, the West massively supported the opposition movement aka "Orange Revolution" in 2004 and now again the now successful protests, because these protesters mainly located in west Ukraine are pro-Western.

The east Ukrainians, on the other hand, mostly speak and feel Russian and are pro-Russian. The now ousted former president Yanukovich belonged to that camp. He was about giving up treaties with the West/EU and embrace Russia, which is what caused the opposition uprising this time.

The uprising in Ukraine is hardly neo-Nazi or fascist, just one of the three opposition parties involved in the protests is, and the smallest at that. The two other major opposition (now governing) parties are somewhat moderate, but pro-Western.

So the West has been and will probably continue supporting these pro-Western parties, even though an extreme right radical party is among them, while Russia will continue to support the pro-Russian toppled party, in classic proxy-war fashion.
 
Yes, I'm worried about the situation for the reasons you state, although I cannot imagine WW3 will break out right now -- one side, most likely the West, will probably give in towards the other, lose face and reputation (which is a pretty big loss) in exchange for calming the situation for now.

However, if that happens, nobody can still ignore the fact that we're dealing with "Cold War 2.0". And what worries me most about that is that Germany or the EU countries in general are not at all prepared for such a confrontation and rely on US protection now more than ever. And my guess is that Americans these days are much less willing to die for Europeans than they used to be 30 years ago, or 60 years ago for that matter.

Germany has disarmed post-1990 and turned the few remaining parts of the army into an intervention army suited for places like Kosovo or Afghanistan, but is not at all prepared to do basic self-defense. Now Germany has some blame for that, but not exclusively, since this arrangement -- America protecting us, in exchange for massive influence on our policies -- has been mutually acceptable for a while. However, if the situation gets tough, I'd rather see my country being able to defend itself.

Mine too. We should make a joint eastern front.
 
Back
Top Bottom