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Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

You worried?

  • Yes

    Votes: 40 49.4%

  • No

    Votes: 36 44.4%

  • I'm buying my marshmallows

    Votes: 5 6.2%
  • Total voters
    81
DDD said:
Okay that you think that Russia's seizure of Ukraine is low. But why do you think Ukraine cannot look after themselves if left alone again?
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They are a deeply divided country incapable of effectively projecting power even within their own borders, dependent upon outside aid that may or may not be coming to prop up a bankrupt government?
 
MoSurveyor said:
Few governments initiate cyber attacks. It's bad news if they get caught at it. In fact, AFAIK we're the only government that's been caught doing it - with the exception of Russia and Georgia exchanging cyber blows during their "little war".
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One of the beauties of Cyber Attacks is the relative ease with which you can make them either non-attributable, or impossible to prove attribution (the Russians are particularly good at that trick). Which is one reason why governments do, in fact, initiate Cyber Attacks. For other exceptions where this has gone public check out China (who seems to be quite busy in this realm) and Israel. Iran joins the club as a proud member, having outed herself (as did we). Even Hermit Kingdom North Korea has gotten into the game, although it seems they got at least an initial boost there from China.

So, either we're really, really stupid (which I have a hard time believing because we have the best hackers money can buy) or the others aren't doing it, or are doing it on a very, very small scale.
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:lol: that. Or cyber defenses, capabilities, and weapons have extremely limited shelf-lives after they become public, and so are among the most tightly guarded secrets of any nation, and what has leaked is enough to make it clear that this is now a global cyber field of conflict, while what hasn't leaked is enough to make what has leaked look like the snowball on top of the tip of the iceberg.

Or, you know. Nations could be sitting on top of a perfect way to strike at opposing entities while risking very little in return and refusing to do so out of a sense of decency about the whole thing. That, too, I suppose, is a possibility ;).
 
MoSurveyor said:
Hey, if we can do it and not get caught I'd be all for it. But we tried that once, already, and we did get caught. Good thing it was just Iran and not someone with a real army and nukes.
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:raises eyebrow: we outed ourselves. The Administration wanted to have some good "Foreign Policy" chest-thumping before the election and so they leaked it to the New York Times, and outed our Israeli allies as well (who must have collectively hit the ceiling, thereby further eroding trust with a key ally in the region).
 
SBu said:
I believe I heard on the news that recent hacker attacks against retailers originated from Russia. Any thoughts on whether that was gov't sponsored or simply Russian gangs (of which there are a lot)
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What..... exactly.... makes you assume that those two things are mutually contradicting?
 
ecofarm said:
Next "point":



That's a pretty big club including basically every leader.


This one:



You're joking, right? PC and diversity is destroying America? Well, that's quite the platform.


Next:



How unusual! Not.

Irredentism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


And:



Most countries are building up their military, in one form or another.

Finally:


Seriously?



As we can plainly see, there is NOTHING unusual in any of the above comparisons. Each is commonplace to an extent that any given country will satisfy most, if not all, of them.
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_73314676_021363450-1.jpg

27 thousand pro-Kremlin marchers in WW2 uniforms carrying banners reading "Ukrainian Front".

BBC News - LIVE: Ukraine army on alert after Russia approves troops

_73313751_021337386-1.jpg

'Night Wolves' pro-Putin biker gang establishing presence in Crimea.

Meet the Night Wolves – Putin's Hell's Angels - Telegraph
 
With Gates as secretary of defense, Kerry at state and Obama as president what could go wrong? They will all be on the golf coarse.
 
ecofarm said:
Ukraine


Let's not pretend that Ukraine ever had a clear path to membership.
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I'm not, it's Ukraine's path after membership that is less concerning. Ukraine is highly unlikely to ever become an islamist state or to have an islamist leader in the same way Turkey has Erdogan.

Oh we're highly likely to have more Eastern European gangs and drugs runners (we already have them) but there are still more basic cultural similarities between us than with Turkey - and I am in favour of Turkey joining the EU. I am not going to look at either country through rose tinted glasses though.
 
cpwill said:
They are a deeply divided country incapable of effectively projecting power even within their own borders, dependent upon outside aid that may or may not be coming to prop up a bankrupt government?
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I disagree. I think that they too just like any other country can take care of themselves if not bullied from Russia and Russian promoted bully culture and corruption.
 
It is not our business

Why we should care for a business far away from our border? The situation in Ukraine is extremely dangerously; i like neither Putin nor new Ukrainian 'government' - fascist 'rebels'. Stay away from war, enough is enough.
 
SBu said:
.
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Glen Beck, I command thee, out of SBu's head! Away, demon! And don't think you can run over to MadLib's head, I'll just cast you out of there as well.
 
Last edited:
DiAnna said:
Yes, it worries me. I'm no WW2 History buff, but anyone who looks at this situation can be reminded of the Hitler's cat joke, "I can has Poland?"

Russia has occupied Crimea. It has ousted the local parliament and installed their own people. Russia has taken Crimea back, and I'm pretty damned sure it intends to keep it. It has violated the Ukrainian autonomy treaty signed between Russia, USA, UK, and Ukraine. It is massing troops on Ukraine's eastern border, next to other Ukrainian provinces that are primarily occupied by ethnic Russian-speakers.

At this point, two things are absolute: Russia has taken back Crimea, and Putin has publicly declared that he wishes to reestablish the Soviet empire.

I believe Russia will militarily occupy the Russia-friendly provinces of eastern Ukraine. There isn't a damned thing, short of WW3, anyone can do about it, and Putin knows that. The big question is, will Russia then move into EU-friendly western Ukraine, occupy that by force, reinstate the ousted Russian puppet President who the people just chased out of office, and claim Ukraine as part of Soviet Russia. If Putin does this, and the rest of the world just wrings its hands, then Ukraine will be merely the first of many previous Russian satellite countries who will, over the next few years, be re-included in the reestablishment of Putin's new USSR.

How can he be stopped short of military confrontation? Short answer: He can't. He is in control, and he knows it. The EU won't do anything. NATO won't do anything. The USA and the UK are not really in a military or economic position to go it alone. And bottom line, even if they tried, the result would probably be a lot of cities reduced to green glass, because nuclear exchange is a real potential.

Anyone who saw how Putin ignored Russian's constitution to keep himself in power permanently knows or should have known that he had a long-term agenda he intended to pursue. Ukraine is the first piece of this agenda, in my opinion. If he takes the entire country, it will not be the last.


Edit: BTW, I haven't read the thread, so if I've reiterated points that have already been made, my apologies.
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That sounds about right.

But I dont think Russia will try to take the Eastern part of the Ukraine.

Look at this from Russia's side.

I think it wants to keep Crimea. Its a critical part of its defense system - its only Black Sea naval port - and its only access to the Mediterranian. It knows if Ukraine goes pro-EU, they kick Russia out of the Crimea eventually, and they simply cant afford for that to happen.

Reports are that they have functionally taken over the Crimea, and since it is a narrow peninsula, are reinforcing defenses between it and the rest of the Ukraine.

Best guess is that they intend to encourage the overwhelmingly pro-Russian population of Crimea to declare independence and ally to Russia. I dont think Russia will want to annex Crimea itself - its tough to have a part of your nation disconnected from the mainland (It works for Alaska, I know, but... Canada) and Russias interests are totally served by a puppet state allowing their naval base to exist.
 
Peter Grimm said:
I don't know why we're not talking more about the situation in Ukraine on this site.

A few days ago, I responded to one of the threads by wondering aloud whether Putin was going to put up with the West encroaching on a former Soviet satellite. I compared the situation to Georgia a few years ago, when the Russians went in. In fact, that was at an Olympics as well if I recall.

It turns out I was right, and I'm not happy to say that.

Anyway, I have learned to generally ignore the news, but after hearing the Russian military is now in Crimea I have sat up and taken notice.

If you watch Obama's press conference addressing the issue, he looks visibly shaken and maybe even scared. And he probably should be, this is the biggest moment in his presidency.

This is much more important than Obamacare, more important than Benghazi, any of that trivial stuff.

I'm going to put it bluntly. I'd say there's about a 15% chance that this situation causes World War 3.
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 It's literally that serious.

What you have to do is look at it from Russia's perspective. If Ukraine goes westward, joins the EU, joins NATO.... all things the Russians fear.... then it's essentially Russia admitting defeat. It's Russia's sphere of influence shrinking for all the world to see.

That may not be a forgivable offense in the eyes of the Russian people. That might mean Putin's head on the chopping block, and you can bet your ass he sees it that way too.

Not only are the soldiers in Ukraine, a Russian spy ship just docked in Cuba 100 miles from Miami. The ship poses no harm, but it sends a message and I think that message is loud and clear and you don't need me to spell it out for you.

The fact that Russian soldiers are somewhat covertly in the Russian section of Crimea should tell you one thing: it's not a full-blown attack, the Russians are dipping their toes in the water to feel it out.

They're waiting. Waiting to see what Obama and the West do in response. Testing us.

Show weakness and the Russians will simply take Ukraine. That will have catastrophic consequences. We would never be able to turn a satellite country our way again, because they would know they aren't protected. It's no coincidence that the Ukrainians are asking the UK and the US for protection... and we must give it to them.

To fail to do so would strengthen Moscow and weaken Washington in a way we haven't seen since the 70's. The world does not need that. On the other hand, we must at all costs avoid backing Russia in to a corner they can't get out of, because if Putin must fight a war to maintain the status quo in terms of balance of power then I'm not so sure we can discount that possibility. We all know how catastrophic that could be for both sides.

So this should concern you. You should pay attention to this situation as it unfolds. It may all fizzle out and amount to nothing, let's hope it does, but it has the potential to change the world in ways we can't begin to comprehend.
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I disagree.

Not only will this not result in WWIII, It is very unlikely that any other countries will get directly involved in this dust-up
 
BBC News - Ukraine crisis in maps

The more I study this situation, the more I believe that the optimal solution would be to peacefully split Ukraine into two separate countries.

The people of Eastern Ukraine, especially Crimeans, prefer close ties with Russia. Russia wants to keep Ukraine, particularly Crimea, as an ally.
The people of Western Ukraine prefer close ties with the EU. The EU would likely welcome Ukraine as a new partner.

Also, I feel that Russia would get the better end of this deal, because most of the strategic ports and economic reserves--which is what they really want--lie in Eastern Ukraine.
 
Peter Grimm said:
I don't know why we're not talking more about the situation in Ukraine on this site.

A few days ago, I responded to one of the threads by wondering aloud whether Putin was going to put up with the West encroaching on a former Soviet satellite. I compared the situation to Georgia a few years ago, when the Russians went in. In fact, that was at an Olympics as well if I recall.

It turns out I was right, and I'm not happy to say that.

Anyway, I have learned to generally ignore the news, but after hearing the Russian military is now in Crimea I have sat up and taken notice.

If you watch Obama's press conference addressing the issue, he looks visibly shaken and maybe even scared. And he probably should be, this is the biggest moment in his presidency.

This is much more important than Obamacare, more important than Benghazi, any of that trivial stuff.

I'm going to put it bluntly. I'd say there's about a 15% chance that this situation causes World War 3. It's literally that serious.

What you have to do is look at it from Russia's perspective. If Ukraine goes westward, joins the EU, joins NATO.... all things the Russians fear.... then it's essentially Russia admitting defeat. It's Russia's sphere of influence shrinking for all the world to see.

That may not be a forgivable offense in the eyes of the Russian people. That might mean Putin's head on the chopping block, and you can bet your ass he sees it that way too.

Not only are the soldiers in Ukraine, a Russian spy ship just docked in Cuba 100 miles from Miami. The ship poses no harm, but it sends a message and I think that message is loud and clear and you don't need me to spell it out for you.

The fact that Russian soldiers are somewhat covertly in the Russian section of Crimea should tell you one thing: it's not a full-blown attack, the Russians are dipping their toes in the water to feel it out.

They're waiting. Waiting to see what Obama and the West do in response. Testing us.

Show weakness and the Russians will simply take Ukraine. That will have catastrophic consequences. We would never be able to turn a satellite country our way again, because they would know they aren't protected. It's no coincidence that the Ukrainians are asking the UK and the US for protection... and we must give it to them.

To fail to do so would strengthen Moscow and weaken Washington in a way we haven't seen since the 70's. The world does not need that. On the other hand, we must at all costs avoid backing Russia in to a corner they can't get out of, because if Putin must fight a war to maintain the status quo in terms of balance of power then I'm not so sure we can discount that possibility. We all know how catastrophic that could be for both sides.

So this should concern you. You should pay attention to this situation as it unfolds. It may all fizzle out and amount to nothing, let's hope it does, but it has the potential to change the world in ways we can't begin to comprehend.
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I think your concerns are valid. I share these concerns, as well.
 
DDD said:
I agree but Ukraine can fight too. They are also well armed.
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There is no reason to believe this will lead to war. Putin's bluff will be called and he will back down. He can't on one hand be part of the world of nations and still get away with his KGB thuggery. He will be isolated and alone if he continues this. Once that becomes clear he will cower like the coward he is.
 
There is the threat of a rebuilding "Soviet Union" which should be intolerable to any free person.

Also, with all the unrest there, while it makes more women available, it makes it kind of hard to get there to meet them.
 
In the period of globalization, anything that negatively impacts regional stability worries me.
 
SBu said:
I can't agree more. This is quite the pickle. Putin has drawn a line in the sand. This is such an affront to the international community that I don't see how relations can return to normal, at least not while Putin is in charge. Even Russia's government has requested Putin withdraw its US ambassador, although I'm not sure if he has or not yet.

I don't think this is going to lead to anything kinetic outside of Ukraine, but the distrust that has been simmering underneath the surface is overflowing at this point. Could easily become another Cold War. It's anyone's guess what Obama is going to do about it, but I do know for certain Putin doesn't give a damn because he doesn't respect Obama and he correctly diagnoses the West as nations that are more concerned about political correctness and diversity than growing a pair and standing up to him. Not to mention he controls significant fossil fuel assets that Europe relies on. Scary indeed.

One can't help but think about parallels to the rise of Nazism in Germany. Germany wasn't completely beaten in WW1. Russia wasn't completely beaten in the Cold War. Many Germans felt humiliated after WW1. Many Russians no doubt felt the same after the fall of the Soviet Union. Hitler came to prominence in a campaign to restore Germany's prestige and military. Putin is pursuing a similar course in Russia. Both states became progressively autocratic leading up to offensive military action. Germany viewed areas with ethnic German populations as part of greater Germany. Apparently Russia views areas with ethnic Russians as part of Russia. Germany engaged in military buildup prior to war. Russia has been building up its military in recent years. Apparently the time from defeat to fascist militarism is approximately 20-25 years. 20 years in Germany's case, 25ish years for Russia.

Edit: Oh, and both countries hosted Olympics before getting offensive. History does like to repeat itself.
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We have no reason beyond blind optimism and hope to believe that this situation will be limited to the Ukraine.
 
Phys251 said:
BBC News - Ukraine crisis in maps

The more I study this situation, the more I believe that the optimal solution would be to peacefully split Ukraine into two separate countries.

The people of Eastern Ukraine, especially Crimeans, prefer close ties with Russia. Russia wants to keep Ukraine, particularly Crimea, as an ally.
The people of Western Ukraine prefer close ties with the EU. The EU would likely welcome Ukraine as a new partner.

Also, I feel that Russia would get the better end of this deal, because most of the strategic ports and economic reserves--which is what they really want--lie in Eastern Ukraine.
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From what I know of the Ukraine, its a mistake to assume just because someone speaks Russian they are more allied with Russia than with an independent Ukraine. The nation really isnt a typical one divided by language and ethnic identification... Ukrainians identify as Ukranians despite the fact they may primarily speak Russian. Ukranian and Russian are similar languages, and I would guess that most Ukrainian speakers understand Russian quite well. (not sure about the reverse, as Russian is much more common than Ukrainian in all sorts of areas).
 
shrubnose said:
I disagree.

Not only will this not result in WWIII, It is very unlikely that any other countries will get directly involved in this dust-up
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15 percent means there's an 85 percent chance it won't happen. So I agree, it's not the most likely scenario but it is still possible.
 
iguanaman said:
There is no reason to believe this will lead to war. Putin's bluff will be called and he will back down. He can't on one hand be part of the world of nations and still get away with his KGB thuggery. He will be isolated and alone if he continues this. Once that becomes clear he will cower like the coward he is.
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Russia already took Crimea which is a part of Ukraine. Ukraine's integrity has been broken and ensurers that it would not come to this were USA, UK, and Russia in a treaty to lay of atomic bombs.

So to answer your question: This already is war. It also challenges the ensurers of that treaty. Should they back down it would go down history that there can be no gain in treaties with UK and USA for future countries.

Hopefully some start crunching some teeth and and push Putin back to your "cowardness." If nothing gets done it would appear that we are cowards instead.
 
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