I think the most practical analysis, though, would predict that the Tea Party would take the very conservative and moderates would join the Republicans. So the Republicans and TPers wouldn't be fighting for the same base against the Democrats. The Democrats would be left with the very liberal. Thus, the Republican party would be the group that most people in the US most closely identified with.
The very conservative and the very liberal are the loudest groups- and of course the most detached from reality- but they're not the most numerous.
The problem is you're seemingly thinking there's just "VERY" conservative people, moderates, and "VERY" Liberal. I think that's a very narrow view of the general public. Even within “Conservatives” and “Liberals” you’ll likely have people who largely lean that direction, but the intensity of that lean ranges between Heavy, Moderate, and Mild.
Pew polls shows that 39% consider themselves Conservative, 37% “moderate”, and 23% Liberal. Equire’s recent poll about the “center”, 55% of them feel they are “moderate”, 25% feel they are “conservative”, and 20% feel they are “liberal”.
So our “Moderate” number actually becomes 22%. Conservative becomes 48%. Our Liberal becomes 30%.
Now, I think you’re crazy if you think that the “Tea Party” Party is going to get ALL of those 48% who consider themselves Conservative. ACTUALLY, I think it’d be a hard fought thing to get even half early on. Name recognition is one reason, trust in an established brand is another, and disagreements with the “Tea Party” Party depending on the stances it strikes on Social and Defense issues all are going to fragment things. Furthermore, 9% of that 48% are “Moderates” who are right leaning. Of the original “39%” number, it’s unreasonable to think that ALL of them are “Heavily” Conservative types, so you can’t count them all or an overwhelming majority for the “Tea Party” party.
But let’s say they split that half. Suddenly you see the Democrats with a base of 30%, the Republicans with a base of 24%, and the “Tea Party Party” with a base of 24%. Suddenly, both “Conservative” parties are at a 6% deficit prior to the race to convince “moderates” to come to your side.
We established about 20% of “moderates” up for grab…ie Individuals who not just identify as moderate, but even amongst moderates are pretty moderate. Given the bases, a Democratic candidate would need to garner 8 of that 20 percentage to pretty much guarantee a victory even if the Republicans or the TPP managed to get all the rest on their own. In reality, the Republicans and TPP probably split part of the Moderate vote, giving Democrats an even easier road.
We’re not in a black and white world, there’s a lot of shades of grey. By all reputable polls I’ve seen, there does seem to suggest there’s more “conservatives” than there are “liberals” in the US…but where your thinking is faulty is assuming that every conservative is HEAVILY conservative and will definitely go with the Tea Party.
I consider myself a Tea Partier. If the last election we had Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) vs Rick Santorum (TPP) my vote would’ve gone to Romney DESPITE viewing myself as Staunchly conservative and identifying as a Tea Partier…because I felt that Rick Santorum’s Social views and Defense views actually CONFLICT with the ideals of the Tea Party and had a legitimate chance of actually hurting this nation. Yet as the election went on, many (within a segment), of the Tea Party seemed to be championing him as their guy.
This goes back to my earlier statement regarding of the Tea Party being a better regional, than national, entity and better as a “Movement” than as an actual “Political” party. The Tea Party is unified because it focuses on a few narrow things, and allows the rest of the important political questions to be handled on a case by case, area by area basis. You don’t get that on a federal level, as a national “party”.
