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North Korea - Your Gut Says....

North Korea is

  • saber rattling like a champ - not a real threat - never was

    Votes: 3 7.0%

  • a spoiled brat seeking attention - not a real threat

    Votes: 12 27.9%

  • trying to provoke US/SK into striking first

    Votes: 6 14.0%

  • a real threat

    Votes: 5 11.6%

  • a teeny-tiny threat - but still something we should watch

    Votes: 12 27.9%

  • other - please explain

    Votes: 5 11.6%
  • Total voters
    43
Dragonfly

Dragonfly

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What's your gut feeling about North Korea these days?

Massive saber rattling?

Spoiled brat new leader just looking for attention, and only knows one way to get it?

Trying to provoke another country (South Korea/USA) to strike NK first?

Serious threat?
 
my guess is that he doesn't intend to launch something. however, he's ratcheted up tensions to the point where a stray shot could cause a major crisis.

my other feeling is that China, as the regional powerhouse, needs to be the one dealing with this.
 
Dragonfly said:
What's your gut feeling about North Korea these days?

Massive saber rattling?

Spoiled brat new leader just looking for attention, and only knows one way to get it?

Trying to provoke another country (South Korea/USA) to strike NK first?

Serious threat?
Click to expand...

In your heart you know he's NUTS !!:mrgreen:
 
It's a tricky one.

For Kim Jong Il, doing this was done in a cold calculated way, a means to an end to get some kind of concession, whether that be food aid for backing down or whatever.

With Kim Jong Un the line is far murkier.

What he's doing is the equivalent of flailing his arms around going "look how scary I am".

However in this process he's gone much further than his father and in doing so has put the punisula into a blinking contest which even if not his intention, could lead to war if someone gets nervous and pulls a trigger.

Most concerning is the denial of South Korean supplies into the Kaesong industrial zone... An important source of income for the regime, the fact Kim Jong Un would close it is an extremely idiotic move.

On the flip side a couple of reports I've seen indicate there has not been a mass mobilization of NK forces so Un may just be doing what North Korea always does, crap the bed to get something they want... Only this time they went too far.

Also many analysts believe that he has manufactured this crisis in order to solidify his leadership with his skeleton generals and look like a hero in the eyes of his people, standing up to the "imperialists"

You know you're being a Douche when even Russia goes "dude... Chill".
 
A threat to S. Korea for sure and probably a threat to Japan, but not a threat to the US. Does the god-king really wanna go out on top? Maybe.
 
Dragonfly said:
What's your gut feeling about North Korea these days?

Massive saber rattling?

Spoiled brat new leader just looking for attention, and only knows one way to get it?

Trying to provoke another country (South Korea/USA) to strike NK first?

Serious threat?
Click to expand...

Probably a combination of the above. No matter how crazy he is (and I expect that it's a serious amount of crazy), I would never make assumptions that the threat is not to be taken seriously.
 
lizzie said:
Probably a combination of the above. No matter how crazy he is (and I expect that it's a serious amount of crazy), I would never make assumptions that the threat is not to be taken seriously.
Click to expand...

I just hope that any idea of a preemptive strike by the USofA is completely OFF the table.
 
Dragonfly said:
What's your gut feeling about North Korea these days?

Massive saber rattling?

Spoiled brat new leader just looking for attention, and only knows one way to get it?

Trying to provoke another country (South Korea/USA) to strike NK first?

Serious threat?
Click to expand...

A tiny threat worth watching.
 
Dragonfly said:
I just hope that any idea of a preemptive strike by the USofA is completely OFF the table.
Click to expand...

I do too, but I definitely favor a show of strength and resolve toward any world leader who has the cahones to make a verbal threat in front of the entire world.
 
MaggieD said:
A tiny threat worth watching.
Click to expand...

IMHO nuclear weapons in the hands of a homicidal lunatic is not a tiny threat. He doesn't need an advanced missile delivery system to do damage and he needs is someone to hike across the border with a backpack and drop it in a trash can in Seoul with a timer set to go off the next day then head back to Pyongyang and hundreds of thousands die, not the mention the global financial repercussions.
 
I think the threat of war might be as much a bluff to his generals and people as anyone else. They don't want a war but probably want him gone. So he's saying accept my rule or I'll plunge us into conflict, which could get him assassinated or cause a coup.
 
Dragonfly said:
I just hope that any idea of a preemptive strike by the USofA is completely OFF the table.
Click to expand...

Well considering who is President, of course it is unfortunately. A strike is about 7 years over due.
 
penn1954 said:
Yep. I'd like to see him taken out by a sniper.

Dont want our troops there !!!!
Click to expand...

I think bombing sorties and missile launches ought to do it. Its not just Lil Kim but DPRK's whole nuclear research, development, storage and delivery apparatus that needs to be destroyed. If in response they send their foot soldiers marking South, we might have to have boots on the ground....maybe. I would hope they'd just go home but you never know.

Whatever happens, a thorough PR campaign; leaflets, radio transmissions, TV, etc. need to keep the North Korean people and troops informed on our motives and steps they should take to ensure their own safety.
 
Fisher said:
Well considering who is President, of course it is unfortunately. A strike is about 7 years over due.
Click to expand...

So you favor preemptive military strikes on people for nothing more than action-less words?
 
Dragonfly said:
So you favor preemptive military strikes on people for nothing more than action-less words?
Click to expand...

The creation of a nuclear weapon required some action I would imagine. The testing of nuclear weapons required at least someone to flip a switch. Yes I favor a preemptive strike. If Iran had an ICBM threatening to nuke Israel a great many Americans would be screaming in the streets that we must bomb Iran, but North Korea has one and is threatening the US and you want to do nothing? You have way too much faith in our missile intercept technology.
 
Fisher said:
The creation of a nuclear weapon required some action I would imagine. The testing of nuclear weapons required at least someone to flip a switch. Yes I favor a preemptive strike. If Iran had an ICBM threatening to nuke Israel a great many Americans would be screaming in the streets that we must bomb Iran, but North Korea has one and is threatening the US and you want to do nothing? You have way too much faith in our missile intercept technology.
Click to expand...

You have way too little faith that the Chinese will allow a situation where millions of starving NK refugees will flood accross their border. What NK wants is leverage to get aid, probably from China and see making threats as a way to apply pressure to help get that aid.
 
Dragonfly said:
So you favor preemptive military strikes on people for nothing more than action-less words?
Click to expand...

Would you consider saying someone is going to kill somebody, getting out a gun, loading it and pointing at the person's head but he hasn't pulled the trigger "action-less words?"
 
ttwtt78640 said:
You have way too little faith that the Chinese will allow a situation where millions of starving NK refugees will flood accross their border. What NK wants is leverage to get aid, probably from China and see making threats as a way to apply pressure to help get that aid.
Click to expand...

I know what NK wants, but I also know the card they are playing. How many times are you willing to pay the extortionists? You are just helping prop up the failed government and maintain the same status quo that keeps so many people on the edge of starvation. Destroy their military, topple their government and let Korea be reunited and be done with it.
 
I'm going with the spoiled brat theory.

He's been buddies with Ahmadinijad but only really for tech so he knows he's getting used there. Ahmadinijad has his own little proxy war going on which has gained them some support from China and Russia. Un is now feeling a little left out - after all, he's the one with the nuke - so he starts to stir things up...get a little "street cred". The big question now is how far will he go before one of his generals puts a bullet in the back of his head.
 
Smeagol said:
Would you consider saying someone is going to kill somebody, getting out a gun, loading it and pointing at the person's head but he hasn't pulled the trigger "action-less words?"
Click to expand...

Whose "head" is NK pointing a loaded gun at?
 
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