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is the population bomb real

Is the world overpopulated


  • Total voters
    47
This is from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization - which you cited as being one of the sources that says we have "more than enough food", and it is a projection looking into the future:



and



http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/expert_paper/How_to_Feed_the_World_in_2050.pdf

"more than enough" no matter how emphasized describes the situation at present.

From the link:
In developing countries, 80 percent of the necessary production increases would come from
increases in yields and cropping intensity and only 20 percent from expansion of arable land.

There's plenty of land to farm.

Some places will face a problem with lack of sustainable agriculture. That is why there is a need to move towards a global trading system that is fair and competitive; and that contributes to a dependable market for food.

We are more than capable of supporting our population, assuming we take the necessary steps.
 
"Soon" is important in terms of food costs affecting quality of life.


Yes.

Ever seen what it takes to feed 7 billion people? It's amazing there's not a bigger problem already.

I have a rough image in my head.
 
no vote
The selections are too limited ,biased, and controlling.
Where is "other" ?
Eventually we will need population control (other than abortion).
China is decades ahead of us, this is not the first time, either.
 
The population problem is not so much of a problem as long as we have abundant cheap energy. Our slightly waning fertility rates do not prove that population is no big deal. We have already blown by the number that would be sustained in a world without cheap oil.
 
From the link:


Some places will face a problem with lack of sustainable agriculture. That is why there is a need to move towards a global trading system that is fair and competitive; and that contributes to a
dependable market for food.

We are more than capable of supporting our population, assuming we take the necessary steps.

Yes, what you quoted from the link underscores my point.. we have to have a continuation in increased agricultural yields from the present farmed acreage. We have to hope that the rate of advancement in yields per acre continues at or around the pace that it has .. but from what I have quoted earlier it is slowing.

this is the point I have been making, and continue to make:

But the fact is that globally the rate of growth in yields of the major cereal crops has been
steadily declining, it dropped from 3.2 percent per year in 1960 to 1.5 percent in 2000. The
challenge for technology is to reverse this decline, since a continuous linear increase in
yields at a global level following the pattern established over the past five decades will not be
sufficient to meet food needs.

The assumption we have to make is that advances in agriculture keep pace with the demand for food, this is not a given, and IF it does not then we could be in for a forced adjustment at some point in the future when we hit carrying capacity.
 
Yes.



I have a rough image in my head.


I think we have the land and ability but I believe when the costs of producing food begin to outweigh the profit we'll see shortages.

I saw a documentary showing just a fraction of the food it takes to feed the US and it was mind boggling. It was literally enough to cover a small desert on a daily basis. It made me think we're also going to start seeing stories about some pretty gross things being done to cut costs. Worse than bacteria tainted food, pink slime or drugged up horse meat.
 
From the link:


There's plenty of land to farm.

Some places will face a problem with lack of sustainable agriculture. That is why there is a need to move towards a global trading system that is fair and competitive; and that contributes to a dependable market for food.

We are more than capable of supporting our population, assuming we take the necessary steps.

Do you ever factor in anything besides humanity? You talk about 3rd world countries expanding agriculture but ignore the consequences of this on other species.

Human Elephant Conflict










"Human-elephant conflict (HEC) is dramatically on the rise and has become one of the major issues in the fight to save Asia's endangered elephants. In fact in most countries across the Asian elephant's range, it has replaced poaching as the major human cause of elephant mortality.

The rise in HEC has been the result of the relentless increase of the human population in Asia and the resulting loss and fragmentation of elephant habitat. Under pressure from higher population densities and lack of fodder, elephant populations are increasingly turning to crop raiding for sustenance.

Wild elephants can destroy a farmer's livelihood and a year of hard work in just a few short hours. These farmers are normally poor smallholders and the damage caused by elephants can be financially ruinous for them and their families. The fight to protect their fields can lead to the mobilisation of entire communities, particularly when harvest time approaches. Many techniques are used; lighting fires, banging drums and making noise, setting off firearms and fire crackers, digging trenches, putting up electric fences. Unfortunately often these methods are to no avail - hungry elephants are difficult to frighten off and they become acclimatised to the techniques.

Human Elephant Conflict
 
Wow! That's funny! For some reason I remember that Europe colonized all of Africa and then was forced to leave due to democratic uprisings, but they still had a strangle hold on the economy. (Neo-Colonialism, Subversion in Africa and Global Conflict | nsnbc ìnternational) (http://www.stanford.edu/class/e297a/Neo-Colonialism in Africa.pdf)

You act like those investments are coming from a place of love and compassion, but it isn't. European nations are grabbing up land in Africa and using it to produce biofuels and GMOS, which prevent food production. (Land acquired over past decade could have produced food for a billion people | Global development | The Guardian) (GRAIN — Land grabbing for biofuels must stop)

This also hurts employment, something that would give people the ability to, you know, take care of the kids they already have.

"When not displaced, the conversion of local farmers into laborers holds numerous negative consequences for local populations. Most deals are based on the eventual formation of plantation-style farming, whereupon the investing company will own the land and employ locals as laborers in large-scale agricultural plots. The number of jobs created varies greatly dependent on commodity type and style of farming planned.In spite of this volatility, guarantees of job creation are rarely, if ever, addressed in contracts. This fact, combined with the intrinsic incentives towards mechanization in plantation-style production, can lead to much lower employment than originally planned for." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_grabbing#Employment)

EDIT: Actually it is about whether or not people have the right to have children, seeing as how that's what the thread is about.

The colonization of Africa lasted for less than a century. In most cases, only around 70 years since the scramble for Africa has only stated in the 1880s. The only colony at that time was South Africa, colonized by the British. Occupations between Europeans lasted longer. During that time, they had railworks, hospitals and cities built, as well research done to cure malaria and other diseases to which, until that time, there was no cure. And yes, the voodoo, medicine man BS is not real medicine. It was a joke.

Say what you will, but it was the colonization of africa that allowed real progress to be made there, skipping centuries of development in a few decades. This of course, is not necessarily a good thing, but make of it as you will.

Of course the interest of the companies, which again, are not just European, but from all corners of the world, is self-interest. It is not charity. But it is self-interest that allows for progress and the economy to exist. Again, each government of each country has more power in their pen than the companies that exist there. If they choose so, they can nationalize all assets. It will be interesting to see what will happen then. I assume it will happen something similar to shooting yourself in your legs. Like it or not, the foreign investments in those countries are all that keeps those countries afloat.

Next off, automatization is desirable. It should be done everywhere as fast as possible, in Europe, the US and in Africa where industrialization occurs. New generations of kids should not be taught that their future lies on the production line, but managing an automatized line.

And about the children, again, the fact that they have outrageously high fertility rates contributes to the state of their nations. If they stopped having so many children, and instead, focused on taking care of 1-2 kids/family, there could be less, better schools to prepare those kids for life and in the span of 2 generations, the face of Africa could change dramatically, from an impoverished continent to one of the fastest and smartest growing economic regions of the world. And in doing so, we will be addressing a part of the overpopulation business. I am not saying that I have any power to dictate how many kids they have. I am just saying that it would be wise of those governments to address the issue of population growth in their nations as a threat to the welfare of the nation. And I mean welfare as it the well doing of the nation, not welfare programs.
 
Tremendous pessimism on this thread. We also thought we were going to run out of oil by now and technology and science has helped us find more oil and more effeciently extract it. The cause of starvation is not finite resources but political corruption. The point brought up earlier about the sun being a finite resource probably best describes the point. You have to make a lot of assumptions about the future to claim that we are running out of anything. Need and Necessity are the mother of all inventions. Of course we are not producing a giant excess of food right now. This is not death a nail for the future it is simply a reality of how supply and demand works. Why would we want tons of excess food? What a waste of resources. I think the larger question to be asked is who should be responsible for the population limits envisioned in this thread. On who's authority and which elites will retain the power and force to ensure these dictates are followed? People left free will solve these problems without the need for force. Attempts at centrally planning solutions to population problems are problematic at best and in all likelyhood would be catastrophic. Remove barriers to trade, barriers to work, barriers to create businesses and let people go about the needed work of fulfilling the needs/demands of the world population. The eventual scarcity in resources as postulated if it ever becomes a problem will become apparent in price actions in the market. Today prices go down with increases in efficency and productivity so cleary resource contraints are not the issue.
 
Tremendous pessimism on this thread. We also thought we were going to run out of oil by now and technology and science has helped us find more oil and more effeciently extract it. The cause of starvation is not finite resources but political corruption. The point brought up earlier about the sun being a finite resource probably best describes the point. You have to make a lot of assumptions about the future to claim that we are running out of anything. Need and Necessity are the mother of all inventions. Of course we are not producing a giant excess of food right now. This is not death a nail for the future it is simply a reality of how supply and demand works. Why would we want tons of excess food? What a waste of resources. I think the larger question to be asked is who should be responsible for the population limits envisioned in this thread. On who's authority and which elites will retain the power and force to ensure these dictates are followed? People left free will solve these problems without the need for force. Attempts at centrally planning solutions to population problems are problematic at best and in all likelyhood would be catastrophic. Remove barriers to trade, barriers to work, barriers to create businesses and let people go about the needed work of fulfilling the needs/demands of the world population. The eventual scarcity in resources as postulated if it ever becomes a problem will become apparent in price actions in the market. Today prices go down with increases in efficency and productivity so cleary resource contraints are not the issue.

Did you not read post #59 or are you ignoring it?
 
Did you not read post #59 or are you ignoring it?

I suspect you are trying to make the argument that there are no private solutions to these types of environmental challenges. Elephants and other plants or animals that come into conflict with population growth have generally been accepted as best dealt with by Statists. I am not sure that by articulating a problem, (ie: elephants are being harmed by the expansion of farm land,) that the conclusion can be assumed away. If you want to make a case that the fate of elephants require population control or are somehow an indicator of overpopulation or over farming then I am all ears. My general point is that solutions to these problems exist outside the draconion control of population expansion. I am just not a believer in the assumption that progress is necessarily destructive to nature. There is no doubt that these issues have merit. Some of the best environmental programs are privately funded and privately executed.
 
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I suspect you are trying to make the argument that there are no private solutions to these types of environmental challenges. Elephants and other plants or animals that come into conflict with population growth have generally been accepted as best dealt with by Statists. I am not sure that by articulating a problem, (ie: elephants are being harmed by the expansion of farm land,) that the conclusion can be assumed away. If you want to make a case that the fate of elephants require population control or are somehow an indicator of overpopulation or over farming then I am all ears. My general point is that solutions to these problems exist outside the draconion control of population expansion. I am just not a believer in the assumption that progress is necessarily destructive to nature. There is no doubt that these issues have merit. Some of the best environmental programs are privately funded and privately executed.

What I am trying to say is we need to leave room for other species. Man is very intelligent and I think we could probably fill every acre of land on earth with 100 people and still find a way to survive but at what price. Shouldn't we consider other species and their right to exist? Shouldn't we be smarter than a cancer that grows uncontrollably until it finally sickens and kills the host organism?
 
What I am trying to say is we need to leave room for other species. Man is very intelligent and I think we could probably fill every acre of land on earth with 100 people and still find a way to survive but at what price. Shouldn't we consider other species and their right to exist? Shouldn't we be smarter than a cancer that grows uncontrollably until it finally sickens and kills the host organism?

Sustainability is hugely important to our long term health. All the evidence I have seen from Air pollution to endangered species suggests that as we progress economically and become more efficient with resources all of these concerns are being dealt with. Air quality has been on the rise for decades as vehicle admissions have fallen dramatically. Population growth does not add pollution, land use, or resource depletion on a 1 for 1 basis. Our ticket to sustainability is not limiting population growth but promoting economic growth. I think your concerns are valid but have yet to see a plan or philosophy that is more practical then free market growth and an educated population that can make informed decisions. The poorest pockets of the world don't need more oppression or population control, they need more freedom so they can grow into more advanced civilizations.
 
Ehrlich was wrong is practically every prediction he made in The Population Bomb. I find it hard to believe that he's given any credence now. His track record is terrible.
 
Do you ever factor in anything besides humanity? You talk about 3rd world countries expanding agriculture but ignore the consequences of this on other species.

Human Elephant Conflict










"Human-elephant conflict (HEC) is dramatically on the rise and has become one of the major issues in the fight to save Asia's endangered elephants. In fact in most countries across the Asian elephant's range, it has replaced poaching as the major human cause of elephant mortality.

The rise in HEC has been the result of the relentless increase of the human population in Asia and the resulting loss and fragmentation of elephant habitat. Under pressure from higher population densities and lack of fodder, elephant populations are increasingly turning to crop raiding for sustenance.

Wild elephants can destroy a farmer's livelihood and a year of hard work in just a few short hours. These farmers are normally poor smallholders and the damage caused by elephants can be financially ruinous for them and their families. The fight to protect their fields can lead to the mobilisation of entire communities, particularly when harvest time approaches. Many techniques are used; lighting fires, banging drums and making noise, setting off firearms and fire crackers, digging trenches, putting up electric fences. Unfortunately often these methods are to no avail - hungry elephants are difficult to frighten off and they become acclimatised to the techniques.

Human Elephant Conflict

There are plenty of places to farm that won't spark an Elephant-Human war.
 
I think we have the land and ability but I believe when the costs of producing food begin to outweigh the profit we'll see shortages.

Necessity is the mother of invention.

I saw a documentary showing just a fraction of the food it takes to feed the US and it was mind boggling. It was literally enough to cover a small desert on a daily basis. It made me think we're also going to start seeing stories about some pretty gross things being done to cut costs. Worse than bacteria tainted food, pink slime or drugged up horse meat.

Yeah, we're pretty wasteful. Bit of a sore spot.
 
The assumption we have to make is that advances in agriculture keep pace with the demand for food, this is not a given, and IF it does not then we could be in for a forced adjustment at some point in the future when we hit carrying capacity.

According to a 2009 report published by the FAO, about 400 million hectares of African savannah are quite suitable for farming--but only 10 percent of that land is currently cultivated. We have the resources now, but we're just not using it. Claiming that overpopulation is threatening the world is distracting from the serious issues. African countries don't need family planning programs, we need farmers.
 
According to a 2009 report published by the FAO, about 400 million hectares of African savannah are quite suitable for farming--but only 10 percent of that land is currently cultivated. We have the resources now, but we're just not using it. Claiming that overpopulation is threatening the world is distracting from the serious issues. African countries don't need family planning programs, we need farmers.

I think you're underestimating the global human dependence on fossil fuels whose EROEI will invariably dwindle over time. Seven billion or more people cannot simply make the regressive transition to agrarianism without a painful global adjustment to it (one that I think would result in half of them or more perishing).

Our ticket to sustainability is not limiting population growth but promoting economic growth.

‘Economic growth is not intrinsically good or bad. It is good to the extent that it promotes the fulfillment of basic needs and/or increases quality of life, and bad to the extent that it undermines them immediately, or in the long term; for example, through adverse environmental effects.’

An interesting old thread I mined for this thread:

http://www.debatepolitics.com/environment-and-climate-issues/131255-liberals-growth-based-economic-policies-bad-environment.html
 
Your poll choices exhibit clear bias, and the options are less than optimal.
 
Neomalthusian: "I think that our economic expectations have become so reliant on (I might even say addicted to) growth, that any set of policies which neglects the need for growth and brings us back to sustainability would a) bring about massive economic pain and drop in our living standards, and b) therefore be utter political suicide.

In other words, our economic expectations consistently override any need for sustainability. Implementing sustainable policies may indeed be economically irrational in the immediate term, but an economic imperative in the long term. Seems nearly everyone figures we're going to collapse, yet won't give up their stance on so many government expenditures and requirements for "full employment" and jobs bills and extending welfare programs and benefits and entitling people to health care. We're essentially arguing over room service as the ship sinks (and we admit it's sinking)."

Interesting Thread, suprised it wasn't commented on further. I stole your last point from it to discuss growth further here. I think my first concern would be to caution people not to consider growth and sustainability as mutually exclusive. It doesn't make practical sense to argue this point out to an infinite timeline. The relevant issue is can we get growth and sustainability that doesn't lead to the parabolic consumption of resources that is addressed as the tipping point. The other thing to consider is that not all economic growth comes at the cost of increased consumption. Efficiencies are a major source of economic progress. Air Quality is better now, even with more cars on the road, then it was 20 years ago. One could even argue that economic progress in this area benefited sustainability.
 
According to a 2009 report published by the FAO, about 400 million hectares of African savannah are quite suitable for farming--but only 10 percent of that land is currently cultivated. We have the resources now, but we're just not using it. Claiming that overpopulation is threatening the world is distracting from the serious issues. African countries don't need family planning programs, we need farmers.

Similarly, perhaps a thousand times more energy comes from the sun than we use, but we are not using it. Extinctions, talk about Pandas, tree kangaroos, buffalos, doves, etc. I believe I read an article that 500 species are becoming extinct every year. AGW, destruction of habitat, pollution, and a myriad of other anthropogenic (caused by man) causes are destroying the planet. The population bomb went off about 1900 and noone noticed. Nowadays, one need only study the many hockey stick graphs detailing man's track record. The track record would not indicate that homo sapiens are all that intelligent. When a species destroys their own habitat, they are generally considered to be ignorant. Screw a bunch of farmer's and family planners and do a reality check. It would appear that, as a species, we are ignorant or just plain nuts.
 
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