You do realize that the CBO stated that those covered by employer insurance will go up every year, right? Do you know why the CBO increased the estimate of those who would be dropped by employers? Here, let me quote the CBO report:
Lower marginal tax rates under the American Taxpayer Relief Act reduce the tax benefit associated with employment-based health insurance and will lead to a greater reduction in such coverage and higher enrollment in insurance exchanges than previously estimated by CBO and JCT.
I love that you quote this. Describe for us what you think is meant by the words "
a greater reduction in such coverage".
Let's quote at length here to see where the disparity lies:
...For the 2013–2022 period, technical changes to estimates for the Medicaid program have reduced projections for spending by $236 billion (or 5.5 percent) relative to CBO’s estimates in August 2012. (Changes to estimates of Medicaid outlays related to legislation or economic factors amounted only to $3 billion.) The revisions reflect both lower anticipated enrollment in Medicaid and lower expected costs per person. CBO now estimates that enrollment in 2022, for example, will be about 84 million, compared with the 85 million it projected last August. Although CBO projects that more people will enroll in Medicaid for the first time because of the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of the program, the agency’s projection of the number of people who would have been covered by Medicaid in the absence of that act has declined by a greater amount. Lower estimated Medicaid enrollment among those other groups is, in part, the result of improvements in CBO’s methods for forecasting the number of people with insurance. More people are now expected to have insurance through other sources (primarily employers), resulting in lower projected enrollment in Medicaid....
You will note that the "more people will have insurance through other sources (primarily employers)" was not based off of current numbers
but rather off of the baseline of assumed losses that includes employers but does not state that the growth from that baseline comes from them. You will note if you skip to page 60 that the raw amount of employer-penalty
increases from the 2012 to the 2013 estimates while the
individual penalty amounts goes
down, indicating that
more employers are pushing people off their insurance rolls than previously estimated, and more individuals are purchasing on the exchanges than previously estimated.
Oh, and look, the chart even has those handy little explanations at the bottom:
The change in employment-based coverage is the net result of projected increases in and losses of offers of health insurance from employers and projected changes in enrollment by workers and their families
That net change between 2012 and 2013? -4 Million people; with a total of 7 million people now projected to lose offers of health insurance from employers.
Oh look, if we skip from there on to page 64 we run into the most
interesting paragraph.
Fewer People with Employment-Based Coverage
In 2022, by CBO and JCT’s estimate, 7 million fewer people will have employment-based health insurance as a result of the Affordable Care Act; in August, that figure was estimated to be about 4 million people. The revision is the net effect of several considerations, with the largest factor being the reduction in marginal tax rates, which reduces the tax benefits associated with health insurance provided by employers. The increased movement out of employment-based coverage also reflects revisions to CBO’s projections of income over time and higher projections of employment-based coverage in the absence of the Affordable Care Act. Reductions in employment-based health insurance coverage boost federal tax revenues because they increase the proportion of compensation received by workers that is taxable. (That effect is included in Table A-2 in the line labeled “Other Effects on Tax Revenues and Outlays.”) Although a greater reduction in the number of people with employment-based coverage is expected, the projected increase in revenues from changes in the taxability of compensation is now $53 billion less for the 2013–2022 period than was projected in August because of the lower tax rates enacted in the American Taxpayer Relief Act and because of other technical changes.
Gosh, that doesn't sound at
all like
Redress said:
You do realize that the CBO stated that those covered by employer insurance will go up every year, right?
In fact, it sort of sounds like the
exact opposite of that...
I dunno. Maybe you should read your own sources before you decide to throw around comments like
Redress said:
I read them myself. I like raw data and thinking for myself.
....because now it sort of looks like either you
lied, or you lack reading comprehension.
I'm thinking it's neither - that in fact you
scanned until a sentence that you thought would prove your point caught your eye, marched in here sure that because cpwill cited a conservative source it
must have been twisting the truth, and are now caught.
