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Odds of a fiscal deal getting done

What are the odds of a deal getting done?

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Phys251

Phys251

Purge evil with Justice
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What are the odds that Congress will pass a deal to prevent the "fiscal cliff" by the end of the month that Obama will sign?
 
If you mean the end of December, Zero.
 
The odds that real spending cuts and accross the board tax rate increases (the fiscal cliff law) will be allowed to stand is zero. What will happen is that a "bipartisan compromise" bill to "kick the can down the road" and to continue with $1 trillion+ deficits will be done, with the "promise" to address this "vital budgetary issue" later. The DC crew is very good at not acting to reduce gov't spending, spending more than they dare ask for in direct taxation and borrowing money to buy votes. Yes they can!
 
What might happen if Congress cannot reach a deal, which it seems unlikely they will, is the tax cuts will expire at the end of the year for everyone, then the first day of the new session, the Democrats revise the filibuster rules to require that you actually have to stand up and filibuster (like it used to be) in the Senate, pass tax cuts for those making less than $400,000 a year, and leave it for the House GOP to deny tax cuts to the majority of the country.

Your play GOP.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
The odds that real spending cuts and accross the board tax rate increases (the fiscal cliff law) will be allowed to stand is zero. What will happen is that a "bipartisan compromise" bill to "kick the can down the road" and to continue with $1 trillion+ deficits will be done, with the "promise" to address this "vital budgetary issue" later. The DC crew is very good at not acting to reduce gov't spending, spending more than they dare ask for in direct taxation and borrowing money to buy votes. Yes they can!
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Any real deal will probably be some of that anyway.
 
Catawba said:
What might happen if Congress cannot reach a deal, which it seems unlikely they will, is the tax cuts will expire at the end of the year for everyone, then the first day of the new session, the Democrats revise the filibuster rules to require that you actually have to stand up and filibuster (like it used to be) in the Senate, pass tax cuts for those making less than $400,000 a year, and leave it for the House GOP to deny tax cuts to the majority of the country.

Your play GOP.
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Are you kidding me? They will just leave all of those real spending cuts in place?
 
ttwtt78640 said:
Are you kidding me? They will just leave all of those real spending cuts in place?
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I'm guessing they will vote to reduce the cuts. I mean both houses of Congress just voted for over $615 billion dollars of military spending next year. 90 Democrats opposed it, and zero Republicans opposed spending almost as much of the rest of the world combined on military.
 
Catawba said:
I'm guessing they will vote to reduce the cuts. I mean both houses of Congress just voted for over $615 billion dollars of military spending next year. 90 Democrats opposed it, and zero Republicans opposed spending almost as much of the rest of the world combined on military.
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Yep. First they make a law/deal and then they quietly violate it. That was how "pay go" is handled; it is said that a "crisis" or "emergency" (such as the once every decade census) allows (requires?) a "waiver". We no longer even do "budgets" any more since Obama likes the "one time" TARP and Stimulus 1 federal spending level (2008/9 spending was 20% more than in 2007/8 spending) so that is simply carried forward by "continuing resolution". Neither the republicants nor the demorats will ever cut spending, since all federal spending has its fan club of campaign funders or voting blocks. The congress critters simply make deals; I'll allow your pork if you'll allow mine, I'll support your amendment if you'll support mine. USA, USA, USA...
 
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i'd put the probability at 98+ percent that they will at least punt it into next year. we aren't going over the cliff. if we did, the consequences would involve the careers of most of congress, and the legacy of Obama. my guess is that they won't let it happen. it's a lot easier to come up with some lukewarm compromise which doesn't really solve the problem but averts the immediate danger. that's what they'll do, and they'll pat themselves on the back heartily for doing so. this is the dramatic lead up portion of the narrative.
 
Helix said:
i'd put the probability at 98+ percent that they will at least punt it into next year. we aren't going over the cliff. if we did, the consequences would involve the careers of most of congress, and the legacy of Obama. my guess is that they won't let it happen. it's a lot easier to come up with some lukewarm compromise which doesn't really solve the problem but averts the immediate danger. that's what they'll do, and they'll pat themselves on the back heartily for doing so. this is the dramatic lead up portion of the narrative.
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Exactly. They'll keep passing the buck because that's all congress is good for. And the prez is a worthless figure head who does less than the queen of england.
 
Last minute deal will be pushed through like always..
 
Phys251 said:
What are the odds that Congress will pass a deal to prevent the "fiscal cliff" by the end of the month that Obama will sign?
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None. Cantor just sent the GOP home for the year. Or that's what Pulse is saying.

There will be no deal.

A better question is how long will Boehner last as Speaker now that his own party is killing off his plans, even those that are little more then face savers?

FYI: Now is good time to short stocks and prepare to load up on them after. Remember 2008? When the GOP said "F OFF" to the Bailout bill? Market took a massive dive. Then they reconsidered. Same thing is likely to happen here. We'll get a deal. In 2013.
 
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It will get done, maybe not before the doom date, both sides know americans are watching closely.
 
obvious Child said:
None. Cantor just sent the GOP home for the year. Or that's what Pulse is saying.

There will be no deal.

A better question is how long will Boehner last as Speaker now that his own party is killing off his plans, even those that are little more then face savers?

FYI: Now is good time to short stocks and prepare to load up on them after. Remember 2008? When the GOP said "F OFF" to the Bailout bill? Market took a massive dive. Then they reconsidered. Same thing is likely to happen here. We'll get a deal. In 2013.
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I just read a posted link on another forum where boehner says he doesnt care about remaining speaker...that means to me that he either knows or believes he wont be around much longer...this is the guy that broke out in tears saying he finally achieved his dream..its not his fault the teaparty has him between a rock and hard place with the traditional gop...the party is fractured
 
lpast said:
I just read a posted link on another forum where boehner says he doesnt care about remaining speaker...that means to me that he either knows or believes he wont be around much longer...this is the guy that broke out in tears saying he finally achieved his dream..its not his fault the teaparty has him between a rock and hard place with the traditional gop...the party is fractured
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Boehner is a decent man in a bad job.

Can you imagine Cantor as speaker? That man doesn't give a flying *&** about anyone but his financiers on Wall Street. If there was a poster child for Bought Politician, he'd be on it.
 
obvious Child said:
Boehner is a decent man in a bad job.

Can you imagine Cantor as speaker? That man doesn't give a flying *&** about anyone but his financiers on Wall Street. If there was a poster child for Bought Politician, he'd be on it.
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I cant stand cantor..he reeks of phony...boehner I agree isnt a bad guy and he tried to be reasonable the extremists wont allow it...boehner didnt fail... I dont think anyone would have been successful in his position.
 
lpast said:
I cant stand cantor..he reeks of phony...boehner I agree isnt a bad guy and he tried to be reasonable the extremists wont allow it...boehner didnt fail... I dont think anyone would have been successful in his position.
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Before the Tea Party Hijacking of the Republican Primaries, Boehner was relatively moderate, and even a leftist when you look at how far the GOP has moved to the right in the past 5 years.

Electing Cantor as Speaker would be definitive proof the GOP doesn't give a **** about the American people.
 
obvious Child said:
Boehner is a decent man in a bad job.

Can you imagine Cantor as speaker? That man doesn't give a flying *&** about anyone but his financiers on Wall Street. If there was a poster child for Bought Politician, he'd be on it.
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Cantor is one of Virginia's biggest embarrassments.
 
obvious Child said:
Before the Tea Party Hijacking of the Republican Primaries, Boehner was relatively moderate, and even a leftist when you look at how far the GOP has moved to the right in the past 5 years.

Electing Cantor as Speaker would be definitive proof the GOP doesn't give a **** about the American people.
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I wouldnt go that far now...I dont know why you even think cantor would be nominated but if he were to be it would be a reflection of what the GOP wants...not that they dont care about americans...they care about the americans that elect them same as democrats do. Two way street ..you and I agree on boehner though, hes a traditional GOP thats being vilified by the far right...the far right is failing and will fall the rest of the way...the two extremes cant rule anymore...americans dont want either of them
 
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