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16 trillion and growing...

Will we reach 20 trillion debt by the end of Obama's second term?

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Kal'Stang

Kal'Stang

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Will we reach 20 trillion debt by the end of Obama's second term? Yes or no?

What should Obama do to stop it from happening?
 
Probably. Tax welfare benefits.
 
Kal'Stang said:
Will we reach 20 trillion debt by the end of Obama's second term? Yes or no?

What should Obama do to stop it from happening?
Click to expand...

Yes.

Become a Republican.
 
We are already at $58 trillion when you combine all the government debt. The Federal debt is a red herring. The real number to look at is total debt. Because that is what our society is trying to support.
 
Kal'Stang said:
What should Obama do to stop it from happening?
Click to expand...

Vote him out of office!

... oh wait... right. That already happened... and didn't happen.
 
It's certainly possible we'll see $20 trillion before January 20, 2017. How much of that will be attributed to the 2008-2016 legislature/president is yet to be seen, as the $6 trillion accrued between 2009-today has been at least mostly blamed on Bush (not the legislature that served during his terms, mind you...but him specifically), which is pretty asinine, considering there have been several costly bills voted on by the 2009 - ?? legislature and signed by Obama that have contributed, and debt ceiling increases voted on by the legislature and signed under Obama's watch which actually allowed that accrual in the first place...but whatever.
 
BTW, if you'll notice that the national debt clock website shows the government debt growing while private sector debt is shrinking (housing and credit card, not school). This is actually normal during a recession. People realize they need money for a rainy day, so they pay off debt, forgo new debt and put money into savings.
 
Based on a rough calculation for the national debt clock, about $100'000 is being tacked on every 6 seconds, that's ABOUT $16'666 a second. ABOUT that much. Seeing as you guys have $3.87 trillion left to go to $20 trillion. To get to $20 trillion in four years, the rate the national debt is going up will effectively have to double to around $30'000.

While I have no doubt it could happen, it seems unlikely. You guys really have to stop being all doom and gloom.
 
Juiposa said:
Based on a rough calculation for the national debt clock, about $100'000 is being tacked on every 6 seconds, that's ABOUT $16'666 a second. ABOUT that much. Seeing as you guys have $3.87 trillion left to go to $20 trillion. To get to $20 trillion in four years, the rate the national debt is going up will effectively have to double to around $30'000.

While I have no doubt it could happen, it seems unlikely. You guys really have to stop being all doom and gloom.
Click to expand...

Doom and gloom or realistic? I just don't see the Republicans budging on defense spending or taxes and I don't see Obama budging on social spending and taxes, so here we are...stuck with a government driving us off the cliff and no one willing to compromise.
 
ksu_aviator said:
Doom and gloom or realistic? I just don't see the Republicans budging on defense spending or taxes and I don't see Obama budging on social spending and taxes, so here we are...stuck with a government driving us off the cliff and no one willing to compromise.
Click to expand...

Realism, it seems in your case. Many people just run about failing their arms of how "screwed we are," with no real supporting explanations. In this case, many people will say the US gov't will reach $20 trillion because they all ready have it in their minds that the US is jumping off a cliff, and anything adding to that idea must be true!

It's nice to see you have a reason to believe the problem will not be solved, with all this paritisan idiocy, but most don't have a reason other than either collective hate for Obama or general irrationality.
.
 
Juiposa said:
Based on a rough calculation for the national debt clock, about $100'000 is being tacked on every 6 seconds, that's ABOUT $16'666 a second. ABOUT that much. Seeing as you guys have $3.87 trillion left to go to $20 trillion. To get to $20 trillion in four years, the rate the national debt is going up will effectively have to double to around $30'000.

While I have no doubt it could happen, it seems unlikely. You guys really have to stop being all doom and gloom.
Click to expand...

I come up with:

86,400 seconds in a 24-hour day
1,460 days from Jan 1 2013 to Dec 31 2016 (not accounting for leap year)
126,144,000 total seconds
@ $16,666 per second, that comes to $2,102,315,904,000

Starting at $16,275,194,500,000 and adding 2,102,315,904,000 you end up with $18,377,510,404,000.

That does not take into account the impending rise in SS or government expenditures related to a rise in Medicare recipients as the boomers retire over the next few years. It also does not take into account the government costs of ACA.

From 2010-2019, the CBO projects a budget deficit totalling over $7 trillion (link here: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/105xx/doc10521/08-25-budgetupdate.pdf). If that holds true, we're already at about $4.5 trillion, leaving about $2.5 trillion remaining. If they're correct, the calculations above seem right.

Then again, that assumes that all of the tax cuts are extended, and assumes the economy grows at a much faster rate than it is currently growing...but keep in mind that growth projections for the economy have been almost exclusively downgraded over the last 18 months.
 
tessaesque said:
I come up with:

86,400 seconds in a 24-hour day
1,460 days from Jan 1 2013 to Dec 31 2016 (not accounting for leap year)
126,144,000 total seconds
@ $16,666 per second, that comes to $2,102,315,904,000

Starting at $16,275,194,500,000 and adding 2,102,315,904,000 you end up with $18,377,510,404,000.

That does not take into account the impending rise in SS or government expenditures related to a rise in Medicare recipients as the boomers retire over the next few years. It also does not take into account the government costs of ACA.

From 2010-2019, the CBO projects a budget deficit totalling over $7 trillion (link here: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/105xx/doc10521/08-25-budgetupdate.pdf). If that holds true, we're already at about $4.5 trillion, leaving about $2.5 trillion remaining. If they're correct, the calculations above seem right.

Then again, that assumes that all of the tax cuts are extended, and assumes the economy grows at a much faster rate than it is currently growing...but keep in mind that growth projections for the economy have been almost exclusively downgraded over the last 18 months.
Click to expand...

Indeed, that's why I tried to stress that my calcs were approximations, and not binding answers. I didn't want any pundits jumping down my throat.
 
Kal'Stang said:
Will we reach 20 trillion debt by the end of Obama's second term? Yes or no?

What should Obama do to stop it from happening?
Click to expand...

hopefully, he'll be able to phase in some tax increases and some spending cuts. can't do it without congress, though.

i'm liking the cap on deductions idea, and i think it's a good idea to let the rates revert back to 1990s levels. also, we need to completely rethink America's balance between our global role and our domestic investment.
 
Current trends suggest that we will exceed 20 Trillion by 2016, and probably more than that.
 
Kal'Stang said:
Will we reach 20 trillion debt by the end of Obama's second term? Yes or no?

What should Obama do to stop it from happening?
Click to expand...
The conservatives tell us that this event (excessive debt) is bad..Should we believe them ?
I, for one, ignore them as I feel that too much of their thinking is based on fear and ignorance.
So, I have no idea what this debt really is.
Right after WW2, we must have had a huge debt....but this, turned out to be "nothing".
Why?
 
Kal'Stang said:
Will we reach 20 trillion debt by the end of Obama's second term? Yes or no?

What should Obama do to stop it from happening?
Click to expand...

Obama should stop foreign aid, stop funding NASA, close over seas bases, reduce military spending, maybe raise the age for social security, eliminate overlapping agencies, let the states take control over the national parks, eliminate long term benefits for elected officials, search for other **** that can be cut, reduce the government spending to just military, border patrol, FBI, national emergencies and a few other things.If that still doesn't eliminate the debt and only then should he raise taxes with expiration dates and stipulations that they can't use that extra tax dollars for anything other than paying off the debt.




After all that is done they should pass a balanced budget amendment with the following stipulations(working progress)-


1.There must be a spending cap based on the previous year's collections that is 90% of the previous years revenue collection and the rest going to a rainy day fund.

2.The rainy day fund is for severe natural disasters or if another nation attacks us or declares war on us.
That rainy day has the following stipulations-
A.It will be illegal to use that rainy day fund for anything else other than war declared on us,way because another country attacks ours or severe natural disaster.​
b.Trying to divert or use rainy day funding for things other than what the rainy day fund is for will result in a seven year prison sentence and a permanent ban on serving in a elected or appointed office.​

3.Tax increases will only be temperately increased only in the event the rainy day fund is exhausted and will revert to levels of the time this amendment was enacted.This extra revenue will only go towards paying off the debt due to national emergency such as war declared on us, war because another nation attacked us without declaring war or because of a several natural disaster. Extra revenue because of emergency taxes will not be counted in the previous year's collection and will be subtracted from it in order to not inflate future spending.
 
jamesrage said:
Obama should stop foreign aid, stop funding NASA, close over seas bases, reduce military spending, maybe raise the age for social security, eliminate overlapping agencies, let the states take control over the national parks, eliminate long term benefits for elected officials, search for other **** that can be cut, reduce the government spending to just military, border patrol, FBI, national emergencies and a few other things.If that still doesn't eliminate the debt and only then should he raise taxes with expiration dates and stipulations that they can't use that extra tax dollars for anything other than paying off the debt.




After all that is done they should pass a balanced budget amendment with the following stipulations(working progress)-


1.There must be a spending cap based on the previous year's collections that is 90% of the previous years revenue collection and the rest going to a rainy day fund.

2.The rainy day fund is for severe natural disasters or if another nation attacks us or declares war on us.
That rainy day has the following stipulations-
A.It will be illegal to use that rainy day fund for anything else other than war declared on us,way because another country attacks ours or severe natural disaster.​
b.Trying to divert or use rainy day funding for things other than what the rainy day fund is for will result in a seven year prison sentence and a permanent ban on serving in a elected or appointed office.​

3.Tax increases will only be temperately increased only in the event the rainy day fund is exhausted and will revert to levels of the time this amendment was enacted.This extra revenue will only go toward paying off the debt due to national emergency such as war declared on us, war because another nation attacked us without declaring war or because of a several natural disaster. Extra revenue because of emergency taxes will not be counted in the previous year's collection and will be subtracted from it in order to not inflate future spending.
Click to expand...


So many good ideas, which I agree with yet, and from a "conservative".....
Yes, the social security eligibility age must (for a great many) be increased to 67...NOT for coal miners(one example) of course..
 
Last edited:
jamesrage said:
Obama should stop foreign aid, stop funding NASA, close over seas bases, reduce military spending, maybe raise the age for social security, eliminate overlapping agencies, let the states take control over the national parks, eliminate long term benefits for elected officials, search for other **** that can be cut, reduce the government spending to just military, border patrol, FBI, national emergencies and a few other things.If that still doesn't eliminate the debt and only then should he raise taxes with expiration dates and stipulations that they can't use that extra tax dollars for anything other than paying off the debt.




After all that is done they should pass a balanced budget amendment with the following stipulations(working progress)-


1.There must be a spending cap based on the previous year's collections that is 90% of the previous years revenue collection and the rest going to a rainy day fund.

2.The rainy day fund is for severe natural disasters or if another nation attacks us or declares war on us.
That rainy day has the following stipulations-
A.It will be illegal to use that rainy day fund for anything else other than war declared on us,way because another country attacks ours or severe natural disaster.​
b.Trying to divert or use rainy day funding for things other than what the rainy day fund is for will result in a seven year prison sentence and a permanent ban on serving in a elected or appointed office.​

3.Tax increases will only be temperately increased only in the event the rainy day fund is exhausted and will revert to levels of the time this amendment was enacted.This extra revenue will only go towards paying off the debt due to national emergency such as war declared on us, war because another nation attacked us without declaring war or because of a several natural disaster. Extra revenue because of emergency taxes will not be counted in the previous year's collection and will be subtracted from it in order to not inflate future spending.
Click to expand...

I can see the possibility that Republicans would enact such measures...the Democrats?...no way.

Anyway, I don't think your suggestions will be enough...but it's a good start.
 
From this article:
The Republican Party does not want you to know these things about the federal budget deficit. <SNIP>

1.
The Deficit Has Grown Mostly Because Of The Recession
The deficit has ballooned not because of specific spending measures, but because of the recession. The deficit more than doubled between 2008 and 2009, as the economy was in free fall, since laid-off workers paid less in taxes and needed more benefits. The deficit then shrank in 2010 and 2011.

2.
The Stimulus Cost Much Less Than Bush's Wars, Tax Cuts
Republicans frequently have blamed the $787 billion stimulus for the national debt, but, when all government spending is taken into account, the stimulus frankly wasn't that big. In contrast, the U.S. will have spent nearly $4 trillion on wars in the Middle East by the time those conflicts end, according to a recent report by Brown University. The Bush tax cuts have cost nearly $1.3 trillion over 10 years.

3.
The Deficit Grew Under George W. Bush
When George W. Bush took office, the federal government was running a surplus of $86 billion. When he left, that had turned into a $642 billion deficit.

4.

The deficit Is Shrinking
Last year's federal budget deficit was 12 percent lower than in 2009, according to the Office of Management and Budget.The deficit is projected to shrink even more over the next several years.

5.
Investors Are Paying Us To Borrow Money
The interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is negative, according to the Treasury Department. Investors are even paying us for 30-year Treasury bonds, when adjusted for inflation.

6.
Investors Are Not Running Away
Conservative commentators have been warning for years that investors will run away from Treasury bonds because of the national debt. So far it's not happening. Interest rates on Treasury bonds continue to hover at historic lows.

7.
Health Care Reform Reduces The Deficit
Republicans have blasted the Affordable Care Act as "budget-busting." But health care reform actually reduces the deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

8.
The U.S. Is Borrowing Less From China
The U.S. government is borrowing much less from foreign countries than before the recession, according to government data cited by Paul Krugman. That is because the U.S. private sector is financing our bigger deficits.

9.
We Spend A Lot On Defense
Defense spending constituted 20 percent of federal spending last year, or $718 billion, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. This adds up to 41 percent of the world's defense spending, according to Bloomberg TV anchor Adam Johnson. Mitt Romney has vowed to not cut defense spending if elected president.

10.
We Spend A Lot On Health Care
Health insurance, including Medicare and Medicaid, constituted 21 percent of federal spending last year. In contrast, education constituted 2 percent of federal spending. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have promised not to change Medicare for Americans age 55 and older.

11.
Republicans May Want Large Deficits For Now
The federal budget deficit ballooned under Ronald Reagan, and that may be just the way Republicans like it. Some Republican thinkers have proposed "starving the beast": that is, cutting taxes in order to use larger deficits to justify spending cuts later. Since Republicans ultimately want lower taxes and a smaller government, what better way is there to cut spending than to make it look urgent and necessary?
Click to expand...

read more;

11 Things The GOP Doesn't Want You To Know About The Deficit
 
Mycroft said:
Become a Republican.
Click to expand...


Because under Reagan and Bush and Bush, that deficit shrank down to nothing! NOT!


1) Yes
2) Stop if from reaching 20 Trillion? Not much. I'll settle for it staying at 16, but that won't happen either.
 
rocket88 said:
That wouldn't help. Unless Joe Biden has a deficit reduction plan.
Click to expand...
Good point. Biden at least "might" entertain other ideas. Okay, enough with those delusions, you're right, we won't have a president and congress in cooperation so it's gridlock and debt increases.

Honestly, right now everything needs to be audited and leaned down. Spending must be addressed before anything, then the tax code needs to be structured more for efficiency than for loopholes, finally a very temporary tax increase at the back end. Those three things won't eliminate the debt but at least get it down to manageability.
 
If the GOP will agree to raising taxes to Clinton levels, and if the Democrats will agree to cutting 300 billion from annual budgets, and if most of the savings is allocated to the debt payment, then this can be averted.
 
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