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polls

which is a better way to understand the polls?

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Slartibartfast

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in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

other?
 
Rasmussen does the most accurate and stable polling...
 
Calvincoolidge said:
Rasmussen does the most accurate and stable polling...
Click to expand...

To answer the OP question: I read and trust Nate Silver and he is the most authoritative and reliable at putting all these numbers together.

Rasmussen is a known outlier who intentionally tilts his methods to produce more favorable results toward Republicans. As the election day gets closer, he becomes lss of an outlier so he can claim to be accurate. The only thing that measures that accuracy is the election day results compared to his final poll results. Far too many people are willing to ignore the fact that he was an outlier for months and months and they do NOT want to even think about why because that would upset their glee with the numbers Ras gives them.
 
Calvincoolidge said:
Rasmussen does the most accurate and stable polling...
Click to expand...

Rasmussen wasn't the most accurate in the last Presidential election. He underestimated Obama 52/46 while CNN and Ipsos nailed it 53/46.
 
Being right in one presidential election really shouldn't make or break any one as being elite in the polling arena, I wouldn't think. Am I wrong? Without doing my own research, which I realize that I could (probably should), which polling source has been most accurate over a period of say 20 years or so?
 
megaprogman said:
in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

other?
Click to expand...
A combo of specific polling outfits and Nate Silver.
 
RCP and Nate Silver for when I am feeling lazy. Probably two of the best.
 
Polls like tests are snapshots in time. 5 minutes later they don't mean anything. The survey group is too small and not spread out over a large enough area. I don't trust them and don't like them
 
megaprogman said:
in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

other?
Click to expand...

I put a great deal of faith in Gallup. Especially since, when Obama first started losing momentum, the White House invited one of the pollsters to the White House to explain their polling methodology. ;)

This is a good post. It reminds me that jumping all over the place looking at everyone's polling data probably isn't the best way to get a feel for what's going on. Stick with one, Or maybe two. Assuming their methodology is the same from poll to poll, that probably gives the clearest picture.
 
The best way to understand polls is to ignore them. Secondly why are we having a poll about polls.
 
haymarket said:
To answer the OP question: I read and trust Nate Silver and he is the most authoritative and reliable at putting all these numbers together.

Rasmussen is a known outlier who intentionally tilts his methods to produce more favorable results toward Republicans. As the election day gets closer, he becomes lss of an outlier so he can claim to be accurate. The only thing that measures that accuracy is the election day results compared to his final poll results. Far too many people are willing to ignore the fact that he was an outlier for months and months and they do NOT want to even think about why because that would upset their glee with the numbers Ras gives them.
Click to expand...



Was he an outlier because he was inaccurate or because he was accurate and the others came to him?
 
Numeros said:
Rasmussen wasn't the most accurate in the last Presidential election. He underestimated Obama 52/46 while CNN and Ipsos nailed it 53/46.
Click to expand...


Margin of error?
 
code1211 said:
Margin of error?
Click to expand...

seriously. If the pollster was 1% off, that very darned good and is very much to their credit. This is not a valid criticism of rasmussen.
 
code1211 said:
Was he an outlier because he was inaccurate or because he was accurate and the others came to him?
Click to expand...

Perhaps I was not clear. Rasmussen is well known in the business for being an outlier. The earlier in the campaign - the less reliable he is. As election day nears, his numbers get closer to reality and by election day he is pretty much within the normal margin of error.

Within the business of electioneering - which is what I am in - he has the reputation of being a GOP promoter and will bend his survey work accordingly.
 
People always rail against polls that go against what they believe or want to believe...but the truth is polling is relatively accurate and has been for a long time. Rarely are the polls waaaaaaaaaaaaay off...more often then not a combination of polls usually gives fairly accurate incite.
Rasmussen I believe was very fairminded at one time...but it has now morphed to the right.
 
There is very little news about the campaigns or candidates themselves, only endless news about the polls. I'd like to see polls outlawed.
 
megaprogman said:
in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

other?
Click to expand...

I prefer polling aggregates like RCP and think Nate Silver does a good job. Looking at individual pollsters doesn't give as complete a picture.
 
when I care enough to look, I usually check out sites that compile all of the majors. I do admit, though, that I give intrade a little weight, because that's people betting real money.

I suppose when it comes down to it, the poll that really matters will be taken a week from Tuesday.
 
megaprogman said:
in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

other?
Click to expand...

I tend to go with intrade.
It's real people putting their money where their mouth is.

Not fleeting opinion polling.
 
megaprogman said:
seriously. If the pollster was 1% off, that very darned good and is very much to their credit. This is not a valid criticism of rasmussen.
Click to expand...



A 1% difference in a poll with a 3% margin of error is no difference.
 
haymarket said:
Perhaps I was not clear. Rasmussen is well known in the business for being an outlier. The earlier in the campaign - the less reliable he is. As election day nears, his numbers get closer to reality and by election day he is pretty much within the normal margin of error.

Within the business of electioneering - which is what I am in - he has the reputation of being a GOP promoter and will bend his survey work accordingly.
Click to expand...




Within your business you must have data to support this.

Link?
 
code1211 said:
Within your business you must have data to support this.

Link?
Click to expand...

try this to begin with

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/06/a-nonpartisan-statistical-approach-to-rasmussen-data/

My statement was to relate the perception that people within the political consultant industry have about Rasmussen. Nobody - on any side of the political wars - NOBODY can say if a poll taken far out from an election date is accurate or not accurate. That is an impossibility. So you are asking for evidence which is impossible for anyone to get regardless of what side of the issue they are on. It is impossible to gather any verifiable data to show that a poll issued two months or two weeks before an election is wrong. As you well know, the test of a polls accuracy is how it does compared to the actual election results. However, when somebody like Rasmussen is noticeably different by the vast majority of polls and that difference is almost always in the favor of the conservative or Republican candidate or position, it makes a statement. And within the world of political consultants, Rasmussen is known as "in the bag" for the GOP and an organization which will carefully mold its methodologies and skew its results accordingly.

this should help on the perception issue that I talked about

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/75161/the-rasmussen-problem

Rasmussen polling occupies an odd place in the political culture. In the conservative world, it is the gold standard. If you go to a conservative set on basically any random day, you'll see somebody touting a Rasmussen poll. Here is John McCormack at the Weekly Standard touting a poll showing huge support to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Here is Peter Wehner at Commentary doing the same. Rasmussen frequently asks unusual polling questions that produce results almost certainly calculated to demonstrate public support for the conservative position. (Here's one example of a loaded Rasmussen question.) Rasmussen has become a right-wing celebrity. He's the author of a conservative book. This fall he is a featured guest on National Review's cruise, along with other conservative luminaries.

Part of Rasmussen's celebrity status derives from the fact that even his polls on commonly-asked questions skew strongly toward the conservative position.
Click to expand...

this article has an excellent chart which clearly shows the outlier aspect of Rasmussen

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/political-polls-data-analysis-and-outliers-discuss/

Of course, some will tell us that Rasmussen could have been correct and every other one of those on that chart could have been wrong. Which reminds me of the proud mother at the parade who noticed that her son in the marching band was the only one not in synch marching with the others as he went by as a few giggled noticing his error. Not to be discouraged, the proud mother puffed out her ample bosom and loudly pontificated to the crowd

"everybody is out of step but my Johnnie!"
 
Last edited:
haymarket said:
try this to begin with

A nonpartisan statistical approach to Rasmussen data

My statement was to relate the perception that people within the political consultant industry have about Rasmussen. Nobody - on any side of the political wars - NOBODY can say if a poll taken far out from an election date is accurate or not accurate. That is an impossibility. So you are asking for evidence which is impossible for anyone to get regardless of what side of the issue they are on. It is impossible to gather any verifiable data to show that a poll issued two months or two weeks before an election is wrong. As you well know, the test of a polls accuracy is how it does compared to the actual election results. However, when somebody like Rasmussen is noticeably different by the vast majority of polls and that difference is almost always in the favor of the conservative or Republican candidate or position, it makes a statement. And within the world of political consultants, Rasmussen is known as "in the bag" for the GOP and an organization which will carefully mold its methodologies and skew its results accordingly.

this should help on the perception issue that I talked about

The Rasmussen Problem | The New Republic



this article has an excellent chart which clearly shows the outlier aspect of Rasmussen

Political Polls, Data Analysis and Outliers: Discuss | The Big Picture

Of course, some will tell us that Rasmussen could have been correct and every other one of those on that chart could have been wrong. Which reminds me of the proud mother at the parade who noticed that her son in the marching band was the only one not in synch marching with the others as he went by as a few giggled noticing his error. Not to be discouraged, the proud mother puffed out her ample bosom and loudly pontificated to the crowd

"everybody is out of step but my Johnnie!"
Click to expand...



You said that your business has something to do with gauging opinion.

I expected that you would produce some industry standards or industry revelations showing that Rasmussen was more wrong the further from the election the poll was published and less wrong as the election approached.

What you have shown is that Rasmussen was different from the other polls. We all know this. My impression has always been that the other polls do what you say Rasmussen does which is skew toward the actual result as the finish line approaches.

There is one link you show in which Rasmussen has Romney +2 and various of the others show Obama +2 or +3. While this is within the MOE and only the one that shows Obama +6 is the outlier, All of the others are now moving toward where Rasmussen was.

Do you have industry data that clearly shows that Rasmussen polls move to where the others are rather showing that all of the others move to where Rasmussen is.
 
code1211 said:
You said that your business has something to do with gauging opinion.

I expected that you would produce some industry standards or industry revelations showing that Rasmussen was more wrong the further from the election the poll was published and less wrong as the election approached.

What you have shown is that Rasmussen was different from the other polls. We all know this. My impression has always been that the other polls do what you say Rasmussen does which is skew toward the actual result as the finish line approaches.

There is one link you show in which Rasmussen has Romney +2 and various of the others show Obama +2 or +3. While this is within the MOE and only the one that shows Obama +6 is the outlier, All of the others are now moving toward where Rasmussen was.

Do you have industry data that clearly shows that Rasmussen polls move to where the others are rather showing that all of the others move to where Rasmussen is.
Click to expand...

The type of data you ask for has never been done And I suspect it has never been done because it is IMPOSSIBLE to gauge that sort of question to any degree of reliability.

But to answer it another way, is it more logical and more likely that we have dozens of posters moving to Rasmussen as election day nears or is it more likely that Rasmussen is abandoning his advocacy position and is moving to reality so as to not ruin his business and be consistent with the industry wide consensus?

Give an honest answer to that and you have the answer you seek.

Or think of it like this: A forty member marching band goes by as you observe from a city sidewalk. 39 are in step and one is not. Is it more likely that the 39 are marching as they should be or is everybody out of step but Johnny?
 
haymarket said:
The type of data you ask for has never been done And I suspect it has never been done because it is IMPOSSIBLE to gauge that sort of question to any degree of reliability.

But to answer it another way, is it more logical and more likely that we have dozens of posters moving to Rasmussen as election day nears or is it more likely that Rasmussen is abandoning his advocacy position and is moving to reality so as to not ruin his business and be consistent with the industry wide consensus?

Give an honest answer to that and you have the answer you seek.

Or think of it like this: A forty member marching band goes by as you observe from a city sidewalk. 39 are in step and one is not. Is it more likely that the 39 are marching as they should be or is everybody out of step but Johnny?
Click to expand...



You said that you were in the business. I assumed this meant that you had knowledge of the business.

I was mistaken.
 
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