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Are You Optimistic About the Future?

Are You Optimistic About the Future?

  • Yes

    Votes: 2 66.7%

  • No

    Votes: 1 33.3%
  • Total voters
    3
NotEliTanenbaum

NotEliTanenbaum

Member
Joined
Jun 1, 2012
Messages
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33
Location
Southern California
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
I see a number of factors steadily improving. All around the world, life expectancy is going up, the number of children each woman has is decreasing, and people are becoming wealthier. Even Africa grew at a rate faster than that of the West in the last decade. Do you think things will continue to improve?

Also, I'm not sure I understand how to post a poll. If someone could help me with that it'd be wonderful.
 
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NotEliTanenbaum said:
I see a number of factors steadily improving. All around the world, life expectancy is going up, the number of children each woman has is decreasing, and people are becoming wealthier. Even Africa grew at a rate faster than that of the West in the last decade. Do you think things will continue to improve?

Also, I'm not sure I understand how to post a poll. If someone could help me with that it'd be wonderful.
Click to expand...

Yes and no.
It some parts of the world life, health, standard of living, peace, etc will get better. In other parts of the world. No... It wont. It will either stay the same or get worse.
 
Over the next decade? No, definitely not.

Over the next century? Yes, absolutely.
 
NotEliTanenbaum said:
I see a number of factors steadily improving. All around the world, life expectancy is going up, the number of children each woman has is decreasing, and people are becoming wealthier. Even Africa grew at a rate faster than that of the West in the last decade. Do you think things will continue to improve?

Also, I'm not sure I understand how to post a poll. If someone could help me with that it'd be wonderful.
Click to expand...


If there is one absolutely reliable existential constant in life on this planet it is the endless stream of conflicts experienced by its inhabitants.
 
TheDemSocialist said:
Yes and no.
It some parts of the world life, health, standard of living, peace, etc will get better. In other parts of the world. No... It wont. It will either stay the same or get worse.
Click to expand...

That's pretty much what I think too, though I think the long-term trend for the world as a whole is positive.

Rhapsody1447 said:
Over the next decade? No, definitely not.
Click to expand...

Really? I beg to differ. Even WWII didn't do enough damage to disrupt these trends in the 40s. If you think things are going to get worse in the next decade, you have to acknowledge that you're suggesting something worse than WWII is going to happen in that decade.
 
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It would be terrific it things continued to get better economically. As Rhapsody said, in the next decade I don't see how it is possible. Change will come and many things will change IMHO but it's not going to be a cakewalk for a while.
 
Cautiously, yes. We live at a crossroads. I hope we choose the path towards global civilizational advancement. The other choice leads nowhere good fast.
 
I'm undecided. Either we will see total disaster within the next 20 years or so -- economic crash, maybe even a global war, near-apocalyptic conditions. But if that does not happen, yes, I am very optimistic.

And even if it happens, hey, it can certainly only get better when you've hit the bottom, right? ;)
 
German guy said:
I'm undecided. Either we will see total disaster within the next 20 years or so -- economic crash, maybe even a global war, near-apocalyptic conditions. But if that does not happen, yes, I am very optimistic.

And even if it happens, hey, it can certainly only get better when you've hit the bottom, right? ;)
Click to expand...

I don't even think a global war would put an end to the long term trends of rising life expectancy, declining birth rates, declining child mortality, etc (unless it were a nuclear war, obviously). The only things I can see really making us worse off in the long run are an enormous environmental crisis (and it would have to be really bad, as I said earlier, worse than WWII) or a Malthusian catastrophe.
 
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NotEliTanenbaum said:
I don't even think a global war would put an end to the long term trends of rising life expectancy, declining birth rates, declining child mortality, etc (unless it were a nuclear war, obviously). The only things I can see really making us worse off in the long run are an enormous environmental crisis (and it would have to be really bad, as I said earlier, worse than WWII) or a Malthusian catastrophe.
Click to expand...

Probably that's irrational, but I fear the following scenario: Europe doesn't get its act together economically and the euro collapses. The shockwaves reach the US too. This creates massive social unrest, to the degree Europeans once again follow demagogues and turn to extremist left or right wing policies and/or civil war. Maybe left-wing demagogues of some kind gain power in Europe, and/or the governments use massive force to strike down the unrest, up to martial law.

America, in this economic turmoil, no longer has the economic means to support a large military presence in Europe and retreats. Europe is left with next to no capability for self-defense, because European politicians were so smart to disarm everything since 1990 and leave defense to America.

In this chaos, Russia, which has been humiliated by the West/NATO for quite a while already, time and again -- NATO today believes it can afford humiliating Russia, it's fenced in after all, right? -- sees its chance has come and the crazy old elites in military and government start an invasion on Western Europe, to finally break the Western stranglehold. The NATO generals suddenly realize they've been caught with the pants down, as the homefront collapses. Of course, such a war will not pass by without massive use of WMD.

At that point, we can all just join R.E.M. singing "it's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine". ;)

Probably this scenario is merely a worst case scenario -- but I don't believe it is unrealistic.
 
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NotEliTanenbaum said:
I don't even think a global war would put an end to the long term trends of rising life expectancy, declining birth rates, declining child mortality, etc (unless it were a nuclear war, obviously). The only things I can see really making us worse off in the long run are an enormous environmental crisis (and it would have to be really bad, as I said earlier, worse than WWII) or a Malthusian catastrophe.
Click to expand...

All it takes is finite resources, with a growing demand. This is the trend this planet has been on for centuries, and it won't stop at any time soon. People are consumers, and do so with great gusto. Wars and famine no longer serve as natural balancing forces, to any great extent, and the natural tendency of humankind is to take much more than he contributes to his own survival, at the individual level.
 
German guy said:
Probably that's irrational, but I fear the following scenario: Europe doesn't get its act together economically and the euro collapses. The shockwaves reach the US too. This creates massive social unrest, to the degree Europeans once again follow demagogues and turn to extremist left or right wing policies and/or civil war. Maybe left-wing demagogues of some kind gain power in Europe, and/or the governments use massive force to strike down the unrest, up to martial law.

America, in this economic turmoil, no longer has the economic means to support a large military presence in Europe and retreats. Europe is left with next to no capability for self-defense, because European politicians were so smart to disarm everything since 1990 and leave defense to America.

In this chaos, Russia, which has been humiliated by the West/NATO for quite a while already, time and again -- NATO today believes it can afford humiliating Russia, it's fenced in after all, right? -- sees its chance has come and the crazy old elites in military and government start an invasion on Western Europe, to finally break the Western stranglehold. The NATO generals suddenly realize they've been caught with the pants down, as the homefront collapses. Of course, such a war will not pass by without massive use of WMD.

At that point, we can all just join R.E.M. singing "it's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine". ;)

Probably this scenario is merely a worst case scenario -- but I don't believe it is unrealistic.
Click to expand...

That's unrealistic, but even if it were, it's not worse than WWII and the Holocaust (unless of course it got nuclear). And it would have to be worse than both combined to make the world worse off at the end of the decade, as you can see below.

world.gdp.pc.3.jpg

As you can see, the world got richer during the 40s, despite both catastrophes. Likewise, life expectancy also went up during the decade.

le02.gif

lizzie said:
All it takes is finite resources, with a growing demand. This is the trend this planet has been on for centuries, and it won't stop at any time soon. People are consumers, and do so with great gusto. Wars and famine no longer serve as natural balancing forces, to any great extent, and the natural tendency of humankind is to take much more than he contributes to his own survival, at the individual level.
Click to expand...

I am also concerned about the possibility of a Malthusian catastrophe, and there are certainly arguments to be made that there will be one. Fortunately, Malthus has been wrong in the 2 and a half centuries since he was born, and I hope he continues to be wrong. Though I hesitatingly believe he will keep being wrong, you're right that there are reasons for concern.
 
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NotEliTanenbaum said:
That's unrealistic, but even if it were, it's not worse than WWII and the Holocaust (unless of course it got nuclear). And it would have to be worse than both combined to make the world worse off at the end of the decade, as you can see below.

View attachment 67128679

As you can see, the world got richer during the 40s, despite both catastrophes. Likewise, life expectancy also went up during the decade.

View attachment 67128680
Click to expand...

I know now you ARE optimistic! :D

I hope you are right.
 
NotEliTanenbaum said:
Even WWII didn't do enough damage to disrupt these trends in the 40s. If you think things are going to get worse in the next decade, you have to acknowledge that you're suggesting something worse than WWII is going to happen in that decade.
Click to expand...

What makes you think improving living standards are inevitable. That is certanly not true in the past. Sub-saharan life expectancy has dropped.
800px-Life_expectancy_sub_saharan_countries.png


Also, Europe is in big trouble. They are having the problems due to the eurozone, but in the middle of this euro crisis we are forgetting other European problems, such as
- youth who are not able to get into the labout market and are not qualified.
- Immigration of people who mostly end up on the dole. In Europe this is a big problem because many of the new immigrants are belivers in radical islam, and that causes culture clash.
- The rise of the populist left. Which is far right xenophobic positions combined with far left economical positions. If the past is any indicator, that is not a recipe for success.
- Aging, people are not getting enough children. Not enough children means too many old people for every person in working age.

US have many of the same problems. Asia, is not getting enough children at all, and that risk destroying their finances. They seems to be unable to increase their fertility rate. Africa's population is growing out of control, their fertility rate is stuck at high levels in many African countries. After a while, they won't be able to support themselves. So I am not very positive about the future.

However, there is some countries who inspire hope. South Ameirca is doing decently well, and so is China and India. They will bring a lot of people out of poverty.
 
Camlon said:
What makes you think improving living standards are inevitable. That is certanly not true in the past. Sub-saharan life expectancy has dropped.
800px-Life_expectancy_sub_saharan_countries.png


Also, Europe is in big trouble. They are having the problems due to the eurozone, but in the middle of this euro crisis we are forgetting other European problems, such as
- youth who are not able to get into the labout market and are not qualified.
- Immigration of people who mostly end up on the dole. In Europe this is a big problem because many of the new immigrants are belivers in radical islam, and that causes culture clash.
- The rise of the populist left. Which is far right xenophobic positions combined with far left economical positions. If the past is any indicator, that is not a recipe for success.
- Aging, people are not getting enough children. Not enough children means too many old people for every person in working age.

US have many of the same problems. Asia, is not getting enough children at all, and that risk destroying their finances. They seems to be unable to increase their fertility rate. Africa's population is growing out of control, their fertility rate is stuck at high levels in many African countries. After a while, they won't be able to support themselves. So I am not very positive about the future.

However, there is some countries who inspire hope. South Ameirca is doing decently well, and so is China and India. They will bring a lot of people out of poverty.
Click to expand...

The life expectancy of a few Sub-Saharan African countries have dropped, but for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, it has not. When you look at the trend for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole it looks like this. It takes a very small drop from 49.58 to 49.34 over the course of a few years, then begins promptly rising again. Some places were obviously hit very hard, like Botswana, which was previously Africa's fastest growing country. But the life expectancy of most of those countries have been rising lately. All countries face some very hard challenges ahead. But as for the really big, important things, like the world's life expectancy, child mortality and population growth, most have been getting better lately.
 
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NotEliTanenbaum said:
The life expectancy of a few Sub-Saharan African countries have dropped, but for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, it has not. When you look at the trend for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole it looks. It takes a very small drop from 49.58 to 49.34 over the course of a few years, then begins promptly rising again. Some places were obviously hit very hard, like Botswana, which was previously Africa's fastest growing country. But the life expectancy of most of those countries have been rising lately. All countries face some very hard challenges ahead. But as for the really big, important things, like the world's life expectancy, child mortality and population growth, most have been getting better lately.
Click to expand...
Well, that is because sub-Saharan Africa includes countries such as Nigeria who did not get hit by aids. If you look at the countries hit by AIDS, their life expectancy have dropped massively. AIDS can spread further north. Point is, not everything is getting better, so your argument that we always have been getting better is wrong. Of course you decided to change your point to something I don't disagree with. I do agree, generally, things have been getting better.

In the future, that is going to be true for developing countries due to the rise of India, China, South America, and parts of Africa. But the western world (especially Europe, and Japan) is getting worse, and Africa has a ticking population bomb.
 
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Camlon said:
Well, that is because sub-Saharan Africa includes countries such as Nigeria who did not get hit by aids. If you look at the countries hit by AIDS, their life expectancy have dropped massively. AIDS can spread further north. Point is, not everything is getting better, so your argument that we always have been getting better is wrong. Of course you decided to change your point to something I don't disagree with. I do agree, generally, things have been getting better. In the future, that is going to be true for developing countries due to the rise of India, China, South America, and parts of Africa.
Click to expand...

I completely agree that the life expectancies of a few countries that were hit by AIDS have dropped massively, and that not everybody is becoming better off all the time. My original point was that for the world as a whole, things are getting better.

Camlon said:
But the western world (especially Europe, and Japan) is getting worse,
Click to expand...

In Europe and Japan, certainly. But the recession in the United States ended back in 2009, and we've been growing (albeit very slowly) since then. But that's not my point. My point is that for the world as a whole, things are in general getting better.

Camlon said:
...and Africa has a ticking population bomb.
Click to expand...

Possibly, but I'm not so sure.
 
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This is what I think the world will be like, sort of. I also think that governments will become more powerful, more complex and more intrusive to maintain order with billions of richer, longer lived, wasteful consumers.

Its not for me to judge this to be good or bad. Just different.


The Marching Morons Full text of the story at this link

[QUOTE]FROM WIKIPEDIA
"The Marching Morons" is a science fiction story written by Cyril M. Kornbluth, originally published in Galaxy in April 1951. It was included in The Science Fiction Hall of Fame, Volume Two after being voted one of the best novellas up to 1965.
The story is set hundreds of years in the future: the date is 7-B-936. John Barlow, a man from the past put into suspended animation by a freak accident involving a dental drill and anesthesia, is revived in this future. The world seems mad to Barlow until Tinny-Peete explains the Problem of Population: Due to a combination of intelligent people not having children and excessive breeding by less intelligent people, the world is full of morons, with the exception of an elite few who work slavishly to keep order. Barlow, who was a shrewd real estate con man in his day, has a solution to sell to the elite, in exchange for being made World Dictator.[/QUOTE]
 
specklebang said:
This is what I think the world will be like, sort of. I also think that governments will become more powerful, more complex and more intrusive to maintain order with billions of richer, longer lived, wasteful consumers.

Its not for me to judge this to be good or bad. Just different.


The Marching Morons Full text of the story at this link

[QUOTE]FROM WIKIPEDIA
"The Marching Morons" is a science fiction story written by Cyril M. Kornbluth, originally published in Galaxy in April 1951. It was included in The Science Fiction Hall of Fame, Volume Two after being voted one of the best novellas up to 1965.
The story is set hundreds of years in the future: the date is 7-B-936. John Barlow, a man from the past put into suspended animation by a freak accident involving a dental drill and anesthesia, is revived in this future. The world seems mad to Barlow until Tinny-Peete explains the Problem of Population: Due to a combination of intelligent people not having children and excessive breeding by less intelligent people, the world is full of morons, with the exception of an elite few who work slavishly to keep order. Barlow, who was a shrewd real estate con man in his day, has a solution to sell to the elite, in exchange for being made World Dictator.
Click to expand...


The idea behind "The Marching Morons," is interesting, but I think a lot of geneticists would not agree that the idea presented in the story is likely to become of problem.
 
I am indifferent on the future. My future is solely focused on my daughter, my wife, and being better than as many people as possible. Making sure I prepare my daughter to lead a life far better than my own. Everything else is just a bonus to me. As for the rest of the world's problems I am mostly what you would call a jingoist and nationalist I guess, I care more about what happens to my country and it's people than others. If those other countries are directly linked to my countries well being of course I will care for what happens to them, but if it does not directly effect my country, I could really care less. I have to many things to worry about already.
 
Unless we all sit down on our butts and start living within our means (what the local land and climate provide), we will see no light in the tunnel, except may that other tunnel (the one that you see after you die ;) ).
Enough of this globalistic bs! Enough of those cargo ships that transport steel from USA to China and back steel from China to USA. Enough of food that travels 1000 miles to the table. Enough of those 40 miles commutes to work. Enough of this waste and waste and waste.
 
Oh, I don't know. I have a sense that TV has dumbed down this world over the decades I've been around. Of course, thats may perception and therefore a long way from being a fact.

I think the Marching Morons (and the companion story The Little Black Bag) were the inspiration for the film Idiocracy and for some reason, that film scared me because it seemed so possible.

NotEliTanenbaum said:
[/B]

The idea behind "The Marching Morons," is interesting, but I think a lot of geneticists would not agree that the idea presented in the story is likely to become of problem.
Click to expand...
 
NotEliTanenbaum said:
I see a number of factors steadily improving. All around the world, life expectancy is going up, the number of children each woman has is decreasing, and people are becoming wealthier. Even Africa grew at a rate faster than that of the West in the last decade. Do you think things will continue to improve?

Also, I'm not sure I understand how to post a poll. If someone could help me with that it'd be wonderful.
Click to expand...

I think most of those steady improvements apply only to a smaller amount of the population for them to afford. So no - I'm not all that optimistic about the future.
 
No. Though I'm rarely optimistic about much of anything. I'm a very pessimistic person.
 
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