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Lately, I've had a lot of arguments with people both on this forum and in real life over which of the two Republican frontrunners have the best chance to beat Obama. Personally, I think Romney has a much better shot at beating Obama. Here are my reasons.
-Gingrich's favorabilty ratings from polls in January give him an average of -28.5% nationwide. Romney is at a -3%.
Gingrich favorablity
Romney favorability
- Obama leads Romney by 1.9%. He leads Gingrich by 10.7%.
Obama vs GOP field
- Romney has led Obama in Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada. Gingrich has trailed a president with underwater approval ratings in South Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas, South Carolina, and has not led in a single poll of any swing state, this election cycle. (Except for one Ohio poll by a single point. Which, when polled next month by the same pollster had changed into a fourteen point deficit.
Statewide General Election Polling
- 58% of Florida's voters have an unfavorable opinion of Gingrich (-29% overall rating), despite having campaigned there heavily this past week. Also a ridiculous 70% of independents have an unfavorable view of him. (a -51% rating!). Romney had +1% favorability among independents, and a +7% overall.
Florida poll
- Romney's biggest nonpolitical baggage is that he's rich. Gingrich has spent his whole life creating scandals that the media and Democrats can throw at him through the general election. He's also rich.
- Romney could keep the election narrative as a referendum on Obama. Gingrich has the dangerous possibility of making the election about himself.
- Romney has a geographical advantage. Having legacy in Michigan and New Hampshire is extremely important for a GOP candidate who wants to win.
- Gingrich may be a strong debater, but Obama would be foolish to agree to anymore than the regular three debates. These debates do not usually have much of an impact on the results of the election. Since 1960, only three outcomes were significantly altered by the debates. (1960, 1980, and possibly 1976, though Ford probably would have lost anyway.) None of them had as much impact as Gingrich would need to overcome his deficit.
- One thing that kept coming up was Gingrich's parallel to Reagan in 1980. Just remember that Gingrich is about 20% more unpopular than Reagan was and Obama is 12-15% more popular than Carter. And as far as we know, there is no John Anderson to siphon votes away from Obama.
For these reasons I believe Gingrich cannot win if nominated, unless Obama falters significantly, (unlikely because if there's one thing we know he's good at, it's campaigning), or if Gingrich has some miraculous debate performance far outpacing any historical precedent.
However, I may be alone with the liberals in thinking this, which is why I created this poll. So, please vote and give your explanations below.
-Gingrich's favorabilty ratings from polls in January give him an average of -28.5% nationwide. Romney is at a -3%.
Gingrich favorablity
Romney favorability
- Obama leads Romney by 1.9%. He leads Gingrich by 10.7%.
Obama vs GOP field
- Romney has led Obama in Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada. Gingrich has trailed a president with underwater approval ratings in South Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas, South Carolina, and has not led in a single poll of any swing state, this election cycle. (Except for one Ohio poll by a single point. Which, when polled next month by the same pollster had changed into a fourteen point deficit.
Statewide General Election Polling
- 58% of Florida's voters have an unfavorable opinion of Gingrich (-29% overall rating), despite having campaigned there heavily this past week. Also a ridiculous 70% of independents have an unfavorable view of him. (a -51% rating!). Romney had +1% favorability among independents, and a +7% overall.
Florida poll
- Romney's biggest nonpolitical baggage is that he's rich. Gingrich has spent his whole life creating scandals that the media and Democrats can throw at him through the general election. He's also rich.
- Romney could keep the election narrative as a referendum on Obama. Gingrich has the dangerous possibility of making the election about himself.
- Romney has a geographical advantage. Having legacy in Michigan and New Hampshire is extremely important for a GOP candidate who wants to win.
- Gingrich may be a strong debater, but Obama would be foolish to agree to anymore than the regular three debates. These debates do not usually have much of an impact on the results of the election. Since 1960, only three outcomes were significantly altered by the debates. (1960, 1980, and possibly 1976, though Ford probably would have lost anyway.) None of them had as much impact as Gingrich would need to overcome his deficit.
- One thing that kept coming up was Gingrich's parallel to Reagan in 1980. Just remember that Gingrich is about 20% more unpopular than Reagan was and Obama is 12-15% more popular than Carter. And as far as we know, there is no John Anderson to siphon votes away from Obama.
For these reasons I believe Gingrich cannot win if nominated, unless Obama falters significantly, (unlikely because if there's one thing we know he's good at, it's campaigning), or if Gingrich has some miraculous debate performance far outpacing any historical precedent.
However, I may be alone with the liberals in thinking this, which is why I created this poll. So, please vote and give your explanations below.
