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Romney will be the nominee

Romney Will Be The GOP Presidential Nominee


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While I think he will be, I also point out that 4 years ago at this point we all knew Clinton was going to win the nomination. I really think the route to winning is starting to change some and the conventional wisdom has not yet caught up, so I am very hesitant to say firmly that any person is going to win the nomination.
 
I think Romey's chances are about 90%, so I went with your absolute 100% choice.
 
I think he will. Doesn't seem like there are any anti romneys left.
 
I do believe that Romney will be the nominee, but a 100% confidence is hard to say. Almost anything can happen in politics, he may forget his last name at the next debate. Colin Powell said on Piers last night that he wasn't sure that we have even seen all the candidates come out yet for the GOP. There is no sure thing in politics.
 
Interesting poll numbers, take them as you will.

Insider Advantage poll(I know nothing of them).

Poll from the 8th, in Iowa: Cain 24, Romney 22
Poll from the 3rd, in Iowa: Cain 30, Romney 15

Poll from the 8th, in South Carolina: Cain 26, Gingrich 19, Romney 16
Poll from Oct 16, in South Carolina: Cain 32, Romney 16 Gingrich 8

Edit to add: I mention these as the most recent polls added to RCP and relevant.
 
Romney will be the nominee and he will beat Obama. I just saw a poll that Gingrich is now ahead of Cain in the polls and is second only behind Romney. I like Gingrich and he is my first choice for the nomination. However, I think Romney would do better in the general election so I think he is who I will vote for in the primary. We need Obama out of office or we will have to wait 4 more years until recovery is even a possibility. If Obama stays in office for 4 more years, he will add over 12 trillion to the debt in 8yrs if he spends at the same pace. That is a disgusting amount of money and he needs to be defeated
 
Only if a bunch of liberals register as republicans will Romney win the nomination.
 
I think Romney will largely win by default. Cain's sexual allegations are a drag on him. Perry is really fumbling the whole thing. Bachmann's a lunatic. Paul doesn't appeal to enough of the base. Nobody cares about Santorum, Huntsman, or anyone else.

He also has the best chance of beating Obama. Eventually, Republicans will get smart and realize that what they really want is no Obama.
 
I think Romney will largely win by default. Cain's sexual allegations are a drag on him. Perry is really fumbling the whole thing. Bachmann's a lunatic. Paul doesn't appeal to enough of the base. Nobody cares about Santorum, Huntsman, or anyone else.

He also has the best chance of beating Obama. Eventually, Republicans will get smart and realize that what they really want is no Obama.

Then that would leave Romney out of the picture.
 
Only if a bunch of liberals register as republicans will Romney win the nomination.

Who among those at the debates now do you really believe will take the nomination if not Romney?
 
Who among those at the debates now do you really believe will take the nomination if not Romney?

Herman Cain. He doesn't have a political history that betrays what he claims to believe. A handful of accusers conveniently coming out now that Cain is more viable doesn't mean squat because they are are seen as politically motivated and baseless .Besides that the allegations were released to early. People and their outrage have a short attention span. Mitt Romney on the other hand is blatantly a liberal masquerading as a conservative, he is the republican version of John Kerry. His political record contradicts the hell out of what he is claiming to believe today. So anything he has said since 07 has to be seen as something he said because he thinks it will help make him become president. This is why he isn't running as Massachusetts liberal Romney, he knows it won't get him elected.
 
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assuming someone else doesn't jump in yes
 
While I think he will be, I also point out that 4 years ago at this point we all knew Clinton was going to win the nomination. I really think the route to winning is starting to change some and the conventional wisdom has not yet caught up, so I am very hesitant to say firmly that any person is going to win the nomination.

Clinton may have been the frontrunner, but she had a serious challenger in Barack Obama, as well as several other respectable fallback candidates who had been on the national political scene for a long time (John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden). Romney may not be any better of a candidate than Hillary Clinton was (and to be fair, she was a pretty damn good candidate)...but Romney has the advantage of running against a field of nobodies and unelectables, whereas Hillary Clinton did not. The Romney camp must be delighted at his good luck to have serious contenders like Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie choosing to sit this one out.

At this point in the last election cycle, I probably would have picked Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, but I could also envision plausible paths to the nomination for several other candidates. At this point I can't envision any path to the Republican nomination for anyone except Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich maybe has an outside shot, but even that is highly unlikely IMO.
 
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Herman Cain. He doesn't have a political history that betrays what he claims to believe. A handful of accusers conveniently coming out now that Cain is more viable doesn't mean squat because they are are seen as politically motivated and baseless .Besides that the allegations were released to early. People and their outrage have a short attention span. Mitt Romney on the other hand is blatantly a liberal masquerading as a conservative, he is the republican version of John Kerry. His political record contradicts the hell out of what he is claiming to believe today. So anything he has said since 07 has to be seen as something he said because he thinks it will help make him become president. This is why he isn't running as Massachusetts liberal Romney, he knows it won't get him elected.

I do agree with you that people have a short attention span. Unless a woman comes forth with a Herman Cain, Jr this will most likely be a speck in the rear view mirror. I do not believe these are baseless accusations but the timing is yes, political. Cain seems to have this propensity for misspeaks and there are probably more speed bumps in his lane.
Where I depart from you is that I just have this feeling Gingrich is going to take it. Time will tell.
 
I'm thinking the polls are reflecting the hearts more than the minds of likely GOP voters at this point. When it counts, I think Romney will be the nominee.
 
Clinton may have been the frontrunner, but she had a serious challenger in Barack Obama, as well as several other respectable fallback candidates who had been on the national political scene for a long time (John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden). Romney may not be any better of a candidate than Hillary Clinton was (and to be fair, she was a pretty damn good candidate)...but Romney has the advantage of running against a field of nobodies and unelectables, whereas Hillary Clinton did not. The Romney camp must be delighted at his good luck to have serious contenders like Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie choosing to sit this one out.

At this point in the last election cycle, I probably would have picked Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, but I could also envision plausible paths to the nomination for several other candidates. At this point I can't envision any path to the Republican nomination for anyone except Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich maybe has an outside shot, but even that is highly unlikely IMO.

Obama was as much a nobody at that time as any one in the republican field now. His one big thing was delivering a speak at the 2004 democratic convention. Outside of that, he was just a junior senator.
 
Some polls now have Gingrich ahead of Cain...If it becomes evident cain cant win and his supporters go to gingrich, romney loses..
Id say its a tossup between Gingrich and romny

If either or wins..its a LOSS for the teaparty BIG TIME...since the start they laughed off Romny and gingrich and McSames and rinos etc etc...
 
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Some polls now have Gingrich ahead of Cain...If it becomes evident cain cant win and his supporters go to gingrich, romney loses..
Id say its a tossup between Gingrich and romny

If either or wins..its a LOSS for the teaparty BIG TIME...since the start they laughed off Romny and gingrich and McSames and rinos etc etc...

Be very careful with those polls. Undecided is the leading candidate in many of them. While I will be watching and talking about the polls, at length and in depth, the reality right now is until the first couple votes happen, I am in the dark as to how it will go.
 
Unless somebody with moderate leanings such as John Huntsman comes up with big support, both political and financial, Romney will almost certainly be the nominee
 
Be very careful with those polls. Undecided is the leading candidate in many of them. While I will be watching and talking about the polls, at length and in depth, the reality right now is until the first couple votes happen, I am in the dark as to how it will go.

I agree with that...but theres no doubt gingrich is moving up and I dont see cain supporters going to romney over gingrich...but for sure its still up in the air...
 
Too many conventional thinkers. That is the way you lose money, because Romney is way overrated in political circles. He has not won by default.

I will say there is a fifty, fifty chance between Gingrich and Romney. Romney may benefit if Gingrich messes up, but if he don't it is going to be a very tough battle for him. Gingrich has a lot of corporate backers, he has support from Fox News, and the debates have calmed down somewhat.

The amount of not-Romney supporters are the problem for Romney. Right now, there are two not-Romney candidates polling at the same level as Mitt Romney. If for instance Herman Cain drops out, where do you think his supporters will go?
 
Cain was a godsend for Gingrich.
Everybody knows Gingrich's history of cheating on wife and divorcing her at her worst moment. But the key word is "history". Our memories are short and we are more concerned about this present revelation of Cain and his sexual exploits. The press isn't hounding Gingrich about all his past exploits.

It is kind of funny in a way as what Gingrich did was probably far worst than Cain's but since Cain started out lying about his events he has came looking worst.
If Gingrich said what he did to his former wife was wrong and he realizes that now and is not going to lie or deny that to the voters he would gain points above Cain who has been caught lying to the voters.
 
While I think he will be, I also point out that 4 years ago at this point we all knew Clinton was going to win the nomination. I really think the route to winning is starting to change some and the conventional wisdom has not yet caught up, so I am very hesitant to say firmly that any person is going to win the nomination.

True, but it is also a lot harder for Republicans given their winner take all in the primary voting. Part of the reason Obama was able to stay in the race was because, even by losing a state race, he still got a large amount of delegate votes.
 
at this point, i'd give him an 85 percent chance of the nomination.
 
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