More than likely Romney, though my predictive powers have lacked this week. Pawlenty has withdrawn as I understand it, so he won't win.
I feel strongly it will be Perry. Of course, I think Romney would have the best chance in the general election, but I don't think the crazy wing of the Republican party are going to let him run.
Old school Republicans can even see that Bachmann is bat**** crazy, so they are not going to support her. Perry appeals to both the crazy wing and the old school Republican wing, so I think he will be the one they go with.
That's my prediction.
To put things in perspective...
McCain is Green
Romney is Yellow
Huckabee is Blue
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...tes)_presidential_primaries_results,_2008.svg
Thanks for that map. I wonder about those McCain states. Did they go for McCain because they preferred him over Romney or because they were thinking "Anyone but Romney."
If the former, then if no better candidate comes along and Romney is heir apparent, then he could sweep those McCain states. If it's the latter, then he's doomed because the same dynamic is likely to be in place in this go-around as in 2008.
I think your latter scenario is most likely and that would mean more would go for Perry it would seem, don't you think?
Thanks for that map. I wonder about those McCain states. Did they go for McCain because they preferred him over Romney or because they were thinking "Anyone but Romney."
If the former, then if no better candidate comes along and Romney is heir apparent, then he could sweep those McCain states. If it's the latter, then he's doomed because the same dynamic is likely to be in place in this go-around as in 2008.
I tried to embed it, but DP said the link was invalid....
I'm not sold on that viewpoint yet. I got a very strong sense in 2008 that McCain got the nomination because he was heir apparent. He was runner-up in 2000 to Bush, he made his peace with Bush, and now it was his turn. Recall that he had a LOT of baggage that made him a difficult choice for Republicans. A LOT. Yet he still got the nomination.
Now Romney is the heir apparent. He's got a lot of baggage too, different baggage but still baggage.
The religious fundamentalist faction of the Republican Party is not happy with the Mormonism issue but if you look at the map that SheWolf linked, the region of the country with the strongest representation of the religious fundamentalists voted for Huckabee. This go around they'll probably vote for "Anyone but Romney" but that still leaves all of those McCain states and I don't have a strong sense of why people voted for McCain.
To put things in perspective...
McCain is Green
Romney is Yellow
Huckabee is Blue
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...tes)_presidential_primaries_results,_2008.svg
Try un-checking the little text block below the URL entry point.
Possibly, though I sense the conservative voters are much more against Romney now than they were against McCain in '08. Unless they dig up more dirt on Perry than is already known, I just can't see a path for Romney to beat Perry during this very tea party charged mood among conservatives.
Perry's vaulted to the top because he's the newest shiny bright thing. That speaks to a sense of dissatisfaction with the current crop of contenders. Maybe Perry does have the appeal and stamina for a long haul contest. I don't know. What I have noticed though is a process where a name is floated and they vault up to the top of the ratings and then they fall.
Romney is getting a lot of establishment backing. Just like McCain last go around. Keep in mind that Republican doesn't mean religious fundamentalist. There are plenty of factions within the Republican tent which effectively neutralize the religious vote.
I wish Huntsman or Paul
I'm guessing Romney or Perry