If the economy doesn't shape up A LOT, his chances of reelection will be solely based on how big a slick-talker he is. There is some chance that this could be enough.
And the defects of his opponent.
When I was a young man, there was a burglary at a pharmacy not too far from my house. Or maybe it was a robbery, I don't recall--but the cops were there is the point. The guy who ran the pharmacy, Wimberly, was a former mayor and a member of the state legislature. So, the police chief himself, Doc Hale, shows up at the scene. The Hales were and prob'ly are still a prominent family--one of them from that same generation was/is a judge. The chief is filmed by the security cameras taking money from the till. The drugstore presses charges. The Chief commits suicide. "I miss Doc" bumper stickers are printed. The drug store is blamed.
Come the next election, Wimberly was going to be on the ballot unopposed. Some resourceful, long-haired, hippy guy who didn't even wear shoes noticed and had his own name put on the ballot too. Mind you this guy, did not have the backing of any party. He was not a known political figure locally. He was going up against someone with all the political connections there were to be had in the city, someone with a proven track record of performance in public office.
On election day, people from our district went to the ballot box, saw Wimberly's name, and chose "the other guy." And thus began the political career of Jim Lendall. Elected because he was not "the guy who killed Doc Hale."
There're a number of political morals to be drawn from that anecdote. But for now, my point is that people sometimes vote against candidates. The negatives of the opponent can be enough sometimes to make the piblic "hold their nose," or "take a chance."
If the GOP wins, it'll be a candidate who is not currently
interrupting with Obama while Obama is making mistakes. This one of the reasons why I don't think Palin and Bachmann are serious contenders. They open their mouths to garner attention thinking that even bad pr is good pr. But at this point all they need to do is keep from looking bad--which they're failing.
A successful GOP candidate would
distancedistinguish themselves from the current troglodyte stereotype that plagues many people associated with the GOP centric PR machine, not embrace it. While there're many people to whom that kind of an image appeals to, it's not something that middle America wants to gamble the farm on atm.
A successful GOP candidate would also present a positive, realistic platform of action. Positive in the sense of being for certain policies and initiatives instead of merely against what has already been. Realistic in the sense of formed in the light that compromise is the reality of all representative governments rather than planks based on ideology and their bumper-sticker appeal.
all
imho
ymmv