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Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

Do you think Obama will be reelected

  • Yes, in a landslide

    Votes: 33 61.1%
  • No, he's going to lose in a landslide.

    Votes: 21 38.9%

  • Total voters
    54

SPC

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The question speaks for itself.
 
Looking at his potential opponents, a definitive yes.

Though not necessarily in a landslide vote.
 
Looking at his potential opponents, a definitive yes.

Though not necessarily in a landslide vote.

My answer on that one is: the debates haven't happened yet. Reagan wasn't supposed to beat Carter either, and then Reagan mopped the floor up with Carter in the debates three weeks before the 1980 election.
 
Looking at his current approval rating I think he could lose. I'm not sure yet, but as it seems it may be 50/50. If the same political winds are active that were blowing back in Nov 2010 I think Obama will definitely lose. I think it's too early to predict things.
 
Depends. Who is he running against, what is the state of the economy, can Obama bring back 2008 Campaign Obama and his supporters?
 
My answer on that one is: the debates haven't happened yet. Reagan wasn't supposed to beat Carter either, and then Reagan mopped the floor up with Carter in the debates three weeks before the 1980 election.

I don't see any potential Reagan's in the GOP field, and the only ones who would have even a chance of winning the independent vote agaisnt Obama aren't going to win the primary because they're too moderate. The field is going to go to some of the more extreme, and outspoken candidates, and those people would alienate most groups outside the right and far right.
 
Um, how many of these threads are we gonna have. :)
 
Bad poll options.

I'm thinking yes, but not in a landslide.
 
Hopefully not. ^_^
 
I think he is guaranteed his 2nd term. A lot of his opponents are either RINOs(Mitt Romney) or damaged goods(Sara Palin). Whether or not it is a landslide depends on who the republicans prop up in order to give Obama his 2nd term.
 
I saw Romney in an interview on tv..Let's just say he doesn't have my vote. haha
 
I think he is guaranteed his 2nd term. A lot of his opponents are either RINOs(Mitt Romney) or damaged goods(Sara Palin). Whether or not it is a landslide depends on who the republicans prop up in order to give Obama his 2nd term.


If the statistics remain consistent, he won't be.

1. No President since 1936 who has had an Unemployment rate of 7.2% or above going into an election year has ever been reelected.
2. No sitting Senator who has ever been elected President has ever been reelected (the first two who were died in office[Harding and Kennedy], however. So far Obama has broken that chain)
3. Very rarely do we have three reelected Presidents in a row. It has only happened twice in American Political History: Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and FDR, Truman, Ike.
 
The GOP field is such a mess that I have a hard time believing any of them can actually get more votes than Obama. It's not necessarily that I think Obama himself is a shoe-in, but the main party opposition is so poor that I think we're going to see a lot of independents and moderate Republicans either going with Obama out of resignation or voting 3rd party in protest.

But, as others have said, it's way, way too early to claim to make a prediction that's accurate. That's just what it looks like to me right now. But we've got a long way to go...
 
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If the statistics remain consistent, he won't be.

1. No President since 1936 who has had an Unemployment rate of 7.2% or above going into an election year has ever been reelected.
2. No sitting Senator who has ever been elected President has ever been reelected (the first two who were died in office[Harding and Kennedy], however. So far Obama has broken that chain)
3. Very rarely do we have three reelected Presidents in a row. It has only happened twice in American Political History: Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and FDR, Truman, Ike.

None of that takes into account the situation. How about you look into how often moderates have won the GOP primary after Reagan. That should be more telling than most other things.
 
None of that takes into account the situation. How about you look into how often moderates have won the GOP primary after Reagan. That should be more telling than most other things.

Reagan wasn't a moderate, and there are quite a few conservatives on the list right now. Incidently, my definition of a Moderate is a "watered down liberal".
 
If the statistics remain consistent, he won't be.

1. No President since 1936 who has had an Unemployment rate of 7.2% or above going into an election year has ever been reelected.
2. No sitting Senator who has ever been elected President has ever been reelected (the first two who were died in office[Harding and Kennedy], however. So far Obama has broken that chain)
3. Very rarely do we have three reelected Presidents in a row. It has only happened twice in American Political History: Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and FDR, Truman, Ike.

All incredibly flawed points.

1. I've explained this one before, maybe if I have time I'll go look up my old post.

EDIT: Here it is:

In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%.

That's such a flawed statistic though.

First of all, why ignore that FDR got reelected with an unemployment rate in the teens (I believe it was 14 or 15%)? Seems pretty significant, and no economic crisis since that time period has been quite as bad as the one Obama has faced in his first few years as president.

Secondly, let's look at the unemployment #s on election day for post-FDR incumbent presidents, up until that magical 7.2% number that Reagan got reelected with:
Truman, 1948 - 3.8% (reelected)
Eisenhower, 1956 - 4.3% (reelected)
Johnson, 1964 - 4.8% (reelectedish)
Nixon, 1972 - 5.3% (reelected)
Ford, 1976 - 7.8% (NOT reelected)
Carter, 1980 - 7.5% (NOT reelected)

So what I'm getting at is that in 1984, by your logic, you could've said "In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 5.3%. Thus, Reagan won't win!" And yet with unemployment 2 points higher than that magic number (up to that point), Reagan was reelected in an absolute landslide.

So what I'm getting at is, we have to be careful in using past elections as an exact precedent in determining an exact number the unemployment has to reach to guarantee Obama's reelection. No such number exists - he could get reelected with higher unemployment than Reagan, and he could get defeated with lower unemployment than Reagan. What will matter, as I said in my other post, is the general sentiment of the country...not any concrete statistic.

2. You explain yourself why that's a flawed point.

3. Do you think this matters, at all? Do you think voters sit and say "Well, we just reelected two presidents in a row...not gonna vote for Obama for that very reason!"? This seems to be pretty meaningless.
 
Reagan wasn't a moderate, and there are quite a few conservatives on the list right now. Incidently, my definition of a Moderate is a "watered down liberal".

I meant that the Republicans have fielded no moderate presidential candidates since Reagan, and have alienated the independents with their candidates in this race already. Look at Bachmann, Pawlenty, etc. They're never going to beat Obama, but one of them might beat the other Republicans.
 
I think he is guaranteed his 2nd term. A lot of his opponents are either RINOs(Mitt Romney) or damaged goods(Sara Palin). Whether or not it is a landslide depends on who the republicans prop up in order to give Obama his 2nd term.

I agree about how much of a mess the GOP field is right now. The candidates are so busy trying to prove how right wing they are, they're forgetting to do things like try to prove how good presidents they'd be. They're just trying to make Americans hate Obama, instead of making them like the candidates. Some positivity might help these folks out. Obama's had a lot of positivity, and still does.

I don't really want to speculate on what happens. I thought Bush would be defeated in a landslide in '04, so I realize I'm not good at predictions. I hope Obama wins again, not only because he espouses way more of my ideals than republicans do, but also because I think he's a good person with a lot of integrity, who's held on as much as he can in the single most ideals-destroying job in the world. I have a lot of respect for him. And, sadly, it seems like the GOP candidates that I have respect for (like Romney and Paul), aren't lunatic fringe enough to unite their party.
 
Americans dumped Liberalism like a bag of manure in 2010........in 2012 they are going to finish the fertilizing.....and flush that Kenyan Turd.....in a landslide........

.......so dont act surprised when it does happen libs........
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Reagan wasn't a moderate, and there are quite a few conservatives on the list right now. Incidently, my definition of a Moderate is a "watered down liberal".

I doubt that's accurate, at least not compared with the rest of the democracy-loving, western world. Our center is quite farther to the right than most European counties, as well as democratic Asian and Pacific nations. Our liberals are moderates to the rest of the world.
 
I meant that the Republicans have fielded no moderate presidential candidates since Reagan, and have alienated the independents with their candidates in this race already. Look at Bachmann, Pawlenty, etc. They're never going to beat Obama, but one of them might beat the other Republicans.

They said Reagan was never going to beat Carter too. He did, BIG TIME! I can think of several reasons why Obama is going to lose.
 
Yes. But i dont think in a "landslide".. I believe if Bush did it in 2004 then Obama can do it no problem..
 
I agree about how much of a mess the GOP field is right now. The candidates are so busy trying to prove how right wing they are, they're forgetting to do things like try to prove how good presidents they'd be. They're just trying to make Americans hate Obama, instead of making them like the candidates. Some positivity might help these folks out. Obama's had a lot of positivity, and still does.

I don't really want to speculate on what happens. I thought Bush would be defeated in a landslide in '04, so I realize I'm not good at predictions. I hope Obama wins again, not only because he espouses way more of my ideals than republicans do, but also because I think he's a good person with a lot of integrity, who's held on as much as he can in the single most ideals-destroying job in the world. I have a lot of respect for him. And, sadly, it seems like the GOP candidates that I have respect for (like Romney and Paul), aren't lunatic fringe enough to unite their party.

They are reactionary, talking heads. The only one I haven't seen fall into that description is Huntsman.
 
They said Reagan was never going to beat Carter too. He did, BIG TIME! I can think of several reasons why Obama is going to lose.

And who are you going to compare to Ronald Reagan? Michelle Bachmann? Mitt Romney?

The problem with your comparison is, these new candidates do not signal a New Right, or any change from the norm. And they're going to have to show they're far right to win the primary. And when it comes time for the election, moderates are going to remember what they said and did to get the primary.

They're not Reagan, because they're the same as their predecessors, and therefore, your comparison is moot.
 
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