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My Take On Why We Don't Wait For The Facts To Emerge

Tazmanian Devil

Tazmanian Devil

Banned
Joined
May 28, 2015
Messages
972
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Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Very Conservative
My Take On Why We Don't Wait For The Facts To Emerge

Whenever some news event moves us to speculate on the motivations or identities of a perp or the outcome of a jury trial before the facts are in or the details are made known, we do so for the same reason we bet on the lottery.

We know we have a chance of attaining a fortune we would never have a way of attaining any other way.

With the Lottery, we know we will never have a chance of becoming fabulously wealthy in any other way.

So we wager what we can afford and hope for a miracle.

When we speculate on a news event before knowing the facts we wager our credibility on our theory being proved correct.

And we do this because we know we might never have the kind of political acumen to be respected for real insight. The closest we will ever get is to guess (although some guesses are educated guesses) and hope we are lucky enough to have guessed correctly.

The problem is that instead of a few bucks we can afford on a Lotto ticket we wager our credibility.

And that tells you just how little some value their credibility.

But it also says something about our audience.

One minute a political "observer" may wager his credibility and be proven wrong. But then he will expect to be taken seriously in another thread and no one holds his feet to the fire and calls him on his stupid, premature guess which may or may not have been proved wrong...or right.

There should be a way of keeping score so that those who are reliable observers will get the credit they deserve and those who are just lotto players are given whatever respect they are due.

My credibility means something to me.

That is why I usually wait until the facts emerge before going out on a limb trying to guess the details and hope I am proved right.

I am right enough that I don't need the cheap thrill of guessing lucky.

And i don't like being in the crowd of posters who have no other hope of ever being proved right except by guessing lucky.

But that's just me.


Tazmanian Devil
Copyright © 2015
Use as needed, just give credit and do not edit.

:cool:
 
Last edited:
Tazmanian Devil said:

My credibility means something to me.

That is why I usually wait until the facts emerge before going out on a limb trying to guess the details and hope I am proved right.
Click to expand...


Are you not capable of realizing that commentary on developing situations with incomplete facts is a form of speculation and therefor you do not need to hold everybody to some ridiculous standard of "credibility"?
 
Tazmanian Devil said:
That is why I usually wait until the facts emerge before going out on a limb trying to guess the details and hope I am proved right.
Click to expand...

That's good common sense!

While I don't mind discussing the details (the few we're likely to hear), I think it's foolhardy to start drawing conclusions.
 
It's the Age of Insta-Information.
 
logansrun said:
Are you not capable of realizing that commentary on developing situations with incomplete facts is a form of speculation and therefor you do not need to hold everybody to some ridiculous standard of "credibility"?
Click to expand...

It seems neither of us are capable of realizing what your post says.

It is undecipherable to me.

And if you realized what it actually said you would re-write it, as i guess your goal was to communicate an idea and not to confuse.

But maybe I'm wrong.
 
nota bene said:
It's the Age of Insta-Information.
Click to expand...


And maybe that is the curse as well as the blessing.

Only those who have had to work and pay and wait for information really appreciate, or maybe even deserve, the instant variety.

General rule of thumb, when something is too easily obtained it isn't valued as much.
 
Tazmanian Devil said:
One minute a political "observer" may wager his credibility and be proven wrong. But then he will expect to be taken seriously in another thread and no one holds his feet to the fire and calls him on his stupid, premature guess which may or may not have been proved wrong...or right.
Click to expand...

Just for the record, folks don't only lose credibility by "guessing" on the outcome of jury trials.

Folks also lose credibility by offering the most absurdly myopic and pedestrian opinion on some topic or other as though they think they actually know what they're talking about, while folks who have a better understanding of that topic will see them for the posturing fools that they really are.

Then they expect to be taken seriously elsewhere and those of us who see them as the "Emperor in new clothes", as it were, just completely disregard most or all of what they might have to say because they've already bankrupted themselves.

I can understand why some people might judge their own worth and value as a function of some misguided and inflated belief in their own omniscience and intellectual infallibility, and I respect their right to do so, but I generally consider them clowns.

When, like a stopped clock, they're right twice a day I'll probably nod my head and give them their props, but they certainly aren't my go-to source for anything, and I tend to skim over most of what they say.

I'm not saying that you fit in to that category as far as I'm concerned, but you do.

And in the interest of fairness, and not just to make this all about you, I expect that there are probably people around here who see me in a similar light.

But I don't delude myself by pretending that my discussions here on USPOL are anything more than good fun; they're certainly not a measure of me as a man.

I reserve the right to discuss things for entertainment value without requiring myself to have a PhD level understanding of everything that I comment on, and I reserve the right to be wrong at times.

Oh, and if I ever get to the point where I deliberately start posting self-aggrandizing threads for the express purpose of patting myself on the back I give you all blanket permission to shoot me in the face.
 
soot said:
Just for the record, folks don't only lose credibility by "guessing" on the outcome of jury trials.

Folks also lose credibility by offering the most absurdly myopic and pedestrian opinion on some topic or other as though they think they actually know what they're talking about, while folks who have a better understanding of that topic will see them for the posturing fools that they really are.

Then they expect to be taken seriously elsewhere and those of us who see them as the "Emperor in new clothes", as it were, just completely disregard most or all of what they might have to say because they've already bankrupted themselves.

I can understand why some people might judge their own worth and value as a function of some misguided and inflated belief in their own omniscience and intellectual infallibility, and I respect their right to do so, but I generally consider them clowns.

When, like a stopped clock, they're right twice a day I'll probably nod my head and give them their props, but they certainly aren't my go-to source for anything, and I tend to skim over most of what they say.

I'm not saying that you fit in to that category as far as I'm concerned, but you do.

And in the interest of fairness, and not just to make this all about you, I expect that there are probably people around here who see me in a similar light.

But I don't delude myself by pretending that my discussions here on USPOL are anything more than good fun; they're certainly not a measure of me as a man.

I reserve the right to discuss things for entertainment value without requiring myself to have a PhD level understanding of everything that I comment on, and I reserve the right to be wrong at times.

Oh, and if I ever get to the point where I deliberately start posting self-aggrandizing threads for the express purpose of patting myself on the back I give you all blanket permission to shoot me in the face.
Click to expand...

Yeah?

Well, I'm wagering that I know more than you.

I once was of your opinion. Then I became educated.

Now, I that I have seen things from your point of view and I have seen things from my current point of view, I will rest with my wager of my credibility and I'm sure you will do the same.

May I ask if you ever realize who is right that you remind me of it and I will acknowledge the winner if you will.

:2wave:

P.S. It's only fair to tell you that I get my info from THE source.

The PERFECT MUSLIM.
 
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Tazmanian Devil said:
My Take On Why We Don't Wait For The Facts To Emerge

Whenever some news event moves us to speculate on the motivations or identities of a perp or the outcome of a jury trial before the facts are in or the details are made known, we do so for the same reason we bet on the lottery.

We know we have a chance of attaining a fortune we would never have a way of attaining any other way.

With the Lottery, we know we will never have a chance of becoming fabulously wealthy in any other way.

So we wager what we can afford and hope for a miracle.

When we speculate on a news event before knowing the facts we wager our credibility on our theory being proved correct.

And we do this because we know we might never have the kind of political acumen to be respected for real insight. The closest we will ever get is to guess (although some guesses are educated guesses) and hope we are lucky enough to have guessed correctly.

The problem is that instead of a few bucks we can afford on a Lotto ticket we wager our credibility.

And that tells you just how little some value their credibility.

But it also says something about our audience.

One minute a political "observer" may wager his credibility and be proven wrong. But then he will expect to be taken seriously in another thread and no one holds his feet to the fire and calls him on his stupid, premature guess which may or may not have been proved wrong...or right.

There should be a way of keeping score so that those who are reliable observers will get the credit they deserve and those who are just lotto players are given whatever respect they are due.

My credibility means something to me.

That is why I usually wait until the facts emerge before going out on a limb trying to guess the details and hope I am proved right.

I am right enough that I don't need the cheap thrill of guessing lucky.

And i don't like being in the crowd of posters who have no other hope of ever being proved right except by guessing lucky.

But that's just me.


Tazmanian Devil
Copyright © 2015
Use as needed, just give credit and do not edit.

:cool:
Click to expand...

People do lose credibility. I think they just don't realize it. But aren't there a number of posters on here whose posts you either completely ignore or dismiss because they lost credibility with you long ago? We just don't tell them.
 
CrabCake said:
People do lose credibility. I think they just don't realize it. But aren't there a number of posters on here whose posts you either completely ignore or dismiss because they lost credibility with you long ago? We just don't tell them.
Click to expand...

Derision and contempt from posters is easy to sense if they engage you.

The frequency or the lack of challenges is another sign.

All in all, I say the more credible you are the less nonsense you have to endure.

And if you leave a poster alone because they have lost your respect, then that is a result of loss of cred which flies beneath the radar, so to speak.

Most posters aren't adult enough to simply leave one who is ignorant or incredible, alone.

You sound like a sensible and mature poster.

:)
 
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I suspect it may be a confluence of two facts. First, that people have an innate confirmation bias. Second, that people tend not to adequately respect the opposing points of view. The upshot is that when some fact appears, most people work it into their favorite narrative without considering how it might also work into others.
 
ashurbanipal said:
I suspect it may be a confluence of two facts. First, that people have an innate confirmation bias. Second, that people tend not to adequately respect the opposing points of view. The upshot is that when some fact appears, most people work it into their favorite narrative without considering how it might also work into others.
Click to expand...

Food for thought.

Thanks.

:)

Edit: Okay. But that doesn't address the fact that the coin of the realm, i.e. their credibility, is much better served by their waiting to get more factual info.

They lack self control.

They don't place much value on their reputation.

They believe their guess is right and are willing to wager their credibility.

The chance to gain peer recognition ios so great that they are willing to make a risky bet.

Or all of the above or a combination of the above.

And maybe so9me factors I haven't thought of yet.
 
Last edited:
Tazmanian Devil said:
Food for thought.

Thanks.



Edit: Okay. But that doesn't address the fact that the coin of the realm, i.e. their credibility, is much better served by their waiting to get more factual info.

They lack self control.

They don't place much value on their reputation.

They believe their guess is right and are willing to wager their credibility.

The chance to gain peer recognition ios so great that they are willing to make a risky bet.

Or all of the above or a combination of the above.

And maybe so9me factors I haven't thought of yet.
Click to expand...

Sure; I think lack of self-control is implied in not respecting opposing points of view.
 
Tazmanian Devil said:
My Take On Why We Don't Wait For The Facts To Emerge

Whenever some news event moves us to speculate on the motivations or identities of a perp or the outcome of a jury trial before the facts are in or the details are made known, we do so for the same reason we bet on the lottery.

We know we have a chance of attaining a fortune we would never have a way of attaining any other way.

With the Lottery, we know we will never have a chance of becoming fabulously wealthy in any other way.

So we wager what we can afford and hope for a miracle.

When we speculate on a news event before knowing the facts we wager our credibility on our theory being proved correct.

And we do this because we know we might never have the kind of political acumen to be respected for real insight. The closest we will ever get is to guess (although some guesses are educated guesses) and hope we are lucky enough to have guessed correctly.

The problem is that instead of a few bucks we can afford on a Lotto ticket we wager our credibility.

And that tells you just how little some value their credibility.

But it also says something about our audience.

One minute a political "observer" may wager his credibility and be proven wrong. But then he will expect to be taken seriously in another thread and no one holds his feet to the fire and calls him on his stupid, premature guess which may or may not have been proved wrong...or right.

There should be a way of keeping score so that those who are reliable observers will get the credit they deserve and those who are just lotto players are given whatever respect they are due.

My credibility means something to me.

That is why I usually wait until the facts emerge before going out on a limb trying to guess the details and hope I am proved right.

I am right enough that I don't need the cheap thrill of guessing lucky.

And i don't like being in the crowd of posters who have no other hope of ever being proved right except by guessing lucky.

But that's just me.


Tazmanian Devil
Copyright © 2015
Use as needed, just give credit and do not edit.

:cool:
Click to expand...

The problem has nothing to do with speculation and everything to do with being unable to change your mind when new information comes along.

Skip to 3:20 on this video for an experiment that demonstrates a classic confirmation bias.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoCqftOYHX4
 
Tazmanian Devil said:
I once was of your opinion. Then I became educated.
Click to expand...

What type of education have you received?

Who were your instructors?

May I ask if you ever realize who is right that you remind me of it and I will acknowledge the winner if you will.
Click to expand...

I'm not quite sure what you're asking here?

P.S. It's only fair to tell you that I get my info from THE source.

The PERFECT MUSLIM.
Click to expand...

Who or what is "The PERFECT MUSLIM?
 
Tazmanian Devil said:
My Take On Why We Don't Wait For The Facts To Emerge

Whenever some news event moves us to speculate on the motivations or identities of a perp or the outcome of a jury trial before the facts are in or the details are made known, we do so for the same reason we bet on the lottery.

We know we have a chance of attaining a fortune we would never have a way of attaining any other way.

With the Lottery, we know we will never have a chance of becoming fabulously wealthy in any other way.

So we wager what we can afford and hope for a miracle.

When we speculate on a news event before knowing the facts we wager our credibility on our theory being proved correct.

And we do this because we know we might never have the kind of political acumen to be respected for real insight. The closest we will ever get is to guess (although some guesses are educated guesses) and hope we are lucky enough to have guessed correctly.

The problem is that instead of a few bucks we can afford on a Lotto ticket we wager our credibility.

And that tells you just how little some value their credibility.

But it also says something about our audience.

One minute a political "observer" may wager his credibility and be proven wrong. But then he will expect to be taken seriously in another thread and no one holds his feet to the fire and calls him on his stupid, premature guess which may or may not have been proved wrong...or right.

There should be a way of keeping score so that those who are reliable observers will get the credit they deserve and those who are just lotto players are given whatever respect they are due.

My credibility means something to me.

That is why I usually wait until the facts emerge before going out on a limb trying to guess the details and hope I am proved right.

I am right enough that I don't need the cheap thrill of guessing lucky.

And i don't like being in the crowd of posters who have no other hope of ever being proved right except by guessing lucky.

But that's just me.


Tazmanian Devil
Copyright © 2015
Use as needed, just give credit and do not edit.

:cool:
Click to expand...

I think it has to do with talking about something for 24 hours straight and running out of facts to discuss.

Places like CNN, MSNBC, Fox News cover these things incessantly. People aren't going to listen to the same set of facts over and over again, the real world isn't fast paced enough for the 24 hour news cycle. What we end up with are pundits and people talking out of their ass and going on tangents that may be interesting to listen to, but completely devoid of facts.
 
Tazmanian Devil said:
And maybe that is the curse as well as the blessing.

Only those who have had to work and pay and wait for information really appreciate, or maybe even deserve, the instant variety.

General rule of thumb, when something is too easily obtained it isn't valued as much.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I speculated that your posts might continue to be a joke and guess what, the facts are emerging that they are. Still, I had a little chuckle when you mentioned 'credibility' in your OP.
 
Tazmanian Devil said:
It seems neither of us are capable of realizing what your post says.

It is undecipherable to me.

And if you realized what it actually said you would re-write it, as i guess your goal was to communicate an idea and not to confuse.

But maybe I'm wrong.
Click to expand...

Yes you are wrong. My post means exactly what it says.
 
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