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Good for you on the change in lifestyle! I've slacked up some recently, so need to pick it up.
But the ins. cos. DO look at the prior year's claims in order to set future rates. That's not ALL they do, but that's where they start. It wouldn't make sense otherwise.
What to Look for in 2017 ACA Marketplace Premium Changes | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
When my prior employer would renew their group carrier, the carrier would decide how much to raise the premiums, based in part on the cost of the claims turned in by the company the prior year. That's how they know whether their rates were set correctly or not. If they don't look at that, they don't know whether the new rate will bring them the profit they want or whether they'll lose money. You can't predict the future exactly, but I'm sure they take all sorts of things into consideration, like whether there was an unusual # of people with cancer, compared with the # of employees, etc.
An insurer does not simply add last year’s losses to next year’s premiums plus profits. Your reference makes that perfectly clear. There are numerous factors that go into ratemaking, not just the prior year’s claim experience, which the actuary may adjust for various reasons. No actuarial indications are pointedly for the “next year” as if for that year only. It’s about what that year needs to be looking into the future so that rate adjustments do not have to be too radical. BTW, not so many people will be getting such radically high premium increases as is being said by the anti-ACA vocalists. But of course, we will hear the worst of it.
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