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CBO looks back on how they did: CBO’s Record of Projecting Subsidies for Health Insurance Under the Affordable Care Act: 2014 to 2016
No big surprises: the ACA is costing less than predicted (in total and on a per-subsidized person basis) but it's also covering fewer people than projected.
No big surprises: the ACA is costing less than predicted (in total and on a per-subsidized person basis) but it's also covering fewer people than projected.
CBO and JCT’s March 2010 and May 2013 estimates of Medicaid expenditures for people made newly eligible for the program by the ACA plus subsidies for health insurance received through the marketplaces and the Basic Health Program were close to the actual amounts in 2014 and 2015 but well above the actual amounts in 2016.
CBO and JCT overestimated costs to the federal government in part because the agencies overestimated the number of people who would enroll through the marketplaces and receive subsidies, particularly in 2016. . .
CBO and JCT also overpredicted total costs for subsidized enrollees because the agencies estimated average costs per subsidized enrollee that were too high—by about one-third, on average, over the 2014–2016 period.
In March 2010, before incorporating the Supreme Court’s decision affecting Medicaid, the agencies estimated the number of un- insured people at 21 million, or 8 percent of the population under age 65. As reported by the National Health Interview Survey (conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics, which is part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), the number turned out to be 28 million, or 10 percent of the 271 million people under age 65.
