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Poll: Democrats hold big leads in Pennsylvania Senate, governor races

JacksinPA

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https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brie...ocrats-up-big-in-pennsylvania-senate-governor

Democrats in Pennsylvania are posed for big wins in Senate and governor races, according to a poll released Friday.

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll found that incumbent Senator Bob Casey (D) has the support of 53 percent of likely voters, while his opponent Rep. Lou Barletta (R) only has 35 percent.

Gov. Tom Wolf (D), also an incumbent, commands support from 55 percent of the likely voting pool, while Republican challenger Scott Wagner has 36 percent.

The poll also showed 55 percent of respondents disapproved of President Trump's job performance, compared to 39 percent who approved in a state that went narrowly for the president in 2016.
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Makes me feel right at home.
 
While I'm interested in the polls, there's no way to predict how big or small wave elections will be.

Sometimes you have elections where one party just nabs anything that's a toss-up, whether it be House seats, local seats, governorships, or even Senate seats. Examples of that would be 1994 (GOP), 2006-2008 (DNC), 2010 (GOP).

Other times you have little wave elections where a party has an edge in most toss-ups, but there's only a particular class of races effected. An example of that would be 1982 when Reagan's approval was mixed and the GOP lost 26 seats, but they didn't really feel the effect in the Senate or governor races.

It's very difficult to tell right now which one this year will be and as most races break very late, it will probably be impossible to predict until the last week. Remember, both parties outperformed polls in their wave years by a large margin.
 
While I'm interested in the polls, there's no way to predict how big or small wave elections will be.

Sometimes you have elections where one party just nabs anything that's a toss-up, whether it be House seats, local seats, governorships, or even Senate seats. Examples of that would be 1994 (GOP), 2006-2008 (DNC), 2010 (GOP).

Other times you have little wave elections where a party has an edge in most toss-ups, but there's only a particular class of races effected. An example of that would be 1982 when Reagan's approval was mixed and the GOP lost 26 seats, but they didn't really feel the effect in the Senate or governor races.

It's very difficult to tell right now which one this year will be and as most races break very late, it will probably be impossible to predict until the last week. Remember, both parties outperformed polls in their wave years by a large margin.

I think the internet has pretty much killed polling. Everything is a push poll this far out!
 
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