Dem Gains in CD18 Special

Dem Gains in CD18 Special

Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead over Saccone if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage. “This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “It would mark an extraordinary swing from Trump’s nearly 20 point victory here in 2016 if he could hold on to win,” said Murray.

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All of the unions in this heavily blue-collar mining/steel district are strongly supporting Democrat candidate Conor Lamb. The anti-union Republican candidate Rick Saccone supports Right-to-Work laws. Trump said hardly anything about Saccone during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday night that was supposed to promote his candidacy.

Rogue Valley said:

Dem Gains in CD18 Special



All of the unions in this heavily blue-collar mining/steel district are strongly supporting Democrat candidate Conor Lamb. The anti-union Republican candidate Rick Saccone supports Right-to-Work laws. Trump said hardly anything about Saccone during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday night that was supposed to promote his candidacy.

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I think we also need to remember this district has very few steel mills or steel jobs at, today. It's now significantly a service economy, and significantly suburban. A polling outfit found Trump's tariffs are playing roughly 50-50, with the negative 50 believing steel tariffs will hurt the downstream businesses in the district.

So with the most recent poll showing Lamb +6, and the possibility of Trump's Saturday rally not moving the needle that much (but I'm not sure), Lamb may indeed have a decent shot here. Plus having rising momentum going into the day of the election, as Lamb does, is always a good position to be in.

If I had to be one of these candidates, right now I'd prefer to be Lamb.