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As noted in #5 and #6, Drake's equation makes "little green men" quite likely. The real obstacle is the timeline in an infinite universe.
Regardless, the particular evidence cited in the OP merits a serious review, IMHO.
The Drake equation doesn’t make any assumption in terms of how likely it is that intelligent alien life/civilizations exist.
I think it’s pretty clear by using common sense that alien spacecraft haven’t traveled thru interstellar space just to buzz by military jets every once in a while.