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Russia flunks on stealth

usaf77

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In the best of times Russia has a defense budget the size of Australia's and they have had serious problems developing a stealth fighter from the beginning. The oil war was crushing their economy and military budget even before Corona. Also China is reliant on Russian made engines for their stealth planes so Russia's problem is China's problem. Neither have a export market, Russia couldn't give these things away, India canceled their involvement in the project. China is still having issues with its J20 stealth fighter, mush of it due to engine problems and IR signatures but also inferior avionics, performance, and all aspect stealth. It looks like America will be the main stealth player for the foreseeable future. Russia's Su-57 Stealth Fighter Has Problems: Engines, Oil, and Weak Adversaries | The National Interest
 
Well, I can say that I haven't seen any Russian stealth aircraft.
 
Sorry, but this entire post is pure garbage. But I am going to rebut some key points here.

In the best of times Russia has a defense budget the size of Australia's and they have had serious problems developing a stealth fighter from the beginning.

Not even close. Russia spends roughly $61 billion a year, Australia spends $26 billion. And Russia could easily "build a stealth plane". After all, the formulas that allowed the US to build the first stealth plane were made by a Russian, published in a Russian journal.

They simply see no reason to build a stealth plane that is not a next generation one. And that is not the same thing.

The oil war was crushing their economy and military budget even before Corona.

Also not true, most of their exports like always are in heavy equipment. And this "oil war" has had little impact on it's bread and butter, natural gas.

Also China is reliant on Russian made engines for their stealth planes so Russia's problem is China's problem. Neither have a export market, Russia couldn't give these things away, India canceled their involvement in the project.

China has a horrid large engine manufacturing capability, most of their large engines tend to come from Russia or the Ukraine. And that is nothing new, it has been that way for decades. But no export market?

Russia is the #2 arms exporter in the world, at around $6 billion per year. Second only to the US, at $10 billion per year.

And there is almost no export market because almost no countries need stealth aircraft, nor can they afford them. Having a stealth fighter for most nations would be like them having an aircraft carrier, a fleet of M1 tanks, and a moon rocket. Their GDP simply would not support such an expense, and their military would have no use for the damned thing. SO it becomes a white elephant, just something to show off to potential adversaries.

"Look, we have der stealthes, back off!"

And India doing that is hardly a surprise. India has become a master of playing East and West off against each other. They throw just enough money at Chinese and Russian programs to be a first line customer, but not enough to become a full partner. They do that with both Russia and China, and it is for primarily political reasons. And once again, what need do they really have for a stealth aircraft, unless Pakistan buys them also?
 
China is still having issues with its J20 stealth fighter, mush of it due to engine problems and IR signatures but also inferior avionics, performance, and all aspect stealth. It looks like America will be the main stealth player for the foreseeable future.

Hell, China runs a decade or more behind on almost every aircraft program they start. This is not only military, but civilian as well. Engines, avionics, materials, they have huge problems in most industrial operations of this scale, and they are all very well known.

And also because this was something they had thought they would be able to make lots of money at exporting. And that kinda turned out to be a bust, they were surprised when not many countries expressed an interest in buying them.

China has literally become the archetype of what a nation would look like if run by 19th century "Robber Barons". They will develop anything they can, and sell it to anybody that wants it, just so long as it makes them a profit. But they never seem to understand that most of the world sees them as building largely garbage products, which you get when either quality does not matter at all, or you can afford nothing else.

Neither China or Russia having Stealth really matters very much in the real world. Because the applications for it are rather limited. And hugely misunderstood. Stealth does not make aircraft invisible. A country that has "stealth aircraft" does not suddenly have a fleet of Wonder Women, flying around in invisible planes.

That is not how Stealth works, that is not why stealth works.

And the main reason the US is the only player in the Arms Industry that is actually exporting fully working 5th Generation Fighters. That, and they worked on 2 different designs at the same time. One a multi-role (F-35), the other an interceptor (F-22).

China meanwhile has tried to make at least 6 of them that we are aware of. You mention the J-20 (interceptor). There is/was also the FC-31 (multi-role), H-20 (bomber), J-18 (another multi-role fighter), JH-XX (another bomber), and yet another unknown classification of fighter (Shenyang JJ).

And this is typical of the Chinese approach to their military equipment. They rarely actually cancel one that does not work, they just start a new program and let the older one fade away. Either that, or they continue to try and market it for export, knowing that their own military often does not want what they had made.

That they have not really made a stealth fighter is not important, to them it is important that they try to make one. Of course, they had also been trying for years to make a carrier and the aircraft to us eon them, with little success. But that does not matter, it is all a prestige thing to them.
 
And in closing, much of this actually goes full circle back to who the customers would be.

How many countries need stealth aircraft?

The reality is, not many. Look around the world at other countries, how many need this? Can you see Argentina buying them? Brazil? South Africa? Philippines? Taiwan?

This is the thing about the highest tech of weapons, their actual application to most countries is very limited. Because you have to look at who they would be used against. If Peru decided to buy 25 stealth fighters, who would they use them against? Who would Vietnam attack or defend against with them?

Well, the answer has to be one of 2 things. Either a nearby country that they could have a conflict with, or a superpower that might or does have them.

In the case of the second, you can almost immediately discount it. So what if Taiwan or the Philippines buys 25 stealth fighters? Does anybody think that would help them stop an invasion by the US, Russia, or China? They would actually be better off spending that money for a larger number of conventional aircraft. Once again, that high tech stuff becomes a white elephant when going up against a nation that would overwhelm it in conventional firepower alone.

And for the first, look to the last. Say Argentina was about to go to war with Brazil. What would be better, 25 stealth fighters, or 75+ conventional fighters? Quite obviously the second, so why bother investing in the first?

Both Russia and China made the mistake of believing there would be a huge international market for them, and that is not the case. And this can be seen in the tank production of China for the last 20 years.

For all their attempts to make the MBT2000 and MBT3000 their main export models, that has never happened. Their main tank exports are still the Type 69/79 (T-62), and Type 80 (updated T-72 with improved T-72 capabilities). The reason for this is obvious, they are cheap, and all that most nations need. Heck, the US still exports to this day the good old M-60 Patton, and designs, sells, and installs upgrades for former and current customers. We still have a lot of them in inventory, and they are all the tank that most nations need.

And for those that think they might actually use their tanks, the export model M1 and T-72 (T-80 or T-90 if they have the money to spend). But those are few, and even fewer are looking seriously at the T-14.

This is something the US realized a long time ago. They tend to produce very few models of most of their equipment, instead choosing to upgrade them for decades until they finally take the effort to replace them. And those upgraded last generation tanks have a lot of buyers. The US did not even try to seriously export the M1 until after the Cold War ended, and they suddenly had huge stockpiles of them sitting around collecting dust. And once again, it is the older non-upgraded or limited upgraded models they export.

The old Abrams is now over 4 decades old. But the US still has not seriously looked into making a replacement. About 6 years ago they tested a gun that might have been for the XM1202, but that entire program was cancelled. Not a single prototype even got off of the paper, they only tested a gun (which was rejected) when the program was cancelled. The same for the Ground Combat Vehicle program, cancelled before they even developed a paper prototype.

Myself, I do not see an Abrams replacement for another 20 years. That platform is highly versatile, and can be upgraded for another decade or more at least. But even the original M1 and even the M1A1 is more tank than most nations need, so they do not bother. Especially when they can buy 3 or 4 M60 tanks at the same price.

Russia and China are only now realizing that. Now Russia might have had guaranteed customers, if they had not been so brutal on their satellite nations so that when the Soviet Union died they all left the Warsaw Pact in droves. And most of them stick to the old Cold War systems, because they know NATO has no interest in invading them, and there is little to nothing they can do if Russia invades them once again.
 
Not even close. Russia spends roughly $61 billion a year, Australia spends $26 billion. And Russia could easily "build a stealth plane". After all, the formulas that allowed the US to build the first stealth plane were made by a Russian, published in a Russian journal.

Actually what I meant was country GDP, not defense spending. Russia has roughly the GDP of Australia.

Quote Originally Posted by usaf77 View Post
The oil war was crushing their economy and military budget even before Corona.

Also not true, most of their exports like always are in heavy equipment. And this "oil war" has had little impact on it's bread and butter, natural gas.

Very true. Boy I dont know where you came up with this one. Subscribe to read | Financial Times The current price of oil is, and has been, far below the break even price for Russia's extracting it and their economy is largely oil based. They are in a world of hurt. What "heavy equipment" are you even talking about?

And India doing that is hardly a surprise. India has become a master of playing East and West off against each other. They throw just enough money at Chinese and Russian programs to be a first line customer, but not enough to become a full partner. They do that with both Russia and China, and it is for primarily political reasons. And once again, what need do they really have for a stealth aircraft, unless Pakistan buys them also?
India is far more worried about China then they are Pakistan. They aren't building CV's, SSNs, and other warships to fight Pakistan.

11 countries have lined up to buy F-35s so apparently there is a market for them. We sell almost twice as much arms on the world market then Russia does, even with the need for congressional approval, so apparently theres a market for Americans arms as well.
Neither China or Russia having Stealth really matters very much in the real world. Because the applications for it are rather limited. And hugely misunderstood. Stealth does not make aircraft invisible. A country that has "stealth aircraft" does not suddenly have a fleet of Wonder Women, flying around in invisible planes.

That makes no sense. of course the platform that detects the enemy first is going to win almost all the time. besides "stealth" is simply one arrow in the quiver. The avionice s and technology in an airplane like the F-35 is fusion based with the stealth into a war winning package. And the prices for current F-35 lots are even cheaper then many legacy fighters. Nobody said stealth aircraft are invisible but they are "war winning". As a strike aircraft the F-35 can launch its weapons outside the detection envelope of enemy radar networks, the B-2 and coming B-21 even more so.

Stealth aircraft are like CV's. If they are so irrelevant why are these countries spending so much of their wealth building and maintaining them? Or buying them? Thats a rhetorical question BTW.
 
What "heavy equipment" are you even talking about?

$28 billion in heavy equipment, including tractors and trucks, along with other farming and industrial equipment.
$15 billion in tanks, APCs, and other major military equipment.
$10 billion in industrial electronics (robots, controlling machinery, machine tools).
$7 billion in large industrial generators, dynamos, and other large power production components.

India is far more worried about China then they are Pakistan. They aren't building CV's, SSNs, and other warships to fight Pakistan.

OK, now go and look at a map. Compare where India meets China, and where it meets Pakistan.

Now exactly how much good would a carrier do in a conflict with China? That makes about as much sense as 35 years ago claiming that the Soviets were increasing their navy in order to win in Afghanistan.

And no, they are not worried about China. They have this amazing buffer between their two nations, called the Himalayan Mountains that sits right between the two nations.

But here, look at history. Way back in 1962, there was a series of border skirmishes between the two nations. At the end of a month of conflict (which involved no Naval assets on either side) nothing really changed, other than both sides finally settled on where the border was.

However, that conflict did result in China becoming a major arms exporter to India's major regional adversary. Yes, Pakistan.

11 countries have lined up to buy F-35s so apparently there is a market for them. We sell almost twice as much arms on the world market then Russia does, even with the need for congressional approval, so apparently theres a market for Americans arms as well.

Primarily in NATO. And the rest to other high value economies that such an aircraft would be a benefit. Like the 30+ that South Korea is buying.

And yea, we export a lot of weapons, I never said we did not. In fact, the one area where our arms exports dwarf that of Russia is in our Naval exports. We sell and repair-upgrade a huge number of Navy ships all over the world. Other than subs and a few cruisers Russia has never really had much luck in Naval exports other than to a few select nations.

Do not equate our military exports, with a large number of nations wanting-needing stealth fighters. If you look at most of the countries buying (Poland, Israel, South Korea, etc), they are nations that have been attacked in recent years, or are under threat of attack.

That makes no sense. of course the platform that detects the enemy first is going to win almost all the time. besides "stealth" is simply one arrow in the quiver. The avionice s and technology in an airplane like the F-35 is fusion based with the stealth into a war winning package. And the prices for current F-35 lots are even cheaper then many legacy fighters. Nobody said stealth aircraft are invisible but they are "war winning". As a strike aircraft the F-35 can launch its weapons outside the detection envelope of enemy radar networks, the B-2 and coming B-21 even more so.

Stealth aircraft are like CV's. If they are so irrelevant why are these countries spending so much of their wealth building and maintaining them? Or buying them? Thats a rhetorical question BTW.

But stealth does not really prevent detection. As I said, these are not the "Invisible Planes" of Wonder Woman. In fact, if you remember we lost a Stealth platform over 20 years ago, to a glorified militia using 40 year old equipment.

All stealth does is mean that an aircraft is harder to detect, and harder to fire weapons at because they need a strong return signal in order to fire. But as we saw in former Yugoslavia, if a nation is willing to do some software hacks this can be overridden, and a hard launch order given even with an incomplete RADAR return.

I spent over 5 years in Air Defense. I participated in operations with the PATRIOT system against F-22 and F-35 fighters. We could still detect them, they just had to be closer first.

And do not forget, we (and others) still have other ways to detect aircraft, including visually and through audio systems. Those were big deals prior to stealth, and they are making a comeback. And stealth does not a damned thing against heat and visually guided systems, it only works against RADAR guided systems.

And no, CVs are of rather limited use, only in very specific situations. How much good did they do us in Afghanistan? We only use them so damned much because we have so many of them. No other nations really use them all that much, mostly as flagships for their fleets, with the carriers dedicated to more of a defensive role for the fleet than an offensive arm like the US does.
 
I really dont need to read someone repeating what Ive said.

What good does detecting a steal airplane from a detection envelope of 30 miles do when a SDB-ll glide weapon, with a anti-radiation warhead, has a range of 60 miles? let alone the other radar killing missiles we have that have far longer ranges? Thats the entire point you see? Not to be invisible but to be able to attack them before they know your there.

There were four CVs off Afghanistan during Enduring Freedoms air war, 72% of all sorties started from CVs. Did you ever hear the term ATA refueling? Quit ruining my thread with your stupid statements or I'm putting you on ignore. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG404.pdf
 
Most nations don't have any need for stealth aircraft the way the U.S. does. Most of the U.S. military airpower was designed around the ideas of our aircraft penetrating into heavily defended air space (mainly defended by SAMs and interceptors) to attack targets. For most nations building 20 SAMs for the cost of a single stealth aircraft is much more of a bargain. 9
 
It's an old joke.

"I didn't see you in camouflage training today, Private."

It is not funny to joke about this... Russian Stealth Aircraft could well be trying to infiltrate America.
 
Most nations don't have any need for stealth aircraft the way the U.S. does.

Agreed... no other nation attacks as many different people and countries as the USA does... so the USA completely has the biggest need.
 
Sorry, but this entire post is pure garbage. But I am going to rebut some key points here.



Not even close. Russia spends roughly $61 billion a year, Australia spends $26 billion. And Russia could easily "build a stealth plane". After all, the formulas that allowed the US to build the first stealth plane were made by a Russian, published in a Russian journal.

They simply see no reason to build a stealth plane that is not a next generation one. And that is not the same thing.



Also not true, most of their exports like always are in heavy equipment. And this "oil war" has had little impact on it's bread and butter, natural gas.

How wonderfully and deliciously wrong.

Russia’s Top 10 Exports 2019
OEC

- Russia (RUS) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners
 
Lighten up.

When bombs start falling on Tuscon then you won't be this flippant about it... One of my students just moved there... or to some other ****-hole in Arizona, and I care.
 
When bombs start falling on Tuscon then you won't be this flippant about it... One of my students just moved there... or to some other ****-hole in Arizona, and I care.

Tucson was one of the most heavily targeted cities on Earth not so long ago (Because of DMAFB and the boneyard), but it wouldn't matter. If everyone launched everything, all the nukes aimed at Tucson would miss and land on Sells. And I'd still have to go to work. The only difference would be that the drive to work would be worse.

Nobody escapes Tucson, no matter what.
 
Tucson was one of the most heavily targeted cities on Earth not so long ago (Because of DMAFB and the boneyard), but it wouldn't matter. If everyone launched everything, all the nukes aimed at Tucson would miss and land on Sells. And I'd still have to go to work. The only difference would be that the drive to work would be worse.

Nobody escapes Tucson, no matter what.

That is why I termed Tuscon the Mini Pit of Hell... Phoenix gets the Main Pit designation.
 
That is why I termed Tuscon the Mini Pit of Hell... Phoenix gets the Main Pit designation.

Tucson is heaven and I will never leave.

Phoenix is in fact a brightly-lit version of hell.
 
Agreed... no other nation attacks as many different people and countries as the USA does... so the USA completely has the biggest need.

The United States only attacks people and countries that was damned well justified in attacking.
 
Tucson is heaven and I will never leave.

For a starter ,get rid of the heat, the desert, the dirt everywhere, the lack of outside air conditioning and I might start to agree with you.
 
For a starter ,get rid of the heat, the desert, the dirt everywhere, the lack of outside air conditioning and I might start to agree with you.

I froze my ass off my whole life and then I moved here.

115-120F is reasonable. Perfect.
 
The United States only attacks people and countries that was damned well justified in attacking.

Totally... the Vietnamese spring to mind first. Totally justified. The Iraqis come a close second... if only we could have just attacked the MORE!
 
I froze my ass off my whole life and then I moved here.

115-120F is reasonable. Perfect.

:lol: Fair enough... where were you from before? I grew up a surfer kid in Huntington Beach CA.
 
Totally... the Vietnamese spring to mind first. Totally justified. The Iraqis come a close second... if only we could have just attacked the MORE!

I hear you brother. I hear you.
 
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