7/12/19
Even as Turkey prepared to take delivery of Russia’s S-400 air defense system, engineers at Lockheed Martin were apparently optimistically painting Turkish flags on to what would have been Ankara’s first eight air-frames. While U.S. officials clearly say moves to eject Turkey from the multi-nation Joint Strike Fighter project are not irreversible, those deliveries now seem impossible. Sending the aircraft upon which the United States, and its European and Asian allies, are betting so heavily would be a serious mistake. The United States and its allies—including Britain, with all its distractions—must be clear-eyed about what has happened here. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to sell the system to Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan was a deliberately mischievous move to undermine the NATO alliance. It is part of a wider strategy that includes fostering the far right, promoting conspiracy theories, and raising the specter of the 20th century’s worst political nightmares. It has included a military intervention in Syria that has allowed Russia to test its weapons while inflicting catastrophic human suffering. And, of course, Russia’s resurrected military is going out of its way to intimidate the neighborhood in a way not seen since the Cold War. In this case, Putin’s gambit has succeeded—and there may not be much the West can do to stop it.
Luckily, there is a relatively simple answer. The F-35's already earmarked for Turkey, I believe, should be sent somewhere else to Russia’s near-abroad, where they can worry Moscow’s planners and reassure America’s European allies. That means sending them to Eastern Europe, perhaps at a concessionary rate. If one wanted to really, really infuriate Putin – in a possibly quite dangerous way — then of course there is always Ukraine. Another option would be to send the jets to one of the Baltic states, most likely Estonia or Lithuania, to augment NATO’s Air Policing mission and potentially train local pilots. That would dramatically increase the ability of NATO’s easternmost members to defend themselves, and the training could be provided relatively readily through other NATO states. The easiest option, though, might be Poland. In May, Warsaw formally expressed interest in buying 32 F-35s to replace its own aging Soviet jets. Given his closer-than-usual relations with Poland’s right-wing government, that is a deal President Donald Trump might genuinely enjoy doing. It would also send an unambiguous message to Moscow that the cost of their dealings with Turkey is the built-up defense of NATO states Russia once dominated.
