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Thread: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

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    Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    Yesterday the US, today Russia.

    Who benefits?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47101429


    Russia has suspended its involvement in the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) following a similar decision by the US. President Vladimir Putin said Russian would start developing new missiles. On Friday, the US, which has long accused Russia of violating the treaty, formally announced it was suspending its obligations under the agreement.

    Signed in 1987 by the US and USSR, it banned the use of short and medium-range missiles by both countries."Our American partners announced that they are suspending their participation in the treaty, and we are suspending it too," Mr Putin said on Saturday. "All of our proposals in this sphere, as before, remain on the table, the doors for talks are open," he added.
    “There is a smug style in American liberalism ..... It is a way of conducting politics, predicated on the belief that American life is not divided by moral difference or policy divergence ..... but by the failure of half the country to know what’s good for them.”
    - Emmett Rensin

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    Re: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    Quote Originally Posted by Westphalian View Post
    Yesterday the US, today Russia.

    Who benefits?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47101429


    Russia has suspended its involvement in the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) following a similar decision by the US. President Vladimir Putin said Russian would start developing new missiles. On Friday, the US, which has long accused Russia of violating the treaty, formally announced it was suspending its obligations under the agreement.

    Signed in 1987 by the US and USSR, it banned the use of short and medium-range missiles by both countries."Our American partners announced that they are suspending their participation in the treaty, and we are suspending it too," Mr Putin said on Saturday. "All of our proposals in this sphere, as before, remain on the table, the doors for talks are open," he added.
    Europe will put up with it just fine as long as Putin keeps the gas flowing.
    “It’s easier to run for office than to run the office.”
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    Re: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    Quote Originally Posted by Westphalian View Post
    Yesterday the US, today Russia.

    Who benefits?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47101429


    Russia has suspended its involvement in the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) following a similar decision by the US. President Vladimir Putin said Russian would start developing new missiles. On Friday, the US, which has long accused Russia of violating the treaty, formally announced it was suspending its obligations under the agreement.

    Signed in 1987 by the US and USSR, it banned the use of short and medium-range missiles by both countries."Our American partners announced that they are suspending their participation in the treaty, and we are suspending it too," Mr Putin said on Saturday. "All of our proposals in this sphere, as before, remain on the table, the doors for talks are open," he added.
    Are we then to just skip over the matter of did or did not Russia violate the deal wholesale thus it has not existed for sometime?
    My heart breaks for America......The future is going to be so much suck....Because the people mostly never cared enough to get educated.

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    Re: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    Russia has violated this treaty for years and made it something of a joke anyway....I suppose it can be a good thing to finally call them out on it.
    Illusionary

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    Re: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    Gosh, tremendous leadership by Trump, Pence, Bolton & Pompeo! TPBP

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    Re: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    The Treaty has played a key role in increasing European security by eliminating a whole class of weapons. Its destruction opens the possibility of the reverse.


    If people were knowledgeable, they would recognise that both parties have accused the other of violations. The real question is why the US is uninterested in discussions whereby both parties could resolve their concerns.

    Then comes the question of the extension of New Start in 2021. If that goes the same way as INF then virtually the entire post Cold War arms control regime will have been dismantled. That's going to be a big net negative for most people living in a world which is de-stabilising fairly rapidly.
    “There is a smug style in American liberalism ..... It is a way of conducting politics, predicated on the belief that American life is not divided by moral difference or policy divergence ..... but by the failure of half the country to know what’s good for them.”
    - Emmett Rensin

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    Re: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10 View Post
    Are we then to just skip over the matter of did or did not Russia violate the deal wholesale thus it has not existed for sometime?

    I've posted detailed independent analysis elsewhere. Both parties accuse the other of violations, and a one sided blaming of Russia (because yeah, we know in WMSM that Russia is bad and the US is good) is not consistent with the reality of this analysis.
    “There is a smug style in American liberalism ..... It is a way of conducting politics, predicated on the belief that American life is not divided by moral difference or policy divergence ..... but by the failure of half the country to know what’s good for them.”
    - Emmett Rensin

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    Re: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    Quote Originally Posted by Westphalian View Post
    Yesterday the US, today Russia.

    Who benefits?
    Actually, it makes very little difference. It must be remembered, this is just 1 of a great many treaties.

    The INF treaty was primarily concerned with eliminating both land based cruise missiles, and short to medium range land based ballistic missiles. And while Russia has been interested in returning some updated systems into service, the US has not been as interested in doing this.

    Yes, the Russians have keep the GRAU 3K12 "SLINGSHOT" system in continual testing since the treaty was first signed. But the treaty did not eliminate testing, simply in placing into active service. And like the TOMAHAWK, it is a cruise missile system.

    However, the difference here really is about actions and intents. The Russians have been actively working on a GLCM system since before the treaty was made, and continued it afterwards. While they decommissioned all GLCM systems when the INF treaty was enacted, they never stopped working on the system. And they have been actively deployed since 2017.

    The US on the other hand has not even researched them for decades.

    However, do not expect either side to go out now and rush to replace their old IRBM and SRBM systems (Iskander is kind of a strange hybrid system). I have talked to several of my ABM friends about this, and we generally agree that eventually a new treaty will be agreed upon, which will allow the existence of GLCM and other ballistic systems, so long as they remain conventional and are not nuclear systems. That was always the largest worry that led to the creating of the INF treaty in the first place. That both sides had cruise and ballistic systems which were both nuclear and conventionally armed. Which literally meant that the targeted country could never know which variant was launched until it detonated.

    Therefore any use would likely see a nuclear response.

    So long as that does not happen this time, I honestly do not see much of an issue.
    War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. - John Stuart Mill

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    Re: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    Quote Originally Posted by Westphalian View Post
    I've posted detailed independent analysis elsewhere. Both parties accuse the other of violations, and a one sided blaming of Russia (because yeah, we know in WMSM that Russia is bad and the US is good) is not consistent with the reality of this analysis.
    The main difference is that the accusations of one side are generally technical (target missiles, drone systems), while the other is actively deploying systems which specifically violate the treaty.

    Such as the claim that the HERA test rocket that the US uses to test PATRIOT and THAAD is in violation. Even though it fully complies with all aspects of the INF treaty. They are launched from an open gantry ground based launcher, from a designated and recognized testing center, and are only used to test other missile systems. All of which are specifically allowed under all arms limitation treaties, but the Russians protest anyways.

    Here is the problem with their complaint of the HERA rocket:

    I present in evidence, the INF treaty. Article VII, Paragraph 12:

    12. Each Party shall have the right to produce and use for booster systems, which might otherwise be considered to be intermediate-range or shorter-range missiles, only existing types of booster stages for such booster systems. Launches of such booster systems shall not be considered to be flight-testing of intermediate-range or shorter-range missiles provided that:

    (a) stages used in such booster systems are different from stages used in those missiles listed as existing types of intermediate-range or shorter-range missiles in Article III of this Treaty;

    (b) such booster systems are used only for research and development purposes to test objects other than the booster systems themselves;

    (c) the aggregate number of launchers for such booster systems shall not exceed 35 for each Party at any one time; and

    (d) the launchers for such booster systems are fixed, emplaced above ground and located only at research and development launch sites which are specified in the Memorandum of Understanding.

    Research and development launch sites shall not be subject to inspection pursuant to Article XI of this Treaty.
    The HERA complies with all of those specifications of the INF treaty, yet they still complain about it.

    And if anybody is actually curious about what the HERA launch location looks like, here it is:

    https://www.google.com/maps/search/w.../data=!3m1!1e3

    It is very obviously a fixed, above-ground location without an enclosed gantry.

    WSMR is really a fascinating place, and a person could spend hours exploring there from Google Maps. I used to drive by that location all the time, as well as the USS Desert Ship (LLS-1), which is another missile testing building that is used to test systems that are "technically" in violation of various treaties because it is a "fixed ground location". But because WSMR is a designated testing location they are excluded.
    War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. - John Stuart Mill

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    Re: Destruction of arms control : US and Russia formally suspend INF

    Quote Originally Posted by Westphalian View Post
    Yesterday the US, today Russia.

    Who benefits?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47101429


    Russia has suspended its involvement in the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) following a similar decision by the US. President Vladimir Putin said Russian would start developing new missiles. On Friday, the US, which has long accused Russia of violating the treaty, formally announced it was suspending its obligations under the agreement.

    Signed in 1987 by the US and USSR, it banned the use of short and medium-range missiles by both countries."Our American partners announced that they are suspending their participation in the treaty, and we are suspending it too," Mr Putin said on Saturday. "All of our proposals in this sphere, as before, remain on the table, the doors for talks are open," he added.
    Do you feel safer???

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