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Thread: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

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    Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    " country" is in no position to wage a real conflict." +1,
    comments ?

    "The week-long exercises, which kicked off yesterday, are intended as a show of might. But the country is in no position to wage a real conflict....

    Vostok is not just a big military-training drill—it’s a massive psychological-warfare operation and a geopolitical gambit, being undertaken by Russia as it regains much of its martial mojo and its ability to mount and coordinate complex operations.

    That said, there’s a difference between showing off your hardware and testing your new tactics, and actually going to war. We shouldn’t assume that Russia actually wants to fight some major conflict. If nothing else, while Vostok’s scale shows that Moscow has regained the capacity for a continental-scale operation, it could hardly afford to fight one for real. It would have a hard time mustering this kind of army during wartime, when railway lines and communication hubs would be primary targets.


    This exercise is part of what I have called “heavy-metal diplomacy”: Russia’s use of its military to overawe and misdirect the West. We’ve seen this kind of undiplomatic diplomacy at work in Europe, where Moscow has responded to debates in Sweden and Finland about joining NATO with war games simulating Russian invasions. We also see this sort of diplomacy at work in the numbers game Vladimir Putin plays. In last year’s Zapad war games, Moscow lowballed the number of soldiers participating in order to keep it below the ceiling at which Western countries would be able to send inspectors under Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe rules. This time around, the Russians seem happy to play up those numbers. But the much-hyped 300,000 figure involves much false accounting—in practice, the real figure may well be closer to 150,000, which is admittedly still an impressive tally. Judging from past examples like Zapad, many of these soldiers are unlikely to leave their barracks. They’ll be “involved” in exercises at the command post, not ones out in the field." https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...a-nato/570034/
    Karl Marx : "The bloody mire of Mongolian slavery, not the rude glory of the Norman epoch, forms the cradle of Muscovy, and modern "Russia" is but a metamorphosis of Muscovy."

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    Re: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    Quote Originally Posted by Litwin View Post
    " country" is in no position to wage a real conflict." +1,
    comments ?

    "The week-long exercises, which kicked off yesterday, are intended as a show of might. But the country is in no position to wage a real conflict....

    Vostok is not just a big military-training drill—it’s a massive psychological-warfare operation and a geopolitical gambit, being undertaken by Russia as it regains much of its martial mojo and its ability to mount and coordinate complex operations.

    That said, there’s a difference between showing off your hardware and testing your new tactics, and actually going to war. We shouldn’t assume that Russia actually wants to fight some major conflict. If nothing else, while Vostok’s scale shows that Moscow has regained the capacity for a continental-scale operation, it could hardly afford to fight one for real. It would have a hard time mustering this kind of army during wartime, when railway lines and communication hubs would be primary targets.


    This exercise is part of what I have called “heavy-metal diplomacy”: Russia’s use of its military to overawe and misdirect the West. We’ve seen this kind of undiplomatic diplomacy at work in Europe, where Moscow has responded to debates in Sweden and Finland about joining NATO with war games simulating Russian invasions. We also see this sort of diplomacy at work in the numbers game Vladimir Putin plays. In last year’s Zapad war games, Moscow lowballed the number of soldiers participating in order to keep it below the ceiling at which Western countries would be able to send inspectors under Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe rules. This time around, the Russians seem happy to play up those numbers. But the much-hyped 300,000 figure involves much false accounting—in practice, the real figure may well be closer to 150,000, which is admittedly still an impressive tally. Judging from past examples like Zapad, many of these soldiers are unlikely to leave their barracks. They’ll be “involved” in exercises at the command post, not ones out in the field." https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...a-nato/570034/
    We got our asses kicked in Iraq and Afghanistan by a bunch of rag tags running around in sandals...………. and you believe that Russia isn't a serious threat when metal meets the bone?
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    Re: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    Never underestimate your opponent - Sun Tzu
    The people who hid Anne Frank were breaking the law. The people who killed her were following it.

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    Re: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    Quote Originally Posted by RetiredUSN View Post
    We got our asses kicked in Iraq and Afghanistan by a bunch of rag tags running around in sandals...………. and you believe that Russia isn't a serious threat when metal meets the bone?
    We did not get our asses kicked in Iraq an Afghanistan. Yes, we had setbacks and casualties but we did not get our asses kicked.
    The people who hid Anne Frank were breaking the law. The people who killed her were following it.

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    Re: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    I'm serving in USAREUR and I'm never going to make the mistake of underestimating the enemy. They are a threat that need to be taken seriously.
    Nobody who wins a war indulges in a bifurcated definition of victory. War is a political act; victory and defeat have meaning only in political terms. A country incapable of achieving its political objectives at an acceptable cost is losing the war, regardless of battlefield events.

    Bifurcating victory (e.g. winning militarily, losing politically) is a useful salve for defeated armies. The "stab in the back" narrative helped take the sting out of failure for German generals after WWI and their American counterparts after Vietnam.

    All the same, it's nonsense. To paraphrase Vince Lombardi, show me a political loser, and I'll show you a loser.
    - Colonel Paul Yingling

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    Re: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    Quote Originally Posted by RetiredUSN View Post
    We got our asses kicked in Iraq and Afghanistan by a bunch of rag tags running around in sandals...………. and you believe that Russia isn't a serious threat when metal meets the bone?
    That is simply not true, or more like alternate reality talk.

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    Re: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    Quote Originally Posted by RetiredUSN View Post
    We got our asses kicked in Iraq and Afghanistan by a bunch of rag tags running around in sandals...………. and you believe that Russia isn't a serious threat when metal meets the bone?
    He said : " country" is in no position to wage a real conflict."
    He did not claim if they did engage in real conflict, that the military would not be a threat.

    We come in peace, we're a peaceful people! On the backdrop of invasion simulations. Looks like more Russian humor layered on military sabre rattling, poking at the West...because that's how we roll too when you think about it.

    Contrast that with Kim Jong, who accompanies his sabre rattlings with silly, lost in translation claims like "We'll scorch the earth of the westerners", or whatever.

    The U.S. is more deceptive.
    We are a peaceful democracy and want prosperity for all! "Wait, I'm being told we want to invade Iraq, so you know, here we go."

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    Re: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    Be polite. Be professional. But have a plan to kill everyone in the room.
    Quote Originally Posted by calamity View Post
    Reports indicate that everyone knew he was hauling a bunch of guns up there. But, since you brought it up, there's something which should be illegal: guns that breakdown.

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    Re: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    Quote Originally Posted by RetiredUSN View Post
    We got our asses kicked in Iraq and Afghanistan by a bunch of rag tags running around in sandals...………. and you believe that Russia isn't a serious threat when metal meets the bone?
    What wars did we lose in Iraq and A-stan?

    The Soviet (USSR) Intervention in Afghanistan from 1979-1989 was a long drawn out conflict that bled supposedly unending Soviet resources, and ultimately helped lead to a global shift in power. The Soviet intervention in Afghanistan was supposed to be a quick campaign to get the pro-Soviet government back on track. Ten years later and over one million people dead the USSR finally left Afghanistan.

    The Soviet defeat changed the course of world politics. As Afghanistan is an insulator state the RSC’s that surround it have influence over the country, specifically the South Asian complex, however during the Cold War superpower influence took precedence over any regional influence, the regional powers remained largely silent on the issue of Afghanistan. The major participants in the conflict were the Mujahedin, the USSR and it’s Afghani puppet government.

    The United States and other regional and global powers had big roles in supplying the rebels in order to combat the USSR. The reasons for Soviet intervention and US delegation to the Mujahedin to deal with it are the most interesting factors of the war in political terms. Regan’s theory that the Cold War made intervention more likely was proven to be correct here as ideological goals to precedence over strategic and obtainable goals. The Soviet-Afghan War is an example of this as the USSR believed it would be a short war, domestic and international pressures were met, and that intrastate conflicts during the Cold War drew the superpowers in. The US and its partner’s response to use "delegation," as Salehyan calls it, proved to be cost-effective and weakened their main adversary the Soviet Union.


    If memory serves, and it does, it was the Russians (Soviets) who lost a war in A-stan. The U.S. lost one in Vietnam.
    Last edited by Xelor; 09-14-18 at 09:22 AM.
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    Re: Don’t Fear the "Russian" Military, the country is in no position to wage a real conflict.

    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomFromAll View Post
    That is simply not true, or more like alternate reality talk.
    6,845 dead

    900,000 injured

    And after 17 years, they are still war zones.
    “It’s easier to run for office than to run the office.”
    Tip O'Niell

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