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What Would Denuclearization Look Like in North Korea?

Rogue Valley

Rogue Valley

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What Would Denuclearization Look Like in North Korea?

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The US and NK have vastly different understandings of the term denuclearization and the time-frame for full compliance.

Another related challenge is implementing a freeze on NK missile/rocket research and tests.
 
For the life of me, I don't know why there is even any discussion about what denuclearization "looks like." Nobody's talking about eradicating nuclear medicine in the DPRK. The object of the topic is nuclear weapons, and a nation's nuclear weapons status is binarily evaluable. If a nation having nuclear weapons denuclearizes, afterwards, it no longer has nuclear weapons. If the nation keeps even one, it has not denuclearized.


The lesser of two evils is still evil.
- Michael Marcavage​
 
The term "denuclearization" is pretty subjective and doesn't really mean anything. The magic word that seems to be missing is 'disarmament', which is much more specific to the WH's objectives.

Until we see North Korea actually come out and say they're committed to disarmament, we can only assume this summit is a ruse to play Trump.

I expect KJU will offer to formally end the Korean war and allow Trump to take the credit. So the North gets their photos, Trump gets a "win" handed to him, but no deal is made on the nukes.

I might end up being wrong, but its what I expect to happen.
 
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All three of North Korea’s top military officials have been replaced, which may show Kim's willingness to make concessions to the United States on the denuclearization issue. I think North Korean military hardliners have obstructed the peace process and they even objected to the face-to-face meeting with President Trump.

Opposition from the country’s powerful armed forces could limit how far Kim is willing to go in dismantling his nuclear arsenal. At a minimum Kim could cite those concerns to Trump as an excuse for moving slowly with denuclearization, Bennett said.

The generals probably disapprove of his “seeming willingness to make concessions” with the United States, said Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul.

The military is one of the most powerful institutions in North Korea, and its top leaders view the country's nuclear arsenal as essential to its influence in the country.

Kim's latest overhaul may be designed to quell that opposition, though it is unclear whether Kim’s action is aimed at eliminating a threat before it emerged or whether he is reacting to growing discontent among military leaders.
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i doubt that they are going to denuclearize. they might see what they can get for giving up a couple of them while pretending to denuclearize, but the majority of the weapons will just be hidden under a mountain somewhere.
 
If North Korea denuclearizes and doesn't become a puppet to the United States they will be invaded, the Kim regime overthrown and replaced with a puppet government.
 
Helix said:
i doubt that they are going to denuclearize. they might see what they can get for giving up a couple of them while pretending to denuclearize, but the majority of the weapons will just be hidden under a mountain somewhere.
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Then there will be no treaty.
 
American said:
Then there will be no treaty.
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Do you think Trump will push for a “official” end to the ‘police action?’

I think the President want to return with something he can trumpet other than a ‘get to know you’ meeting.
 
ALTOY459 said:
If North Korea denuclearizes and doesn't become a puppet to the United States they will be invaded, the Kim regime overthrown and replaced with a puppet government.
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Wrong.
 
American said:
I hate their hats.
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Whaddya mean, I love their hats! They fulfill the purpose of making the wearer look like a member of a paper tiger military regime.
You've probably noticed that the more impotent the dictatorship, the larger the hats and the stiffer the goosestep.
The last thing I'd want to see on a DPRK military officer is a normal hat, it would make them look dignified.

Their hats are hilarious, which is why I absolutely love them.
 
Casper said:
Wrong.
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Why, after all the money NK has spent, would they ever consider denuclearizing? They are going to trust Trump and his administration.............?
 
MovingPictures said:
The term "denuclearization" is pretty subjective and doesn't really mean anything. The magic word that seems to be missing is 'disarmament', which is much more specific to the WH's objectives.

Until we see North Korea actually come out and say they're committed to disarmament, we can only assume this summit is a ruse to play Trump.

I expect KJU will offer to formally end the Korean war and allow Trump to take the credit. So the North gets their photos, Trump gets a "win" handed to him, but no deal is made on the nukes.

I might end up being wrong, but its what I expect to happen.
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North Korea has the largest standing army in the world. Why?

Because the US has implanted 5,000,000 mines and has enough firepower on the DMZ to destroy little Kim land. THEY aren't going to cut anything, the nukes they have now or are building until someone starts talking about losing a few of the mines at least.

As long as the US has more fire power in South Korea than it does in all of Europe the North isn't going to even say "disarm" let alone do it
 
Floridafan said:
Why, after all the money NK has spent, would they ever consider denuclearizing? They are going to trust Trump and his administration.............?
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I don't think Kim looks at spending the way Western democracies do.
Money is just a means to an end, and I am convinced that no matter how much he has spent on the nuke weapons program, if he sees an overall tactical and political advantage to promising denuclearization, he'll go for it.
The question is, what does Kim see as an advantage?
I doubt it has anything to do with what Westerners, particularly the Trump administration thinks.

Don't forget, North Korea is backed by China, and is almost utterly dependent upon China, and China is also calling a lot of the shots behind the scenes.
I remain convinced that when Xi called that meeting with Kim immediately after the disastrous mountain nuke test, it was Xi who motivated Kim into considering denuclearization. I still say Xi heard the news that a mountain "collapsed" under an H-bomb test, and decided, "Enough is enough, time to tell that fat little North Korean bastard to stop playing with dangerous toys OR ELSE."

That failed test has put both China and Russia in danger. It is now a major radioactive nuclear contamination site, and it sits very close to the border of both countries, especially China.
 
ThirdTerm said:
All three of North Korea’s top military officials have been replaced, which may show Kim's willingness to make concessions to the United States on the denuclearization issue. I think North Korean military hardliners have obstructed the peace process and they even objected to the face-to-face meeting with President Trump.
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Interesting you would raise that. However I don't know from the cited piece originates. However, the problem with North Korea is they are a reality show. They will "allow" facts to leak out, like food shortages when there aren't any. They hint they have nukes, then deny, then set one off and 'warn" America.

All the while US forces are constantly testing, constantly pressing from land, sea and sky....making the whole country paranoid beyond what we can comprehend.

I once interviewed a diplomat who had worked on North Korea from the south. He told me that the biggest mistake the west will make with Korea is the one the west ALWAYS makes and assumes the target country has a similar world view. We don't stop to consider that majority may just support their government
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
I don't think Kim looks at spending the way Western democracies do.
Money is just a means to an end, and I am convinced that no matter how much he has spent on the nuke weapons program, if he sees an overall tactical and political advantage to promising denuclearization, he'll go for it.
The question is, what does Kim see as an advantage?
I doubt it has anything to do with what Westerners, particularly the Trump administration thinks.

Don't forget, North Korea is backed by China, and is almost utterly dependent upon China, and China is also calling a lot of the shots behind the scenes.
I remain convinced that when Xi called that meeting with Kim immediately after the disastrous mountain nuke test, it was Xi who motivated Kim into considering denuclearization. I still say Xi heard the news that a mountain "collapsed" under an H-bomb test, and decided, "Enough is enough, time to tell that fat little North Korean bastard to stop playing with dangerous toys OR ELSE."

That failed test has put both China and Russia in danger. It is now a major radioactive nuclear contamination site, and it sits very close to the border of both countries, especially China.
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Then this meeting would be all about China, and little to do with trump? I agree.
 
Floridafan said:
Why, after all the money NK has spent, would they ever consider denuclearizing? They are going to trust Trump and his administration.............?
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They aren't, neither are we going to invade the North.
 
Denuclearization by Kim looks like bucks from Seoul and Kim trying to wring some green stuff out of Trump. Kim's chances with Seoul are better but given Trump will say and agree to anything person to person Kim will surely try to charm our big guy to open your wallet and mine. After all, denuclearization costs bucks that have to come from somewhere, such as the people who want it to occur most.

This looks to be in the works despite all the hard lessons of the past, i.e., Kim extorting bunches of bucks with the false promises of ending bad behaviors. Atrocious behaviors in fact.


Kim has advanced some younger generals who'd been deputy this and vice that because the time has come for these guyz to move up into the big bucks league. Bucks For Loyalty let's call it. The old Stuffed Hats have been sent out to their inevitable pasture to sit on their fortunes for the rest of their dayze.


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General Su, General Ri and General No with Dear Leader Kim Jong Un.


The new defense minister for instance, No Gwang Chol got moved up by Kim from first vice minister. Beyond absolute loyalty to Kim III, Gen. No is known for overseeing the military’s financial priorities as the chair of the Second Economy Commission. It's likely indeed that No operates on the Paul Manafort principles of money gathering, swindling and laundering not to mention not reporting it. It's said Gen. No is the big wheel of the three new guyz.

The SK official news agency Yonhap cited intelligence sources to report that the new chief of the general staff Ri Yong Gil was moved up to the big bucks pinnacle from his position as deputy chief.

Kim put Gen. Su Gil in the director's chair of the military’s powerful General Political Bureau (GPB). SK intelligence knows this Bureau is a high finance operation run on illicit trade, counterfeiting and Mafia Rules.

They're all looking forward to a new influx of bucks for denuking whatever that may come out to mean and be. Given the advancements and promotions by Kim III were routine they may be on to something.

In the US we have the military chain of command while in NK they have the stuffed hats chain of money.
 
Floridafan said:
Then this meeting would be all about China, and little to do with trump? I agree.
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Not ALL about China but it would indeed behoove this administration to remember the gestalt of the China-DPRK relationship, its history, its shared goals and its potential future. They should liken it to trying to hammer out deals with East Germany while the USSR is standing right behind them.
And I have my doubt as to whether they see the analogy.
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
Whaddya mean, I love their hats! They fulfill the purpose of making the wearer look like a member of a paper tiger military regime.
You've probably noticed that the more impotent the dictatorship, the larger the hats and the stiffer the goosestep.
The last thing I'd want to see on a DPRK military officer is a normal hat, it would make them look dignified.

Their hats are hilarious, which is why I absolutely love them.
Click to expand...


What's particularly amusing to moi is the fruit salad of both the NK and CCP military personnel. This includes officers and enlisted. In each of the NK and CCP armed forces your chest ribbons are based on years of service -- and your rank. It's explained below. While each NK and the CCP have combat ribbons to represent actual medals, neither armed force has been in any kind of actual war for so long that almost no active duty member has a combat medal. This includes of course being wounded in action. Nuthin.


Check out the chief of the PLA and his fruit salad. It looks like a neat pattern of repeating colors and designs drawn by the numbers in a prison art class by the criminally insane. You can take a closer look if you'd like but there's a closeup of the generals chest ribbons below and it is both identified and discussed.....

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The closeup is of the general's fruit salad on his class A blouse so there's some lapel covering a couple of ribbons....

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The general's ribbons were in seven rows, a number reserved for the highest ranking officers.

He wore a total of 21 [3x7] ribbons, although two were obscured by his jacket lapel. His ribbons included five one year service ribbons [the green ribbon with the central red stripe], two year service ribbons [the blue ribbon with two white stripe], at least three three year service ribbons [the beige ribbon with three red stripes], and four four-year service ribbons [the grey ribbon with four yellow stripes].

These length of service ribbons were arranged in a reapeating 1,2,3,4 pattern. The identity of the yellow ribbon with the star in the top row is not widely attested in the open literature, but officers typically wear a red or yellow ribbon in that location with one or more stars.




Here's another example of chest ribbons based on years of service and rank. This one is selected for display at random. The more years in and the higher rank you are, the more ribbons you get.

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We can see the AF and the PLA officers have the identical years of service, i.e., identical ribbons and arrangement. The Navy officer has fewer years of service. The AF officer is a captain while the Army officer is a major. Unlike in the USA and in Western military forces in general, where there is a significant difference between captain and major, in the China armed forces there is not. The PLA Navy officer is a LT (equivalent to Army captain).

The gold braid/cord indicates assignment to the state official ceremonial unit. We can see the loser AF capt in particular sleeps in the identical position to include his eyes. At least the Army major expresses some personality -- indeed and as we can see, the major is not quite Han. That is, he's not a formal and blank carbon based unit only. The major's hands are relaxed rather than rigid which means his fingers are not extended downward against the seam of the trousers. The PLA Navy LT looks like he needs to set foot on an actual ship.
 
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