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Air combat drones have been developed

late said:
Our carriers are reasonably well protected. But what if China throws ten waves of autonomous drones, a hundred in each wave. At some point, ammo runs out, guns jam, mistakes get made. Cheap at twice the price, as the saying goes.
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This is exactly one of the scenarios that will become all too real.

DARPA is currently working on "clouds" of small and highly maneuverable drones (with variable kinetic payload) imbued with AI that coordinate with each other during the attack phase.

One drone will sacrifice itself so ten others can succeed. It is virtually impossible for a defender to account for all the incoming drones.
 
WillyPete said:
I was responding to the idea that the advent of combat drones directed by AI was going to narrow the gap between first world and third world militaries.

I have no doubt that all sorts of nations of all sizes and development levels will come up with all sorts of creative and destructive uses for drones, and AI will only make that easier.

That said, I still don't see how it will do anything except make the "have/have not" gap in military power wider.

The nations that can afford them (and have access to them) will have a clear edge and plenty of motivation to make sure it's a small club (just like nukes.)
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They cant make it a small club. Everyone has the means and knowhow to produce drones its simply a matter of degree as to the relative capabilities. It will come down to capabilities vs. cost. more than anything else.
 
late said:
You've got countries that want, and need, to upgrade their military but have limited funds.

That demand will create the market, and sooner than you think.

They won't be as fancy as what we have, but they will be a huge improvement in a lot of countries.

Our carriers are reasonably well protected. But what if China throws ten waves of autonomous drones, a hundred in each wave. At some point, ammo runs out, guns jam, mistakes get made. Cheap at twice the price, as the saying goes.
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You put drones on those same carriers and you can really jack up their striking power. Drones are a double edged sword. Also remember that for every action there is a reaction, hence the Navy putting lasers on their ships now.
 
PirateMk1 said:
You put drones on those same carriers and you can really jack up their striking power. Drones are a double edged sword. Also remember that for every action there is a reaction, hence the Navy putting lasers on their ships now.
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Dime of offense beats a buck of defense...usually.
 
WillyPete said:
I was responding to the idea that the advent of combat drones directed by AI was going to narrow the gap between first world and third world militaries.

I have no doubt that all sorts of nations of all sizes and development levels will come up with all sorts of creative and destructive uses for drones, and AI will only make that easier.

That said, I still don't see how it will do anything except make the "have/have not" gap in military power wider.

The nations that can afford them (and have access to them) will have a clear edge and plenty of motivation to make sure it's a small club (just like nukes.)
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Ai drones are not going to be a common thing for a very very long time, atleast pure ai, they may make some able to determine targets and plan evasions but drones would still be guided one way or another externally, which would make them vulnerable to jamming.


The other thing is I see drones as the replacement for things like tomohawk missiles, less valuable assets you send into areas where logistics support awacs and air defence are not present, and where hostile enemies are, they make attacking isolated targets easier and more cost effective without loss of life. But when we get to the have and have nots, even isis and syrian rebels have built drones, anyone can build drones, heck we live in the age where rc planes rc jets and even rc drones can be bought or made from parts freely available and modified for higher range or even rigged with weapons, any third world country could technichally build them.
 
late said:
First time anyone anywhere gets serious, the gloves come off.
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I thought it was already serious when trump nearly got us into ww3 with russia in april, or when russia went around jamming not just drones but special forces c-130 planes.
 
beerftw said:
I thought it was already serious when trump nearly got us into ww3 with russia in april, or when russia went around jamming not just drones but special forces c-130 planes.
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When one side deploys a fleet of autonomous drones, that's what I meant by serious.

Putin is playing games. He can't afford to get serious, so if he does, it's because his back is against the wall. Doubt even Trump is that dumb, but you never know.
 
late said:
When one side deploys a fleet of autonomous drones, that's what I meant by serious.

Putin is playing games. He can't afford to get serious, so if he does, it's because his back is against the wall. Doubt even Trump is that dumb, but you never know.
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He does not have to with drones, if he were serious he would just use electronic warfare to disable them. If a swarm of drones was a simple method of warfare, the united states would have already used it, but fact is they are externally controlled, which means they can be jammed in mass, while traditional aircraft still work with manual control of the pilot.

Oh and the putin can not afford to be serious thing, russia right before the april 15 missile strike had not only the s300/s400 systems on standby there, he had anti ship submarines and corvettes and frigates loaded with kalibr cruise missiles. Besides that he had naval migs and tu-22m bombers on standby in short notice striking distance with kh-15m anti ship missiles which are technichally hypersonic. The seriousness was the russian military was on standby to eradicate all allied naval and air assets operating near syria in retaliation, and the guy who stopped it and talked some sense into the trump administration was mattis.

The russian did not want to retaliate but begged and pleaded for sanity among allied forces, they could not really afford the costs but were still able to retaliate none the less, and I imagine there were warhawks in the west hoping russia would sink the fleet and shoot down the planes just to justify full scale war.
 
beerftw said:
He does not have to with drones, if he were serious he would just use electronic warfare to disable them. If a swarm of drones was a simple method of warfare, the united states would have already used it, but fact is they are externally controlled, which means they can be jammed in mass, while traditional aircraft still work with manual control of the pilot.

Oh and the putin can not afford to be serious thing, russia right before the april 15 missile strike had not only the s300/s400 systems on standby there, he had anti ship submarines and corvettes and frigates loaded with kalibr cruise missiles. Besides that he had naval migs and tu-22m bombers on standby in short notice striking distance with kh-15m anti ship missiles which are technichally hypersonic. The seriousness was the russian military was on standby to eradicate all allied naval and air assets operating near syria in retaliation, and the guy who stopped it and talked some sense into the trump administration was mattis.

The russian did not want to retaliate but begged and pleaded for sanity among allied forces, they could not really afford the costs but were still able to retaliate none the less, and I imagine there were warhawks in the west hoping russia would sink the fleet and shoot down the planes just to justify full scale war.
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Serious conflicts cost serious money. Russia has an economy the same size that Italy has.

That was brinkmanship, we blinked. We were idiots to put ourselves in that position.

Putin can't afford to put a large amount of money anywhere, in his last budget he had to give the military big budget cut. A cut that big here would make the war lovers psychotic.

Oh, wait..

Kekistan?
 
beerftw said:
He does not have to with drones, if he were serious he would just use electronic warfare to disable them. If a swarm of drones was a simple method of warfare, the united states would have already used it, but fact is they are externally controlled, which means they can be jammed in mass, while traditional aircraft still work with manual control of the pilot.
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They already had been doing exactly that.

The Russian military has been jamming some U.S. military drones operating in the skies over Syria, seriously affecting American military operations, according to four U.S. officials.

The Russians began jamming some smaller U.S. drones several weeks ago, the officials said, after a series of suspected chemical weapons attacks on civilians in rebel-held eastern Ghouta. The Russian military was concerned the U.S. military would retaliate for the attacks and began jamming the GPS systems of drones operating in the area, the officials explained.
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/russia-has-figured-out-how-jam-u-s-drones-syria-n863931

This is why I shake my head at the babbling of the Drone Fanbois, who preach to the rooftops that it is the next big thing. Ignoring all of the examples right around them which show why it is not going to be the next big thing.

Drones will remain in use in regions without a sophisticated opponent. When even Iran can bring down one of our drones without firing a shot, it shows that they are not useful as many claim.
 
Oozlefinch said:
Yea, to bad it will never happen. Drones are far to easy to defeat.
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Then you better inform the Pentagon and DoD that they're wasting billions on technology that is passe.

The U.S. military’s spending on drones is set to reach a five-year high. The Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2018 budget request contains $6.97 billion for drone-related procurement, research and development, and system-specific construction.
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Drones in the FY 2018 Defense Budget
 
Rogue Valley said:
Then you better inform the Pentagon and DoD that they're wasting billions on technology that is passe.
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You need to learn reading comprehension a bit better.

Here, let me say it once again, ok?

Oozlefinch said:
Drones will remain in use in regions without a sophisticated opponent. When even Iran can bring down one of our drones without firing a shot, it shows that they are not useful as many claim.
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Do not try to twist what I said into something completely different, I was rather clear and specific in what I said.

Drones do have a use, especially against combatants that are not technologically sophisticated, like what we are facing in Iraq and Afghanistan. Against a nation-state with much more technological capabilities (like Iran or Russia), they are much less useful.

Will they continue to have a use? Of course they will. Will they replace fighters and bombers as the weapons of the future? Of course not.
 
Oozlefinch said:
They already had been doing exactly that.


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/russia-has-figured-out-how-jam-u-s-drones-syria-n863931

This is why I shake my head at the babbling of the Drone Fanbois, who preach to the rooftops that it is the next big thing. Ignoring all of the examples right around them which show why it is not going to be the next big thing.

Drones will remain in use in regions without a sophisticated opponent. When even Iran can bring down one of our drones without firing a shot, it shows that they are not useful as many claim.
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Anything externally controlled can be jammed, seeing how the dod uses drones I am sure they are fully aware of the fact. Maybe someone can build a drone that runs off a 100 mile long ethernet cabe, who knows.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Then you better inform the Pentagon and DoD that they're wasting billions on technology that is passe.



Drones in the FY 2018 Defense Budget
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They are spending more on them because drones are replacing cruise missiles slowly for missions where we need to spy or hit a faraway target in hostile areas where logistics do not support it. If a drone goes down no one cries a river, however they are not used in areas where heavy ew is present, since they will be pretty much useless at that point, while conventional aircraft still have manual control through the pilot.
 
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